Bengal Bets: Top Wagers in Bengals V. Ravens Sunday Night Football Clash

Joe Burrow and Cincinnati had plenty of success against Baltimore last season.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Updated:
Oct 9, 2022 6:13 PM EDT
Original:
Oct 7, 2022

CINCINNATI — The Cincinnati Bengals wound up on the right side of a Sunday where they got to sit back and watch every team in the AFC North lose.

To top it off Bengal Bets readers moved to 8-4 on the season with a clean 3-0 sweep in Cincinnati's 27-15 win over Miami. Joe Burrow (O272.5 passing yards, O1.5 passing TDs) came through with a big night, and the Bengals cashed the Moneyline (-188).

Let's dive into some worthy options as Zac Taylor’s team looks to get over .500 and hang onto at least a share of the division lead.

Here are the Week 5 Bengal Bets:

Season Record: 8-4 (2.20 Units +18.4% ROI)

Under 48.5 (-110 SI Sportsbook)

Dec 26, 2021; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals cornerback Mike Hilton (21) reacts after a play against the Baltimore Ravens in the first half at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports — Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

Don't look now, but the Bengals have a bonafide top-10 defense that can enter the top-five conversation with an encore performance against Lamar Jackson on Sunday Night. Lou Anarumo stifled the former MVP last season to a 48.5% completion rate and one passing touchdown in a 41-17 win.

The Bengals crushed at the line of scrimmage, notching five sacks, and Jackson had to scramble 12 times. I see this game going much the same way as the Bengals' defense has only improved.

They are communicating at a high level four games in. Multiple years in one system for most of the players will breed that. They rank 7th in total defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders while sitting 6th in total defensive EPA, sporting a top-10 ranking in run and pass defense. Oh, and they are stopping teams from gaining a new set of downs at the highest rate in the league.

The Ravens' defense (25th EPA/dropback allowed) makes me leery, but I am still not entirely confident the Bengal's putrid run game (31st rush EPA/play, 32nd rush success rate) can get going enough to cross the 30-point mark. Baltimore is also leading the league in forced turnovers (10) this year, while the Bengals sit seventh (seven).

Joe Burrow O273.5 Passing Yards (-125 SI Sportsbook)

Joe Burrow Smile Ravens — © Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

Right back to the well on Burrow's passing yards. A 131.1 passer rating with 941 yards, seven touchdowns, and one interception.

That's what Joe Burrow did to Don “Wink”Martindale's defense in 2021, and the change to Mike Macdonald should cap a ceiling much lower than that. This is still Baltimore football though, and I can see Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins continuing their success against this defense.

Burrow has hit this over at a 58.3% rate since the start of last season and has gone 3-for-4 to his passing yards over in this campaign. The Ravens aren't the easiest matchup for QBs so far this season because of the turnover equation, but the yardage allowed is eye-popping.

No team has allowed more yards passing (1,261, 327.5 per game), and they are 31st in fantasy points allowed to QBs. Yes, Cover 2 shells are still all the rage around the Bengals despite less usage the last two weeks, but Baltimore still loves to blitz (27.6% blitz rate, 11th) and the Bengals patience can still pay off against those two-safety looks (Burrow 7-of-7, 83 yards against Cover 2 last week).

Baltimore has missed the second-most tackles in the league this season (30), and we all saw how Chase took advantage of those mistakes in the open field last year.

Get the ball to the outside weapons by any means necessary through the air, and the yards should follow.

Justin Tucker (O1.5 Field Goals, -125 SI Sportsbook)

Baltimore Ravens kicker Justin Tucker (9) follows through on a field goal in the first quarter during a Week 16 NFL game against the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Dec. 26, 2021, at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati. Baltimore Ravens At Cincinnati Bengals Dec 26 — © Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

The greatest kicker of all time didn't get a chance to take a lead on the Buffalo Bills late in the Ravens' 23-20 loss last week, but he should get multiple tries on Sunday night.

Cincinnati's defense is very good, but Baltimore's offense can move the ball on anyone the way Jackson is playing (4th among QBs in EPA/play). The Bengals are also very susceptible to kicking points through four games.

Opposing kickers have made multiple FGs in every game so far, including three games with three-plus made FGs. Cincinnati is bending, not breaking which has helped them allow just four touchdowns as a defense and one rushing score, along with a 5.1 yards per play mark (11th).

Overall, the Bengals are 30th in kicker fantasy scoring this season, one of three teams giving up at least three made field goals per game. The Ravens should move the ball into Bengals territory but settle for points in a close game at home.

Tucker is 15-for-25 to the over on FG totals in his last 25 home games—ride with the GOAT.

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