Who to Start and Sit: Bears and Packers

Returning to play after a long time away or a short time away can be a tricky thing for players and even trickier for fantasy football owners who have them in the lineup.

The Bears return two key offensive performers this week and it would be easy to anticipate Justin Fields and Allen Robinson both pick up their performances somewhere near the point where they left off, for Fields on Nov. 21 and for Robinson on Nov. 8.

This isn't going to be the case considering the opponent. Green Bay's defense has been the force dictating who wins Bears and Packers games over the last three years, not so much Aaron Rodgers.

Only once in the last five games did the Bears score more than 16 points and that came in a game when they were already losing 41-10 partly because the Packers defense turned it into an early blowout with a return for a touchdown.

Both Fields and Robinson figure to have a rough time at Lambeau Field as they come off injuries.

Here's who to start and who to sit in the Bears-Packers matchup at Lambeau Field.

Start 'Em

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers

Don't worry about the toe or the fact he has practiced once since Nov. 26. Rodgers has played long enough and in this offense to know what buttons to push.

He has thrown 10 touchdown passes in the last three games against the Bears and is 76 of 95 without an interception. People see his stats and assume he is throwing for big yardage against them. The Bears have actually done a good job limiting his yardage but they can't stop everything, particularly Green Bay's running game and short-passing game, and then Rodgers hits the pass in the red zone. They haven't allowed him more than 240 passing yards since 2018.

Packers WR Davante Adams

Jaylon Johnson is overmatched trying to handle Adams one on one, but anyone else the Bears could put on him would fare worse. The Bears need to have double teams on Adams as much as possible and risk leaving someone open. Even when they held him to four receptions in Chicago he still had the game-deciding receptions. Expect him to be targeted more in this one with Randall Cobb out, injured, and with their tight end situation not being ideal.

Packers RB AJ Dillon

He has taken over as the most effective Packers back, averaging 4.2 yards a carry and making 27 receptions for a 9.7-yard average. The problem for fantasy owners is Dillon and Aaron Jones are in a true sharing situation. So it's difficult to get one big game from either. But Dillon has gained momentum with 62 yards rushing and 3.4 receptions a game for 10 yards a catch over the last five games with two rushing TDs.

Packers RB Aaron Jones

Normally you wouldn't expect two backs from the same team to help fantasy-wise and Jones has been struggling while Dillon has taken on a greater role. However, Jones usually seems at his best against the Bears and Chicago's struggling run defense makes them an easy mark. The last time he had more than 59 yards rushing in a game was when he had 76 against the Bears on Oct. 17 in Chicago. The Packers will need his presence in the receiving game, as well.

Bears WR Darnell Mooney

Sure, it's Allen Robinson who is back but it's Mooney who should benefit as defenses no longer can focus a few players on him. They'll need to think instead about keeping Robinson in check and it will free up Mooney to get downfield more than he did against Arizona.

Bears TE Cole Kmet

With 40 receptions now for 402 yards, Kmet could be their biggest threat against the Packers. He hasn't been the red zone weapon the Bears want from their tight ends but Jimmy Graham stepped up in that regard the last two games. Kmet will catch a lot of underneath passes against softer zone when the Bears are behind in this game.

Sit 'Em

Allen Robinson

No knock on Robinson but expecting him to spring into action after a hamstring injury when he had only nine catches for 105 yards the final three games before his injury is wishful thinking. Robinson wasn't having a good game against Pittsburgh before the play when he was injured. He had more than half his 68-yard season high yardage total in that game on the 39-yard reception when he was injured. Robinson and Fields still haven't developed that rapport and confidence in the passing game, and that one big gainer was a possible sign it could come. But then he was injured.

Justin Fields

In his four games since Fields faced the Packers, he had two TD passes, five interceptions and a passer rating of 70.6. He had completed 4 of 11 for 79 yards before his injury against Baltimore. So it's not like he was red hot. Fields was showing glimpses of what's possible, but not consistency. Big plays and consistency are needed against Green Bay's defense.

David Montgomery

The Bears tend to fall behind in games against the Packers in Green Bay and abandon the running game. Montgomery is also a walking welt with three injuries suffered in last week's game.

Defense

Green Bay's defense is an easy play. They always hold the Bears offense in check, allowing more than 16 points once in the last five games.

In terms of IDP leagues, Adrian Amos is a lock choice in this one because he always makes plays against his old team and Fields is going to give him the chance by throwing it deeper more than other Bears quarterbacks do.

Preston Smith is another Packers defender capable of big plays in this one as he is facing rookie Larry Borom and has been producing bigger plays with Za'Darius Smith out injured on the other side.

For the Bears, don't even think of a player in the secondary. They have had only two interceptions of Aaron Rodgers since Ryan Pace became general manager in 2015. The only players to watch are Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith, but Smith has played through a hamstring injury and this makes him susceptible to doing it again. And Quinn will get triple-teamed with Khalil Mack on IR.

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