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Trading Back Brings Its Own Set of Issues

Analysis: If the Bears took Pittsburgh's 17th pick in a trade back in Round 1, several three-round mocks show the problems and possible solutions they would face.
Gene Chamberlain|
Trading Back Brings Its Own Set of Issues
Trading Back Brings Its Own Set of Issues

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Chicago Bears

The idea of a Bears trade back with Pittsburgh in Round 1 gained momentum  Monday with Peter King's report that the Steelers wanted to do this if they could get Jalen Carter.

Well, the Bears might want to keep Carter. No one can be sure at this point, but they did visit with him both at the combine and at Halas Hall.

The trade is the thing being studied here, though, and not necessarily Carter. If the Bears trade down to No. 17, it would no doubt impact their ability to address other needs with top talent even if they get an extra pick for Round 2 in return. There would be a trade off because the really better talent may not hold up until well into Round 2.

Simply put, this is not a good draft although there are a few positions deep in talent.

The Bears really need first- or second-round talent at tackle, defensive tackle and defensive end. They could use a cornerback as well.

How would the trade back impact them? It's always easier to illustrate with an example.

Turning to the same mock draft simulator used for BearDigest mocks, it's easy to see the Bears should take a tackle in Round 1 because there is great talent but the position supply is top heavy. 

The simulator was run three times through the Bears' first three rounds in order to properly reflect what they could expected by trading down with Pittsburgh. In one simulation they drafted a tackle first, then an edge rusher and then a defensive tackle.

Fortunately the mock simulator allows trades to be forced and it had to be forced to let the Bears move back to 17 and still receive the 49th pick and a fourth-rounder as compensation. It's the least the Steelers should give the Bears in compensation for a player of Carter's ability.

Here's what the Bears can expect if they move back.

1. Defensive Tackle at No. 17

After the trade, three technique Calijah Kancey was their defensive line choice. It's not clear they think a defensive tackle this small (280) can be a regular three tech in their scheme but this is a mock and he was the best defensive tackle available at No. 17.

By taking Kancey, it resulted in a real problem at offensive tackle. The tackle available to them when pick No. 49 came up for the Bears was one graded as a clear late third-round pick. It was Wanya Morris from Oklahoma. All of the other top tackles were gone by then, including projected late second- or  third-rounder Matthew Bergeron of Syracuse.

There would be a potentially good defensive end here, though. Keion White from Georiga Tech might be considered too big by some to be an edge rusher at 6-5, 285. That's right in the wheelhouse for Matt Eberflus' defensive scheme. And he's not just big, he's also very fast.

So they took White and the next pick was going to be no better for tackle, obviously, because it's only three picks later at 52. They did find Tyrique Stevenson, the Miami cornerback who is projected to be a good slot cornerback. The Bears can definitely use this.

Nine picks later, the tackle spot still isn't an option yet and the pick is going to be Luke Wypler from Ohio State, a center who is one of the top players at his position. It's a need for the Bears and in this class Wypler is among the top three in a very good group of centers.

Finally, the Bears will get their offensive tackle but it's going to be a complete reach. At No. 64 to start Round 3, the best tackle available is Morris from Oklahoma. He's graded late third round. It was either reach here for him or forget tackle. 

At 6-5, 307 and with good mobility, he can fit this blocking scheme well. The real problem Morris had was he was a terrible pass blocker when he started college, getting a 20.9 pass-blocking grade in his first year from Pro Football Focus. However, by last year he'd ascended to a spot as pass blocker that was well above average.

2. Edge Rusher at No. 17

Maybe it's why they brought him in for a visit, but the best choice at No. 17 if they go edge rusher first is Nolan Smith in this mock. Smith is undersized as a 3-4 outside linebacker, but could be used like Micah Parsons, all over the formation. His 4.39-second speed makes this something the Bears don't get from other edge rushers.

So what does this leave them at offensive tackle? They'd face exactly the same option at 49 as if they took Kancey first. There won't be a tackle they would find as an option until Morris by reaching at No. 64.

In this simulation, they again got Stevenson but at No. 49. Keion Johnson was there, too, but why would they take him if they already drafted Smith? They already have big edges in DeMarcus Walker and Rasheem Green. It makes little sense drafting two edges with two picks.

At No. 52, their good fortune in this simulation was center Joe Tippmann fell to them. The Wisconsin center might be the best or second-best player at his position, and it's a good year for centers. Unlike others, he's bigger at 6-6 and has the capability of playing guard well and possibly even tackle.

At No. 61, they still needed a three technique and Wisconsin's Keanu Benton became the pick. Benton might be a better one technique but also can play three because of his extreme quickness.

Finally, at No. 64, they reach again for Morris because they have to get a tackle. 

3. Tackle at No. 17

At No. 17, the simulator projected both Paris Johnson Jr. and Peter Skoronski would be gone but they could still have the ability to draft Tennessee's Darnell Wright. It was an easy pick as a player who played right tackle and is rated six or seven spots higher than where they would get him in this simulation.

So there is no need to worry about reaching for a tackle in Round 3 like Morris, now.

And in this mock, they find Stevenson the best pick again at No. 49.  They could have drafted White if he had been there and this would have solved their edge issues. However, he was picked already and the edge rush options were all players who could get drafted in Round 3.  

This the problem. The edge rusher and defensive tackle supply are going to wane here, perhaps not as quickly as tackle would if they selected defense first, but it will just the same. 

At 52, they found Wisconsin's Benton and at 61 Tippmann.

Still needing an edge, they bit the bullet and take Army's Andre Carter at No. 64. It's not that Carter lacks talent. In fact, with 15 1/2 sacks last year only Alabama's Will Anderson Jr. had more with 17 1/2. He had his sacks against a weaker slate of opponents and you have to wonder how he'll hold up against NFL competition.

It used to be taking a player at the military schools meant waiting on them to complete their obligation to the U.S. government but they've found work-arounds since those days.

The Solution

There are two ideal ways to solve the drop in talent level the Bears will encounter by drafting so far down in Rounds 2-3, at No. 52, 61 and 64.

One is not to trade with Pittsburgh at all and if Carter falls to them then they've solved both their three technique and edge rushing problem. Carter is that good so he can flush quarterbacks out toward whoever they have playing the end positions.  

The other way is to take the trade down and then in Round 2 deal away picks to try to move back up into Round 1 or near the top of Round 2. They'd still have either the 64th pick or the 52nd or 64th pick and could take a higher quality player in Round 1 than they would find late in Round 2.

The Bears should be seeking quality over quantity this year. It's not 2022 when they had only three picks before the fifth round. They don't need to sit around hoping they hit on a seventh-round pick. That almost never happens. They have drafted one effective seventh-rounder in the last decade and that was Charles Leno Jr. in 2014.

The odds are better of first- second- or third-round picks coming through and the Bears need quality. They don't have as many roster holes as last year, so giving up a pick for more quality makes sense in  Round 1 or early Round 2. 

It can help prevent the problem of a talent drop-off found in this simulation, one they'll no doubt encounter whether they do trade back in Round 1 to No. 17 or not.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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