Bears Find Rebuilding Projects Require Time

The Bears would like to become the latest rags-to-riches story in the NFL but history suggests something about how fast teams with three wins can turn it around.

Optimism is nearly unchecked at Halas Hall.

It usually is at this time of the year.

The numbers say something less enjoyable could still occur before things really do get better.

The Bears have made all their moves, practiced, played pretend games, got injured, healed and ramped up. Now they arrive at the opener with Green Bay hoping to become the NFL's next rags-to-riches team.

To their credit, they're talking about doing more hard work and maturing as a team instead of making bold predictions. When you're trying to snap a 10-game losing streak, it's better to aim low.

"I mean you look at the landscape of your division," Bears coach Matt Eberflus said. "I mean that's certainly the first thing you look at. And then you look at your conference and then you look at it from there. You know, we like where we are in our division.

"That's why we play the games. We're going to play these games and we're going to see where we are and see where we need to grow and mature at some spots and get better at some spots. That's all a part of the season. You know, you go from your first game to your second game to your 10th game. We just have to keep getting better every single week and again, we have some young players in there that are going to be exciting to watch and exciting to grow but you certainly feel good with where you are in the division."

It's very likely the rebuild goes on again this year, considering inexperience and the experience of other teams who have gone through what the Bears are facing.

In the last decade, 23 teams finished three wins or less like the Bears did last year and only six of the 23 finished with winning records the next season. Three of those six made the playoffs:

• The 2021 Lions, who were 9-8 last season after going 3-13-1 in 2021, failed to make the playoffs.

• The 2021 Jaguars, after going 3-14 in 2021, and they made the playoffs last year to score one postseason win.

• The Jacksonville Jaguars in 2017, who made the AFC championship game at 10-6 a year after they were 3-13.

• The 2016 Tennessee Titans, who were 9-7 and missed the playoffs a year after they were 3-13.

• The 2014 Houston Texans, who were 9-7 a year without making the playoffs after going 2-14 in 2013.

• The 2013 Kansas City Chiefs, who were 11-5 and lost in the playoffs a year after going 2-14.

Usually it takes longer than a year to build to the winning season. The Lions did it largely because the franchise had been mired in losing seasons and were adding early draft picks, then had the new regime take over and add more talent to what had been colleced.

The Jaguars had an immediate turnaround for largely the same reason, and because Doug Pederson is a proven, experienced, successful coach. He was a coach the Bears could have hired but wasn't a finalist.

The Bears would really need breaks and a sudden leap in passing productivity by Justin Fields in his third season to achieve something along the lines of what Jacksonville did last year.

At least the numbers say they probably won't get worse. If after all the money spent and the draft picks, they do get worse, something will need to be examined closely with either the coaching staff or personnel. 

In cases where teams with three wins get worse over the last decade, it often meant a firing.

On the more upbeat side, of the 23 teams to finish with three wins the last decade, 21 improved the following season.

That's the good news.

The not-so-good news is the average win improvement was 3.9 wins for those 21 teams who got better. So a seven-win season would appear the more likely leap forward for the Bears.

By the second season after their three-win years, 11 of the 23 teams had achieved winning records, playoffs or not. So it's almost a 50-50 proposition that they turned it around within two years.

What this all suggests is it's more likely the Bears would attain a winning record in Matt Eberflus' third season after winning three or four more games than last year.

The model for the Bears is the Cincinnati Bengals, although they likely would not want to repeat the second season that Zac Taylor and Co. The Bengals had four wins in 2020 after they had only two wins in 2019. Making it to the Super Bowl in 2021 eventually made that second miserable season worthwhile.

Where the Bears are is rebuilding with a very solid base now, as opposed to last year when the lack of cap space and draft picks kept realistic expectations low. The rebuild had been a tear-down first. Now the building is continuing.

"We're in a much better place than we were last year," GM Ryan Poles said. "I feel we've been able to move the needle and be in a position to go after our goals and to have more aggressive goals in terms of being a championship organization."

Yet, for now aggressively going after those goals appears to be something for the future rather than 2023.

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