What to Expect from Ryan Poles Second Try

There will be great anticipation for this Bears draft, and not simply because they have a first-round pick for only the second time since they drafted Roquan Smith in 2018.

It's caused by the fact no one really knows what to expect from general manager Ryan Poles.

Poles has one draft class to his credit, but much like last year's free agency it was very limited. No one can be sure how successful he and this scouting group are at finding and selecting talent based on that limited sample size.

They had a mixed amount of success last year, which earned Poles praise in some circles. What he did show was a willingness to go back in the draft to improve his numbers. For that fact alone, Poles won praise as a resourceful GM. From six picks, they wound up with 11. Four trades back netted five extra picks he didn't have last year.

He may need to do the opposite at times this year because he has 10 picks, and it's quality he should be seeking to build the roster now rather than sheer numbers.

Everything last year was all still very limited and the reason was they only had three picks before the 168th selection in Round 5, none in Round 1 and none in Round 4.

No general manager is going to achieve much off fifth-, sixth- and seventh-round picks. That was stop-gap.

For example, last year there were 24 cornerbacks drafted on Day 3 and only seven who averaged a tackle a game, only four who made interceptions. The Seahawks made out as bandits last year, getting starting cornerback Tariq Woolen and his six interceptions in Round 5 and Coby Bryant with his 52 tackles in Round 4.

If you sat down and objectively looked at Poles' first draft, you'd give him an "A" for being clever and a "C" for talent evaluation.

He identified Kyler Gordon and Jaquan Brisker as needs and took them in Round 2. Both worked out, Brisker immediately and Gordon eventually.

Yet, in doing so he limited his ability to find Justin Fields a receiver until early Round 3 and then took Velus Jones Jr., who had seven catches and two muffed punts.

By then, the supply of potential targets had dwindled. Taking Brisker instead of Georgia's George Pickens robbed Fields of big-play X-type receiver. He could have easily taken Romeo Doubs in Round 3. Doubs went to the Packers in Round 4 and was the only receiver taken on Day 3 with more than 10 receptions. He made 42. The Bears had no wide receivers with 42 receptions last year.

Doubs was one of only two receivers taken after the second round with more than 23 receptions, the other having been Purdue's George Bell. And like Doubs, the Bears could have drafted him instead of Jones and had greater output than they got from Jones Jr., Equanimeous St. Brown or Dante Pettis.

Or Poles could have taken Pickens and drafted Kerby Joseph at safety later. The Illinois safety who went to Detroit had four interceptions, although he isn't the bigger safety type that Brisker is.

So this will be Poles' first attempt at a real draft, no restraints. Here's what we know of his strengths and weaknesses based on last year.

1. Strengths

Offensive Line

Poles should know this because he was a Bears lineman, albeit very briefly and never in a regular-season game. His assistant, Ian Cunningham, had a background as a lineman as well.

They found Braxton Jones in the fifth round, a total surprise from Southern Utah. He had the highest Pro Football Focus grade of any rookie offensive lineman in the NFL last season at any position. His rank among players at his position wasn't the highest of rookies, but his grade was highest.

Finding any rookie offensive lineman who started most of the games is tough enough, let alone one who starts all 17 and grades out at the same level as Orlando Brown Jr. and ahead of tackles like Mike McGlinchey, Terence Steele, D.J. Humphries, Taylor Decker and Tyler Smith.

As for the rest of his line picks last year, it's inconclusive. Center Doug Kramer was a sixth-rounder and even less could be expected from him. But he was injured in training camp and never played. Also in Round 6, he drafted guard Zachary Thomas and in Round 7 guard Ja'Tyre Carter. Thomas apparently has some talent because the Bears chose to cut him and put him on the practice squad and the Rams came along and stole him. As for Carter, he got on the field for 31 plays in three games in a year when they could have used some effective depth at the position due to numerous line injuries.

So it wasn't a smashing success, but finding an effective Round 5 starter at left tackle, where it's hard enough to find them in Round 1, is easily Poles' greatest accomplishment.

Secondary

As mentioned, both Gordon and Brisker came through. In Gordon's case, it helped immensely to move him more to the outside at the end of the season instead of using him in the slot. He made two of his three interceptions after injuries forced them to do this. Brisker not only led them in sacks as a safety, but also had an interception.

The other draft pick in the defensive backfield was Elijah Hicks, their seventh-round safety. He's full of energy, effort and tackles well. His coverage ability comes into question with two touchdown passes allowed and a 158.3 passer rating against when targeted, the worst rating anyone can have.

As a seventh-rounder, it's too soon to call this a failed pick. And considering it was so late in the draft, at that point you're only hoping to find someone who can play special teams and occasionally help in a pinch. Last year there were 30 cornerbacks and safeties taken in the last four rounds according to Sportradar and only 12 of those averaged a tackle a game or more. Only nine made an interception.

If you're going to play the DB/draft game, you also need to include the undrafted rookie contributors. Poles' staff was able to identify Eagles waived rookie Joshua Blackwell and undrafted Mississippi cornerback Jaylon Jones as potential contributors. Jones played almost half the defensive reps last year and Blackwell wound up with 23 tackles.

Weaknesses

Wide Receiver

Besides the mistake made with second-round/third-round receivers already mentioned, it's at least worth mentioning Poles recognized where there could be a drop in receiver talent this year and took action ahead of time by acquiring DJ Moore.

There is no receiver he could have had the chance to take in Round 2 this year who looks to be as good as Moore. In fact, Moore might be better than all of the receivers in this draft, including Jaxon Smith Njigba. Actually, something similar could be said for Chase Claypool even if his initial attempts as a Bears receiver achieved nothing. Based on his past production, he looks like a superior choice to most of the second-round receivers available this year. Still, that mistake last year with Pickens and Doubs is a blotch on the record.

Edge Rusher

Dominique Robinson clearly did not work out as a rookie edge rusher after a smashing success in his debut. Even though he played 17 games and started seven, he had no sacks or quarterback hits after the opener, and just two total tackles for loss. There may have been activity but no productivity.

And Robinson is the only defensive lineman they drafted. No undrafted defensive line rookie stuck on the roster, so there is no success at this position.

Poles really didn't have much of a supply to fall back on in the draft at this position if he hadn't drafted Robinson. Green Bay took Kingsley Enagbare five picks after Robinson and he did make three sacks. Finding success so late in the draft might have taken some real creativity, like, say, drafting a 225-pound linebacker and putting some weight on him, then using him on the edge in passing situations. The Lions did this, and James Houston had eight sacks as a sixth-rounder. Eight sacks was second-most in the rookie edge-rushing class.

The good thing for Poles is he's going to get his chance to reverse this trend because drafting one or two edge rushers now is a necessity.

Running Back

There is only a very small sample size here but Trestan Ebner did not work out as a rookie. He had a chance to help when both David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert had injuries, but 24 carries for 54 yards, two catches for 8 yards and a dropped pass indicate how little they got from this pick on offense. He did show promise on kick returns with a 22.6-yard average for 10 tries. But they had far better productivity from Velus Jones Jr. in this area.

Poles missed out on the real chance for a smash success here. The Chiefs took Isiah Pacheco 48 picks after Poles drafted Ebner. Pacheco outrushed all but three other NFL rookies while proving a key to a second Super Bowl ring for Andy Reid's team.

Still to Come

Linebacker

They used one-year contracts with veterans to fill out their linebacker corps last year without drafting anyone. Jack Sanborn's rookie production as an undrafted free agent indicates they at least can identify talent and he could turn this around in 2023 because they could stand to add one later in the draft for depth. Special teams benefit greatly from young, backup linebackers and they could add some of these players.

Tight End

It's possible they'd draft a tight end this year with both Cole Kmet and newly acquired Robert Tonyan Jr. slated for free agency after this season. The only tight ends they added last year in undrafted free agency where Chase Allen and Jake Tonges, and neither had a role.

Quarterback

The veteran route has been used to backup Fields but with a full slate of picks it's possible they'd try to find someone to develop behind their starter within this offensive system. If not a Brock Purdy, who is an instant smash success and now Mr. Relevant, then a QB like Cooper Rush, who is around Dallas' offense for years and then is successful when called upon.

Defensive Tackle

Poles is about to get his chance to impress everyone for the first time because they can use one, if not two. It looks to be a Day 1 or 2 selection, too. There wasn't much of an opportunity for him at what was also a need position last year. Not a single defensive tackle drafted played last year, so they had that crop properly analyzed. No defensive tackle drafted in 2022 had more than 2 1/2 sacks and only five even had half a sack. Only three even had double-digit tackles. It's expected to be a somewhat better selection this year.

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