Bills 5 Burning Questions: All In on Josh Allen, Joe Brady This Offseason?
For the fourth straight season, the Buffalo Bills' season came to a heartbreaking end. And for the third time in those four years, it was the Kansas City Chiefs putting the final nail in the coffin for the Bills, this time with a 27-24 win on Sunday in the AFC Divisional Round at Highmark Stadium.
After another disappointing playoff exit, the future looks as murky as it has been since Buffalo began its run as a perennial playoff team four years ago. With aging veterans nearing the end, 22 impending free agents and being well over the cap, the Bills will look a lot different next season compared to the one that played on Sunday.
How will Buffalo go about putting together a roster that can finally get over the hump? Here are five questions that will shape the Bills' offseason.
Josh Allen
© Mark Konezny, USA TODAY
All In On Josh Allen?
Do the Bills invest in the best player on their team? Or do they focus on improving a defense that has consistently fallen short in the playoffs?
That may shape what the team looks like next season.
Often, Josh Allen has had to put on his cape just for Buffalo to have a chance against the NFL's elite. He put together another stellar performance against the Chiefs with 258 of the Bills' 368 total yards and all three touchdowns, but it wasn't enough.
Across 10 playoff starts, Allen has thrown for 2,723 yards, 21 touchdowns and four interceptions, and he has run for 563 yards and reached the end zone four times on the ground. Across the last four seasons, Buffalo's defense has allowed an average of 33.5 points per game in the games it has been eliminated.
Getting Allen more help won't be easy, but general manager Brandon Beane would be remiss not to be aggressive in adding to the offense. If a top receiver falls in the draft, Buffalo should be all-in on trading up for them. Or if a free agent like receiver Tee Higgins is willing to take a team-friendly deal to play for a contender, the Bills should find a way to make it work.
Allen is the best thing going for Buffalo, and he gives his team a chance to win as long he's on the field. Whether it's drafting a receiver in the first two rounds of the 2024 NFL Draft or signing a big-time free agent, Beane needs to do whatever it takes to get him more help this offseason.
Will Joe Brady Remain The Offensive Coordinator?
Firing Ken Dorsey and making Joe Brady the interim offensive coordinator after Week 10 likely saved the season for the Bills. Does that mean Brady will remain in the team's long-term plans?
Allen gave a ringing endorsement of Brady at his post-season press conference on Monday, and head coach Sean McDermott noted that the quarterback's input would be instrumental in the team's search for an offensive coordinator. Those signs seemingly point to Brady being the favorite to become the full-time offensive coordinator.
Across the nine games Brady was the offensive playcaller, including the playoffs, Buffalo averaged 27.11 points per game. Brady also helped get the running game going, as it ran for at least 105 yards with Brady in tow. The Bills ran for under 100 yards four times with Dorsey as the offensive coordinator.
Brady was put into a tough spot and was tasked with helping save the season as the Bills were on the outside looking in. The team responded by winning seven of its nine games with Brady as the playcaller. Given his success despite being thrown into the fire, one could say Brady has earned the right to have a whole offseason to implement his scheme.
But if Buffalo chooses to go elsewhere, it would be wise to make sure Allen is on board with the decision and that the coach they hire is capable of getting the most out of him and schematically giving him the advantages they may have lacked with Dorsey and Brady.
Build Through The Draft Or Acquire Proven Players?
The Bills have reached a crux in the road on their quest to finally capitalize on their Super Bowl window.
Do the Bills continue to focus on drafting and developing players? Or do they use those picks to acquire more proven commodities?
With Buffalo picking in the back end of every round due to its success, finding immediate-impact players is a steep challenge. While 2023 first-round pick tight end Dalton Kincaid showed flashes, other former first-round picks like cornerback Kaiir Elam and defensive end Gregory Rousseau still haven't lived up to the billing.
In 2020, Buffalo traded its first-round pick for receiver Stefon Diggs and he turned out to be the weapon Allen desperately needed for his career to take off.
While the f*** them picks approach that Los Angeles Rams general manager Les Snead so famously coined after they won the Super Bowl in 2021 should be on the table for Beane, having just over -43 million in cap space and having 22 pending free agents will make that difficult. Regardless, this offseason may be Beane's most difficult with acquiring top-end talent while simultaneously getting under the cap.
Defensive Revamp?
Among the 22 free agents that were previously mentioned, many played a key role on a Bills defense that allowed the fourth fewest points per game in the regular season. Safety Micah Hyde, defensive end DaQuan Jones, defensive end Leonard Floyd, cornerback Dane Jackson, defensive tackle Jordan Phillips and defensive end A.J. Epenesa are among the players set to hit free agency.
Phillips and Hyde appear to be pondering retirement after battling injuries for much of the season, while Jones missed much of the season with a torn pectoral muscle. Jackson stepped up in the secondary while injuries mounted, and Floyd led Buffalo in sacks (10.5), and Epenesa was tied for third on the team (6.5).
Keeping those players or replacing that production won't be easy. Whether it's going bargain shopping in free agency or going heavy on defense in the draft, one of the best units from last season is going to look much different, and McDermott will have to put together one of his better coaching performances to get them back to performing how they have in years past.
How Does Buffalo Get Under The Cap?
Being in a tough spot with cap space isn't new for contending teams. It's often a bill that comes due when you go all-in with hopes of winning a Super Bowl. The Bills' path to getting under the cap is viable, but it may rely on kicking the can down the road and setting up more problems in the future.
Restructuring contracts and cutting players is inevitable for Beane. While it could lead to more issues if Diggs decides he wants out or Von Miller continues to struggle, Buffalo will likely have no choice but to restructure their contracts. Allen's contract will likely have to be restructured as well.
There is a path for the Bills to end up with about $31 million in cap space through restructuring multiple contracts and cutting players. Here is how Buffalo can reach that number, according to Overthecap.
- Allen restructure saves $23.1 million
- Diggs restructure saves $13.15 million
- Von restructure saves $12.026 million
- Dawson Knox restructure saves $6.023 million
- Rasul Douglas restructure saves $6.25 million
- Cutting Tre'Davious White saves $10.21 million
- Cutting Siran Neal saves $2.89 million
- Cutting Damar Hamlin saves $1.05 million
With Buffalo's current cap situation, this is likely to become a yearly thing, but that's often the price a team pays when it's trying to win a Super Bowl. Now, it's a matter of Buffalo making the most of the breathing room it can get so it can finally break through.
