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Self-Evident Bears Draft Truths

Determining a Bears ideal draft based on everything known about their needs and the talent pool available.
Gene Chamberlain|
Self-Evident Bears Draft Truths
Self-Evident Bears Draft Truths

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Chicago Bears

It's two weeks until the biggest day of the NFL offseason and time to take account of what we know about the course this Bears draft will take.

Here is what has become self-evident about the situation facing GM Ryan Poles and how it affects or must affect the Bears' path forward in the selection process.

Given these self-evident truths, it's possible to arrive at an ideal or perfect Bears draft.

1. Taking Jalen Carter

The way to improve a pass rush fastest is with the rare and feared standout interior pass rusher. Carter is the closest defensive player to the quarterback. These players rarely come along and Carter is one who can dominate. He can affect the offense every single play. Despite his faults, and we all know them by now—the immaturity label, the fatal car racing incident andmisdemeanor charges he pled no contest to, the inability to be in good shape for a pro day—his talent can't be denied. 

The Bears know it, apparently. ESPN's Matt Miller reported the Bears will not let Carter get past No. 9.

If Carter somehow gets past Arizona, past Seattle, past the Lions and past the Falcons, the Bears must take him. This season is about giving Justin Fields the best possible chance of proving he is their quarterback for the future. Carter does this by immediately improving the pass rush, thereby making their secondary better and elevating the entire defense. Give Fields a chance to play when he doesn't need to score 34 points a game gives him more leeway. Last year they allowed 33 points a game in their 10-game losing streak. Fields would have needed to work a miracle to win under those conditions.

2. Poles Knows O-Line

Whoever Poles picks on the offensive line early in this draft is going to be a player with a high chance for success because he knows the offensive line as someone who used to do it, and also because his assistant Ian Cunningham also was. There isn't much past to go on with Poles because he had no first-rounder last year and eight of his 11 picks were in the fifth round or later. However, he found a starter at left tackle in the fifth round from a small school in Braxton Jones, the only rookie last year at his position who started every game. They can be fairly certain that if they take tackle in Round 1 or Round 2, they have an immediate starter.

3. Greatest Need: Edge Rusher

They have four players on the roster who have been NFL starters at offensive tackle in Jones, Larry Borom, Teven Jenkins and Alex Leatherwood. They weren't great but at least they can get the job done if required.

In this offseason they have altered their defensive line but the two ends they brought in were more aimed at stopping the run than improving the pass rush. It's like a team bringing in guards to play offensive tackle. 

DeMarcus Walker never had more than 4 1/2 sacks in his first five seasons and had 12 total sacks until getting seven last year. When he got seven sacks, he was at his best as a three technique tackle and not an edge. Rasheem Green had 3 1/2 sacks last year in a similar scheme to the one the Bears run. He has 17 sacks in five years. The Bears need a player capable of 17 sacks in one year, or at least 10 sacks. They had 10 1/2 total from all their defensive ends last year combined and only a league-low 20 from their entire team.

4. They Can't Forget Cornerback

If they take a cornerback in Round 1, don't be shocked. It's a premier position acccording to Poles himself. There are three extremely good ones and two who could be worthy of the draft's ninth pick, including Illinois' Devon Witherspoon and Oregon's Christian Gonzalez.

Both Jaylon Johnson and Kindle Vildor are free agents next year if they don't sign extensions. Vildor is a starter who hasn't played at the level of one. Johnson hasn't been healthy for a full season yet. And they can't really be certain about Kyler Gordon's best use after a rookie year when they alternated him between slot cornerback and outside. This all screams out for another cornerback or nickel starter and the only question is whether it's one of the top two CBs.

5. Quality Over Quantity

This draft needs to be about quality, not quantity. Last year they could trade down on Day 3 for more picks to give themselves more chances to "hit" on a player with a late pick because they had only three picks on the first two days and none after the 71st pick until the fifth round. They needed as many picks as possible also because they had no first-round pick and didn't have free agency money to build up their roster. 

Now, they've spent more in free agency and need higher-quality picks more than extra picks. Seventh-rounders rarely amount to anything. They have no sixth-rounders and those they took last year haven't proven anything yet. You get the same effect with an undrafted free agent as with a sixth- or seventh-round pick. They don't need to trade out of fourth- or fifth-round picks to get extra sixth-rounders. In fact, it would be better trading up with some of their fourth- or fifth-round picks for a higher quality of pick in Rounds 3 or 4 even if it results in fewer overall picks. More quality picks the first two days, or in the first four rounds at the very least, is what they need.  

6. No Jaxon Smith-Njigba

They can't afford this luxury when their lines on both sides of the ball are so bad and they just acquired DJ Moore and before that Chase Claypool. It's like drafting running back Bijan Robinson. Either of these players could be electrifying, especially Robinson when put in the same backfield with Fields. But someone has to block. Someone has to tackle. They haven't got enough doing either. They can always get a better receiver next year than Smith-Njigba when they take Marvin Harrison Jr.

The Ideal Draft

Taking all of these self-evident truths into account and based on best player available using Pro Football Focus' big board for talent rating, this is the ideal Bears draft if trades do not enter the picture. 

This is not a mock draft since other teams were not picking. It is only a selection of picks from PFF's ratings of all players based on when the Bears pick and all of the self-evident truths about their roster and needs:

  • 9) DT Jalen Carter, Georgia: Impacts the Bears on both sides of the ball in numerous ways.
  • 53) DE Isaiah Foskey, Notre Dame: He finishes. He made 23 sacks his last two years. Remember, edge rusher is needed more than offensive tackle but there are no tackles rated better than 61 here anyway.
  • 61) T Matthew Bergeron, Syracuse: Best tackle available ranked No. 61 or later, which explains why they better get one in Round 1 if Carter has been picked already by No. 9.
  • 64) CB Antonio Johnson, Texas A&M: A standout and rare bigger slot cornerback.
  • 103) C Juice Scruggs, Penn State: Best left at another need position.
  • 133) RB Chase Brown, Illinois: Fast, powerful with a style well suited to this offense.
  • 136) DL Byron Young, Alabama: Versatile, interior run support.
  • 148) S Brandon Joseph, Notre Dame: Northwestern transfer well known to Bears.
  • 218) DT Ricky Stromberg, Arkansas: A nose backup for Andrew Billings.
  • 258: WR Demario Douglas, Liberty: Small receiver/punt returner in the Tarik Cohen mold.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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