Who Wins Between First Two Bears Opponents?

If you're a Bears fan, Super Bowl LVI is a simple game to predict.

On one hand is a team the Bears faced in Week 1. On the other hand is the team they faced in Week 2.

The Bears were completely outclassed by the Los Angeles Rams in the opener, falling behind right away by two touchdowns and losing 34-14 at Sofi Stadium.

In Week 2, they played the Cincinnati Bengals at Soldier Field and quarterback Andy Dalton went to the bench with a 7-0 lead due to a bone bruise to a knee suffered while he was scrambling. Justin Fields saw his first extensive playing time and was a non-factor because the Bears defense rose up and took the ball away from Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow on three successive passes with interceptions in a routine 20-17 win that wasn't as close as the score indicated.

The first interception was a pick-6 by Roquan Smith with 10:55 left to play. His 53-yard touchdown return made it 17-3. Then, after a touchback and a running play for 4 yards by Joe Mixon, Jaylon Johnson made his first career interception but the Bears wasted a scoring opportunity at the Bengals 36-yard line and punted ti the end zone.

On the next play Alec Ogletree deflected a Burrow pass intended for Tyler Boyd and defensive end Angelo Blackson picked it off before stumbling 6 yards to the Bengals 9, resulting in a Cairo Santos chip shot. Two late Bengals scores made the final score look closer when it wasn't.

The rest of the 2021 season played out and the Bears fell, the Bengals rose and the Rams played about like anyone one think.

BearDigest.com had it Rams and Bills in this year's Super Bowl for during August preseason picks and could have gotten away with it, too, if not for that meddling Patrick Mahomes and his 13 seconds against the Bills. Surely the Bills could have beaten Cincinnati if they had only squib-kicked against the Chiefs.

So here's how the Super Bowl pairing of teams the Bears played in Weeks 1 and 2 plays out, and it appears to be no place for underdogs.

Bengals Running Game

Cincinnati is not a good running team, even with elusive Joe Mixon at running back. They showed it against the Bears when they ran for only 69 yards on a day when the Bears had to use Bilal Nichols at nose tackle with Eddie Goldman out due to injury. They haven't run it most of the year and their 4.0 yards per rush ranked 26th in the league. It wasn't a case where they began to run better at season's end, as they had only 83 and 65 yards rushing in their first two playoff games and averaged 80 yards rushing over their last six games overall. Rams nose tackle Sebastian Joseph-Day has returned from a pectoral injury and linebacker Troy Reeder is a key Rams run stopper but Aaron Donald does his fair share of disrupting runs as well for the league's sixth-best run defense. Edge to the Rams.

Bengals Passing Game

Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are hooking up far more frequently in the passing game and it has triggered the Bengals' surge, combined with their improved defense. In the last four regular-season games and three playoff games, Burrow hasa 140.34 passer rating with 15 TDs, two INTs and a ridiculous 12.2 yards per attempt. But they played the 25th, 27th and 22nd ranked pass defenses in the NFL during the playoffs. Jalen Ramsey and the Rams pass defense haven't been as effective all over the field as in the past but are nails in the red zone and it's why they've given up the second fewest TD passes and made the third-most interceptions. The Rams had 50 sacks, with more balance this year than in some other years. Donald had 12 1/2 and Leonard Floyd 9 1/2. Von Miller also has 9 1/2, five with the Rams. They might offset that big passing edge considering they're facing an offensive line struggling to protect Burrow. No Edge.

Rams Running Game

Like the Bengals, the Rams haven't been much to behold on the ground. Sony Michel and Darrell Henderson have been inconsistent and L.A. has averaged only 96 yards rushing over the last 14 games, with just 93 a game in the playoffs. Led by linebackers Logan Wilson and Markus Bailey, and defensive tackles D.J. Reeder and B.J. Hill, the Bengals run defense has been strong all year, ranking fifth against the run and 13th in yards per rush (4.3). Edge to Bengals.

Rams Passing Game

Matthew Stafford's passing has been knocked by critics but he delivered in the playoffs when it counted and besides that a 102.9 passer rating and 8.1 yards an attempt are winning numbers in any book. He had 41 TDs even if he did throw 17 interceptions. The Rams defense affords Stafford the opportunity to gamble downfield a bit. Throwing for Cooper Kupp and made it all possible and the Rams are second in net yards per attempt and fifth in overall passing. The Bengals have not had a strong pass defense all year, finishing 26th stopping the pass. While they struggled in regular season they Bengals have done like Tampa Bay last year and delivered in postseason with six interceptions by six different players. Edge to the Rams.

Special Teams

Two run-of-the-mill special teams groups but two big marks against the Rams for terrible punt and kick return coverage, ranking 30th at both. The Bengals haven't been able to make returns, though. Matt Gay has been more consistent with an outstanding 94% on field goals, far better than Evan McPherson's 84% for the Bengals, but McPherson has been outstanding on longer kicks, making 9 of 10 while Gay has made just 4 of 5. If there is a hot special teams aspect it's Rams punt returner Brandon Powell, who only had six returns in the season and averaged a whopping 22.2 yards because of a TD return, but has taken it into the playoffs and averaged 15.8 yards per five returns. No Edge.

Coaching

Sean McVay definitely has the bigger ego, but that doesn't count for many points. Since Zac Taylor came from McVay's staff, there are no secrets in terms of scouting. McVay has been gambling far too much for comfort in postseason and put the Rams at risk. This isn't a common regular-season matchup and both staffs have had to excel to get here so coaching shouldn't be a determining edge when teams get this far along. It has mattered in some Super Bowls, but not this one. No Edge.

Intangibles

The Rams have the real home-field edge for a Super Bowl that only Tampa Bay enjoyed in the past. The Bengals have the whole underdog thing going and people love this. Often it can make a difference. However, they're playing against a team that seems to believe its time has come in a Super Bowl, with the entire organization committed to winning by trading away draft picks to acquire needed talent at specific spots. Edge to Rams.

Prediction

The Line: Rams by 4. Over/Under 48 1/2.

BearDigest 2021 Record in Bears Games: 15-2 straight up, 12-5 ATS.

BearDigest Pick: Rams 26, Bengals 17.

The pass rush inside and outside from the Rams will make it difficult early and will help establish a lead. They'll successfully protect it despite a few foul-ups by Stafford along the way to give Sean McVay his first Lombardi Trophy.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven