Why the Packers May Have Made a Mistake

Analysis: Giving a quarterback who turns 39 this year $200 million is the height of stupidity and here's why.

So Aaron Rodgers will be back in Green Bay after signing a new four-year contract averaging $50 million and will have his favorite target back, Davante Adams.

It's not necessarily a four-year disaster for the Bears and the rest of the NFC North.

The Packers structured the deal in a way to make the salary cap figure for his deal drop in Year 1 and they needed this to happen in a big way because they were $26 million over the cap as of Tuesday with free agents who need signing, a desire to put the franchise tag on Davante Adams or give him a new contract, and more restructuring coming to keep from losing too many other players.

Rodgers got $153 million guaranteed in the deal.

Here's why the Packers can't simply step into continued success over the Bears with Rodgers back.

1. Weakened Roster

The Packers will need to add receivers and find ways to replace key defensive players.

It's been widely speculated they'll have difficulty retaining cornerback Rasul Douglas, linebacker De'Vondre Campbell, pass rusher Za'Darius Smith, receivers Randall Cobb, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard, tight end Robert Tonyan, and one or two offensive linemen.

They managed to retain pass rusher Preston Smith by getting him to take an embarrassing, incentive-laced deal, which is basically a pay cut. They're going to need to refit many positions and not lose a beat. It's not easy to accomplish after a big turnover on either side of the ball.

2. Real Free Agents Are Gone

The two biggest losses among free agents for the Packers were Nathaniel Hackett and Luke Getsy. They were not only brilliant coaches by all accounts, including Rodgers', but they also provided a valuable buffer between coach Matt LaFleur and a quarterback who is be a petulant diva. 

Without that barrier, it's not going to be as easy to avoid feelings like Rodgers had for Mike McCarthy when that pairing of two strong-willed individuals deteriorated. One other loss was tight ends coach Justin Outten, who is Denver's offensive coordinator now. As Packers tight ends coach, he squeezed what he could out of a marginal group of tight ends in old Marcedes Lewis, Tonyan and Josiah Deguara.

3. The NFC North Has Changed

Rodgers was attacking basically the same Bears defensive scheme, with two years of slight alterations under Chuck Pagano, for seven years. It's going to change completely in the coming season. The same is true for the Minnesota Vikings, who are no longer a 4-3 based team for the first time since 1985. Rodgers always seemed so comfortable facing both teams over the past two years, especially. With different coaches, different receivers and a different defensive scheme to battle, he's going to find a complete change of scenery ahead. He might not like it.

4. Rodgers Not Good Enough

The Packers went out and hired a good special teams coordinator because they were blaming their loss to San Francisco on special teams. Admittedly, their special teams were putrid. 

However, special teams didn't cause them to score 10 points when they lost. Aaron Rodgers and the offense scored 10 points.

5. He's Old

Is this the year Rodgers' body stops working the same? Quarterbacks frequently hit the wall when they get to a late stage in their career.  The NFL is no country for old men and Rodgers is old. Tom Brady was the ridiculous exception. Ben Roethlisberger felt it in his late 30s. Drew Brees looked like a rubber-armed quarterback toward the end. 

Rodgers turns 39 on Dec. 2 and he's under contract for four years?

Players in their late 30s come up with injuries a lot more often than younger players, too.

That's quite the gamble on the Packers' part considering all but $47 million of the $200 million is guaranteed. 

Paying that much money out to any individual in a sport as team-based as football, when there is a salary cap, seems stupid.

It looks like the kind of gamble that can take down a franchise.

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