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Why Nick Foles Beats Mitchell Trubisky Without Preseason

It doesn't take preseason games to see how Nick Foles is superior as a passer to Mitchell Trubisky in every way because it will be apparent in practice every day
Gene Chamberlain|
Why Nick Foles Beats Mitchell Trubisky Without Preseason
Why Nick Foles Beats Mitchell Trubisky Without Preseason

The NFL and COVID-19 have handed Mitchell Trubisky an advantage.

He's been working with teammates on throwing all offseason to make sure he can keep this edge.

None of this should matter.

Quarterbacks were scheduled to report Thursday, July 23 to team facilities and the actual Trubisky-Foles battle begins Tuesday, July 28 when the full squad arrives. Shortly thereafter the difference between Trubisky and Foles will become apparent and coaches should know Foles will start the opener at Detroit on Sept. 13.

Sure, there will be no real live fire to face for the quarterbacks. Coaches can't get a real good look at who faces up to defensive pressure best.

If they don't know this by now, they weren't watching the Super Bowl after the 2017 season.

Trubisky knows the offense better and will be operating it with the first string at the outset.

Foles didn't get the advantage of offseason work.

Despite all of these problems, Foles will still emerge from the quarterback battle as the opening day starter and anyone who follows football knows the reasons.

1. Passing accuracy

Over the course of about five weeks worth of practices before opening week, coaches will see Foles passing more and more accurately as camp progresses and he becomes  familiar with the plays and receivers. 

Foles has always been very exact in placing the ball where receivers can handle it in stride and head upfield without stopping or turning their bodies. Philadelphia's Travis Kelce, in particular, benefited from these spot-on throws.

Trubisky has problems doing this but it's not something that shows up in his respectable career completion percentage of .634. 

Receivers are always reaching back or ahead, or stopping completely to get throws. It's one of the reasons the Bears were 28th in yards after the catch last season and Trubisky ranked 27th among quarterbacks at it in 2018 when they won the division.

Foles will better use his running backs as receivers because he hits them in the hands and in stride. This will show up from Day 1. Matt Nagy loves using the backs as receivers, especially if they are catching it where they're then allowed to be running backs.

2. Decisions and Timing

The ball comes out in time from Foles. He makes better decisions and quicker reads. He knows what defense he's facing and immediately where the best place to put the ball is. And as already described, the ball gets there on the mark with time for the receiver to run.

The Bears have been mired near the bottom of the NFL in yards after the catch for two years not because Matt Nagy's offensive system is flawed but because the quarterback hasn't read the defense quickly enough and put the ball on target in time where it needs to be.

Nagy set reading defenses as the goal for Trubisky this year. He has to "master" how to read defenses was how Nagy put it.

If Trubisky does as poorly at this as he did last year when he faced the challenge of running the 200-level Nagy offense, this will be no contest at all.

Foles has been doing all of this well for years and no one needs to question his ability. He has a Super Bowl MVP trophy to prove it.

3. The Deep Ball

Trubisky's problems with accuracy on deep throws has long been noted. Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus had Trubisky ranked 27th in the league among deep passers after last season, completing 34.4% of his passes 20 yards or more downfield. Considering the same website just called Allen Robinson the fifth-best receiver at hauling in passes 20 yards or more downfield, it only underscores what a miracle worker the Bears have for a wide receiver.

Trubisky is not only bad at completing the deep ball, he doesn't throw it far enough downfield often enough to ever be good at it.

Last year NFL Next Gen Stats had Trubisky tied with Kyler Murray at 28th in average yards thrown downfield. It was 5.1 yards.  

If you're not completing passes downfield, not throwing them there and not getting yards after the catch, you might want to consider being a halfback.

Foles' deep passing last year has drawn criticism, as well. 

Any criticism of this type for Foles in Jacksonville is unjustified considering he left after 11 plays, didn't return until Week 10, was with a new team and had no timing with his receivers. To top it off, he's throwing downfield after he just returned from a broken collarbone. It's gutsy enough just to stand in the pocket and throw anywhere on the field after the injury, let alone face a rush and heave it downfield while taking a hit.

4. Passing Mechanics Under Fire

Trubisky's passing mechanics always seem to break down the longer he goes into a game, the longer he goes into a season. He doesn't stand up to fire well in this regard. Coaches are always concerned with Trubisky's footwork.

It's true there's no substitute for game conditions with pass rushers who are going to hit a quarterback to determine how they stand up under pressure. So coaches won't get to see the two passers standing up to heat with no preseason.

That's why they have film. The film doesn't lie. It will be obvious to anyone who looks at it how Foles stands in and fires while Trubisky contorts his body and arm in manners unlikely to ever produce an effective spiral.

5. Foles' Experience

All of these disadvantages Foles faces by being a challenger coming into a new offense with little time to work are nothing for him. 

He's spent his entire career overcoming this type of situation. It's his fifth change of teams. At least with this one he has worked in similar offenses.

6. Coaches

Trubisky might have an edge because he's worked for Matt Nagy and with passing game coordinator Dave Ragone. Calling this a benefit is a real stretch of the imagination.

Nagy knows through two years where Trubisky is weak and he's not likely to want a repeat of any of the problems the team had last season.

Foles has worked with Nagy, and also worked with quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo and with offensive coordinator Bill Lazor. They know what he's capable of, especially DeFilippo, who has a Super Bowl ring as a reminder.

7. The Future

Foles is under contract for three years. Trubisky has no contract after this season. Giving him one would not only disrupt the salary cap structure for the future under normal circumstances but with COVID-19 likely to take the cap down it would be even more of a devastating blow. 

Why start him and give him the chance to destroy the team's future?

8. The False Logic

There is this popular scenario floating around suggesting the Bears give the starting job to Trubisky and when he fails Foles is ideal as the quarterback who comes on in relief to guide the team since he did this in Philadelphia.

The problem with this is they have to fail first before Foles comes in to save the day. What if it's too late to save the day?

They're better off starting the best quarterback and it should be obvious from Day 1 it's Foles.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

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