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The Limits to Bears Trading Down

A possibility exists the Bears could trade back again out of No. 9 if they don't see value or if someone makes an offer thay can't refuse, but how far can they afford to go back?
Gene Chamberlain|
The Limits to Bears Trading Down
The Limits to Bears Trading Down

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Chicago Bears

The Bears sit in a position at No. 9 where trading back and acquiring picks is still possible.

GM Ryan Poles made it clear he could still do this and rumors popped up this past week of talks with Pittsburgh.

Even team board chairman George McCaskey was talking about it on ESPN AM-1000.

"We're at a good spot at No. 9," McCaskey said. "And if he (Poles) sees a player he likes at No. 9, we'll go get him. Otherwise, who knows, maybe another trade."

Sun-Times reporter Jason Lieser had talked to Poles about it prior to the owners meetings and Poles told him: "We're open to that. It depends on what the deals look like but there's also multiple drop-offs as you go back throughout the draft. So we might not think that's the best way to go because a certain drop-off at a certain premium position might be coming up soon. We stay fluid."

It would be unlikely to see the Bears taking the elevator all the way down more than 10 spot because there surely would be drops in talent levels at need spots, although those levels are purely draft board-specific.

There are always outliers, too. The classic case: Kansas City moves up to No. 10 from No. 27 and also surrenders a third-rounder that year (No. 91) as well as a 2018 first-round pick to select Patrick Mahomes at 10.

Given the gift of eternal foresight, any team would make that deal in an instant. In reality, such drastic moves back rarely occur outside of the first few picks because the best quarterbacks are usually the targets for these and they're often gone by the ninth pick.

If one is falling, the Bears could be fielding such calls, however. Another first-round pick might be worth the trade down. The Bears do have needs now if they hope to avoid another season like they had last year, so they can't merely be in the mood for acquiring lesser picks. They need quality.

Here's an estimate how far back they could trade and still come away without a big talent drop at a need position, as well as more picks for Round 2, 3 or even a future first-rounder.

Offensive Tackle

No. 14 in Round 1. The drop comes after the first four tackles. At first, it was considered in most mock drafts as the first three tackles but Tennessee's Darnell Wright surged in the simulations while some have cooled a bit on Georgia's Broderick Jones. Still, Jones is solid enough not to fall too far. Anyone who watched his tenacity as a blocker has to be reminded of Jenkins, except the Georgia blocker is an actual tackle with longer arms and not a guard.

The NFL Mock Draft Database consensus mock finds that the last of those four could go off the board by No. 20, but a look at some key mocks shows it could be much sooner. On three of the four CBS mock drafts posted Friday, the four tackles are all gone by No. 14. On Kyle Trapasso's, Jones lasts until 18.

Mel Kiper Jr. has Johnson lasting until No. 19 and going to Tampa Bay.

Pro Football Focus' Sam Monson had the last of those four going at No. 23. It was Wright to the Chiefs. However, his was the only major mock draft introducing a fifth tackle as one of the top prospects and that was Oklahoma's Anton Harrison. He had Jones going to Pittsburgh at No. 17 and Harrison at 16 to the Commanders, then the drop in talent occurred and it was until No. 23 before Wright was taken.

When the rumor of Bears-Steelers talks popped up last week, the basis was Pittsburgh wanted a tackle and at 17 couldn't be guaranteed of getting its need met.

The Bears won't be able to be certain they can go back to 17 in a deal with the Steelers and still get a tackle if the Steelers are coming up because they're not satisfied they can get a tackle at No. 17.

Call 16 the cutoff point for tackles before the drop. Any trade made after that point and the Bears will be getting a secondary level of tackle.

Edge Rushers

A bit larger size group of edge rushers appears most often near the top of Round 1. That's Will Anderson Jr., Tyree Wilson, Lukas Van Ness, Myles Murphy and Nolan Smith. Murphy seems to have dipped a bit in mocks while Smith has risen. Only Wilson comes close to Anderson in most mocks.

NFL.com mock drafter Chad Reuter has Murphy going last of the group at 22, Monson for PFF has Wilson dropping to 24, three CBS mocks have Murphy the last to go at 20, 24 and 28, while another has Smith going last at 20.

The consensus of NFLmockdraftdatabase is Murphy at No. 19 to Tampa Bay as the last one off the board. Kiper has Van Ness lasting until 24 as the last of them off the board.

It seems a good number to go with here with so many right around that spot.

If the Bears go back past 20 for an edge, they could be falling off the edge in terms of talent.

Defensive Tackles

If it's Jalen Carter or bust for the Bears, they'll just have to wait to see if any of the top eight teams in the draft take him. Odds are someone will, maybe Detroit.

So they'll get to see him a lot anyway, but won't enjoy it so much.

The rest of the defensive tackle group is not clumped in mock drafts the way edges and offensive tackles are. The only other consensus first-rounder is Pitt's Calijah Kancey. Northwestern's Adetomiwa Adebawore and Clemson's Bryan Bresee make appearances in Round 1 for some mocks, not others. So consider Kancey the only other sure first-round level three technique.

The mock NFLmockdraftdatabase.com consensus says 18th to the Lions for Kancey, but they're about the only one who regard him as a mid-level first-round pick. Only two of the CBS mock drafts list him as a first-rounder and the two who do list him in Round 1 have him at 30 and 31. Kiper has him going 29th to New Orleans

The real reach among all mocks for Kancey seems to be by the Bears at No. 9 in Monson's PFF poll. It would be difficult to envision the Bears selecting Kancey this high but if they feel his ability to be on the field for all downs is possible, then perhaps they would take him. By having Justin Jones and with DeMarcus Walker also a player who can play three technique, it would seem unlikely they'd want to reach so much for a tackle.

The NFL.com mock by Reuter has Kancey going exactly where the mock draft consensus says, at No. 18 to Detroit.

So count No. 17 as far down as the Bears could trade back and still get Kancey.

Cornerbacks

This position is generally recognized as the deepest in the draft in terms of top-end talent as well as the next level. Teams might be able to go into Round 3 and get quality players, possibly even Round 4. The top end is a group of four players: Illinois' Devon Witherspoon, Oregon's Christian Gonzalez, Penn State's Joey Porter, and Maryland's Deonte Banks. South Carolina's Cam Smith and a few others appear in a few mocks in Round 1 but those are outliers. These four are in virtually every mock draft's first round.

Generally, they're dispersed around the first round, as well. There is no real run in most mocks for cornerbacks the way there could be at offensive tackle. Witherspoon and Gonzalez are the top two, then the other two show up at some point after the top 10 picks within the next dozen.

There is another group of cornerbacks after this carrying over into the middle of Round 2.

The NFLmockdraftdatabase.com choice of 22nd to Baltimore for Banks is the area where the fourth cornerback is gone off the board on most mocks, whether it's Banks or Porter.

Consider No. 21 the latest the Bears could go back and get a premier first-rounder at corner.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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