Buffalo Bills Rookie Dalton Kincaid: Coach Ranks Tight End; ‘Deflated Grades’?

Whether the plan is for an instant impact of long-term sustainability, the first round is for difference makers. When the Buffalo Bills made tight end Dalton Kincaid the 25th pick in April’s draft, they envisioned him being a strong secondary option to make quarterback Josh Allen’s life easier over the middle of the field.

Naturally, Buffalo’s Super Bowl aspirations have accelerated the expectations for Kincaid. He needs to not only see the field but look like the polished product he was coming out of Utah.

The Bills are desperate for a complement to star receiver Stefon Diggs. Finding consistent wins in the middle of the field, particularly around and past the sticks, is important for keeping this offense on schedule, as it operated with receiver Cole Beasley in the fold.

Thus far, Kincaid ranks third on the team in targets (19), third in receptions (17), fourth in yards (118), and seventh in yards per target (6.2). It hasn’t been an abject failure, but it’s reasonable to expect more than a check-down specialist from such a tall investment.

Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey spoke on Monday about Kincaid’s development and role in the offense.

“I think Dalton’s really grown into a player that we can definitely move around, do some different things with,” Dorsey said. “Very good route runner, good feel for the game.”

That “feel” is a common trait quality tight ends have, finding soft spots in zones and mastering the connection with their quarterback. Kincaid’s development depends on the rapport he can build with Allen. Part of that, Dorsey claims, is just a matter of reps.

“Whether it’s a specific route or somebody else doing a specific route and him learning from that, that library will just continue to grow for him based off the looks that he’s seeing,” Dorsey said. “There’s gonna be times where a route might not be perfect, but he’s got that feel to make it work. As he builds that library of reps, it’ll just get better and better for him.”

Obviously, five games is far too soon to decipher really anything about a rookie’s career, but Bills fans are anxiously awaiting Kincaid’s game to become more impactful, specifically downfield.

His average depth of target is 4.2 yards downfield, which ranks 40th of 45 tight ends with at least seven targets. This is a usage stat more than a description of talent, but it’s no surprise the game’s best tight ends are all above the six-yard mark.

“There’s room to grow that route tree and get him more vertical on some things,” Dorsey said. “We’ve tried a couple times, it hasn’t worked out based on the defense or some factors, but it’s definitely something that we can continue to grow and improve on.”

Improving upon the vertical aspects of Kincaid’s game is vital, especially for how often they would prefer to employ their “11 ½” personnel with him and fellow tight end Dawson Knox. Achieving success downfield means more targets in more lucrative areas of the field and, thus, more valuable production.

Kincaid ranks ahead of just Knox and depth tight end Quintin Morris when it comes to Pro Football Focus grade on this offense, but given how the position has been deployed, it’s no surprise the tight ends are seeing deflated grades.

If Buffalo’s run game is going to continue to struggle, they’ll need to supplant it with the quick game. It’s on both Dorsey and Kincaid to make the tight end position one the Bills can rely on moving forward.