Mel Kiper, Jr. & Todd McShay Forecast Tight End or Linebacker for Broncos Early Draft Day
Which direction will George Paton and the Denver Broncos go when they're finally on the clock Day 2 of the NFL draft? Could the Broncos look to upgrade the center position after two substandard years from Lloyd Cushenberry III at the position?
Perhaps a defensive lineman to help replace the recently traded Shelby Harris? Of course, edge rusher and defensive back are the two positions Paton said teams cannot have enough talent?
The bevy of options the Broncos might select on draft day can be maddening, but it certainly feels good to not be thinking about the quarterback position for the first time in a long time. Two of the most popular decisions for the Broncos to go with their early selections are at tight end and linebacker.
While both positions might be down the positional value chart in comparison to other spots on the roster, Day 2 of the draft is also the earliest time in the draft smart football teams should be targeting these positions. Fans who want to chase that romanticized game-changing linebacker or are clamoring for Denver to replace former first-round pick Noah Fant (now in Seattle) with local kid Trey McBride, rejoice.
In a recent ESPN First Draft show, Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay said that those two avenues were those that they felt made the most sense for Paton and the Broncos later this week. Kiper made a lot of Broncos Country excited the way he gushed about Colorado State’s own McBride:
“…I think tight end is the position. I think if Trey McBride out of Colorado State, who I really believe is the most underrated offensive player in this draft, nobody is talking enough about this kid. All he does is make plays on the field with the pads on. He’s survived at Colorado State each year putting up numbers.
“This kid has run after catch ability, plays the game with an attitude and approach I want to see. The hands and the concentration are incredible. He’ll block. He can do anything you want. He can move out… A guy who all year all throughout his career who showed up big each and every Saturday. I don’t know if he’s there with the last pick in the second round but if he is you have to look at Trey McBride out of Colorado State (or Greg Dulchich out of UCLA…).
Look at the numbers, look at the consistency overall. A guy that brings that attitude and approach that I really love in a true warrior on the football field.”
McBride falling to pick 64 overall for the Broncos to select him is a 50:50 coin flip right now. If he does fall to Denver, no doubt, Paton and the Broncos’ front office will have a long and hard decision in front of them.
McBride is likely the TE1 in the 2022 draft class. While not possessing any singularly dominant trait as a prospect, he is a true “do it all” type who can function in space detached from the line of scrimmage, move into the backfield as an H-back, or play more true in-line like a prototypical Y tight end.
Given his ability to dabble in all areas of playing the tight end position, McBride offers a skill-set vastly different than the Broncos’ currently hyper-specialized tight end room with the receiver in Albert Okwuegbunam, the blocker in Eric Tomlinson, and the H-back in Andrew Beck.
McBride's role versatility from the tight end position would allow the Broncos’ offense to be more adaptable and disguise their intentions before the snap better than they will as the roster currently sits. But is the 64th overall selection on a tight end the best allocation of resources in Denver considering the team’s current personnel and coaching scheme?
Russell Wilson has had one very good tight end in his career in Jimmy Graham. Graham’s overall production and usage dropped moving from New Orleans to Seattle.
From 2011-2014 in New Orleans, Graham averaged 8.9 targets and 69.7 yards per game. After being traded to Seattle, his per-game averages dropped to 6.2 targets and 47.6 yards. Why might this be?
Historically, Wilson does not utilize the short-middle of the field at a high volume. Perhaps due to his aggressive nature looking to attack defenses vertically, or perhaps somewhat due to his height and inconsistent ability to see over and through the trenches, the quarterback does not use the short-middle of the field, and we have the data to indicate as such (a trend that has been becoming more pronounced as he has aged).
Thus, even though the tight end might look like a weakness needing to be upgraded on paper, perhaps the Broncos would be better served to wait until later to add needed depth to the position and use their earlier, higher valued selections on more impactful positions. McShay would go on to list other tight end options to be considered Round 3 and 4 such as Greg Dulchich from UCLA, Isaiah Likely from Coastal Carolina, and Jeremy Ruckert from Ohio State.
However, there are more options for Paton to choose from if he chooses to wait. Cade Otton from Washington was injured this past season but was considered a legitimate challenger for TE1 before this season. Daniel Bellinger from San Diego State played in an offense that didn’t utilize his full ability given the dynamic athletic profile he displayed at the Combine, but he is one of the best blocking tight ends in this class.
Finally, the biggest and best tester at the position in Jelani Woods, who caught eight touchdowns in 11 games, should be considered as well.
If not tight end, though, McShay believed that the Broncos’ linebacker position was the unit that could use an upgrade in talent given the options that could be available Day 2 this year:
“I think off-ball linebacker like Leo Chenal from Wisconsin, Christian Harris out of Alabama, Chad Muma from Wyoming, we’ve mentioned Troy Andersen out of Montana State. There’s a bunch of those guys. So tight end and off-ball linebacker very deep in the second and third round range. Those are two spots I look for the Broncos to be targeting on Day 2 of the NFL Draft.”
Much like the tight end position the discussion about the best allocation of valuable resources must be considered when it comes to linebacker. Ejiro Evero came over from the Los Angeles Rams to be Denver's defensive coordinator, a team that has played as few linebackers on the field as any in the league over the last few seasons and traded its leading tackler at the position last season and didn’t miss a beat on the way to the Super Bowl.
The Broncos have options at linebacker but none stand out as true difference-makers that many fans crave. If Paton identifies any of the previously listed linebackers are the best players on the board when the Broncos are on the clock, Denver shouldn’t shy away from adding another young upside player at the position, but linebacker should not win tie-breakers to a majority of other positions where the Broncos need depth and potential long-term starting options due to cap ramifications such as edge rusher, cornerback, and offensive tackle.
No one knows where Paton will go with the Broncos’ first draft selections next week when the draft is officially live. Everyone has an opinion on the best players, prospects, and ideas for Denver (as well as which draft picks would be the worst), but the reality of how the draft will play out will be answered now in less than a week.
Can Paton replicate his 2021 NFL draft Masterclass? All will be known in due time.
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