Buffalo Bills Screwed? Did NFL Rig Schedule to Help Aaron Rodgers' Jets?
The full NFL regular-season schedule is out, and now with some time to consume it all comes a bit of a deeper dive - and one in particular that suggests that the league set things up for the New York Jets to have a more cushy 2023 experience than the three-straight-time defending AFC East champs from Buffalo.
Is the NFL "rigged''? That would be putting it too strongly. But what Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis and FOX Sports has done here in regard to which teams have the most favorable setups by analyzing "net rest days''?
The NFL has helped Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. That is beyond question. And one doesn't have to be a conspiracy theorist to wonder if maybe the "why'' is pretty obvious, too.
First, writes Sharp as the set-up: "It's not just WHO you play; the NFL doesn't control that. It's WHEN you play them the NFL has 100% control of that they set their schedule unfortunately, I found the 2023 schedule is less fair and equitable at a historic level in many areas. A deep dive into the worst issues ...
And those issues as they relate to the Jets? Sharp notes, "Long has the NFL hoped a marquee quarterback would grace a marketplace like New York, and they got their wish when the Jets acquired Aaron Rodgers this offseason. Suddenly, the Jets are given the best 'net rest edge' in the NFL.''
What is "net rest edge,'' which is Sharp's central study point here? It's about when you get your bye, how much you travel, how much rest you get before certain foes, how much rest they get before they play you ... "Net rest,'' he writes, "is the extra number of rest days a team has over their opponent per game, summed over the course of the season.''
To Sharp and some Jets bullet points:
- "The Jets have a total of plus-12 days of net rest edge and play five games with more rest than their opponent.''
- "They get a bye week ahead of playing the Giants in Week 8. Luckily for the Jets, that game counts as a road game despite them playing at their home stadium. So from October 5 through November 12, the Jets don’t leave New York.''
- "They also have an advantage in key divisional games which could ultimately make a difference in who wins the AFC East. The Jets don’t have a single rest disadvantage in any games they play against their division.''
- "But in Week 11, the Jets get to play the Bills after Buffalo plays on Monday Night Football, thus putting the Bills on a day less rest. In Week 15, the Jets take on the Dolphins. And similarly, the Dolphins play on Monday Night Football the week prior and have less rest before they face the Jets. Finally, in Week 18 the Jets take on the Patriots. The Jets play on Thursday Night Football the week prior (Week 17) which gives them three more days to rest and prepare to face New England.''
Sharp's work is impressively detailed and we urge you to read his complete report. You can view all of Sharp's work in terms of calculating net rest here, as well as his full schedule analysis here.
He adds another pivot point in the AFC East, writing about what happens in Week 12 in Jets against the Dolphins. That's the first-ever "Black Friday'' game; the day after Thanksgiving. The league wanted Rodgers and the Jets on TV that day; no particular problem there.
But ... The game is in New York. As a result, the Dolphins must travel on a short week and play on the road, which presents a double-advantage to the Jets.
Sharp writes that the Jets play four divisional games late in the season and that "all four of those games give them a key rest advantage over their opponent.'' He writes that no other team in the NFL, after Week 11, gets four games with a "rest edge.''
And one more thing: "The Jets,'' Sharp writes, "don’t have a single rest disadvantage in any games they play against their division."
The Jets have a "net rest'' total of +12 ... which ties them for the No. 1 most advantageous spot in the NFL. The Bills are ranked 17th - with a "net rest'' total of 0.
Listen, we're not tinfoil-hat people; the good teams will end up winning the most games. (We think.) We're also not whiners; the Bills Week 1 meeting is at the Jets and that's another New York edge but ... the Bills are still better than the Jets (we think) and will get two chances to prove it. But we will say this: If the NFL "wants the Jets to be good''?
The Jets have just been gifted a golden opportunity.
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