Broncos in a Contract Year: Projecting What Contract OLB Bradley Chubb Could Command
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Bradley Chubb, the Denver Broncos' 2018 first-round pick, has shown he can be one of the better pass rushers in the NFL. However, he's coming off a disappointing season in which he missed 10 games, then totaled just 10 pressures in seven games with zero sacks.
Still, we've seen Chubb produce at a high level before, with two Pro Bowl-worthy seasons, one in which he was a first-ballot selection and another in which several other pass rushers proved worthy of selection, too.
Chubb is now entering the fifth-year option of his first-round pick contract, which will earn him $12.7 million this season, and is out to prove he's worth extending. Should he demonstrate that, what would such a contract look like?
Let's look at Chubb's stats from the past four seasons, then examine what other edge rushers have received and see what it means for the Broncos' rush linebacker.
The Numbers
Though Chubb has missed the bulk of two seasons with injuries, he's put up quality numbers when he's been healthy for most games.
Chubb generated 36 pressures, 21 quarterback hits, 15 hurries, and 12 sacks as a rookie. He might have made the Pro Bowl had it not been for teammate Von Miller, Jadeveon Clowney, and Terrell Suggs all putting up comparable numbers.
In his third season, the year he got his first Pro Bowl selection, Chubb notched 34 pressures, 19 QB hits, 15 hurries, and 7.5 sacks in 14 games. In his second season, which was cut short after four games because of a torn ACL, he totaled 10 pressures, six QB hits, five hurries, and one sack. He was off to a good start before the ACL injury ended his season
Chubb's fourth season is the one that raises concern. After a bone spur in his foot bothered him, he underwent surgery and missed 10 games. He never got back on track when he returned and had 10 pressures, failing to register a sack.
Obviously, Chubb must play better in 2022 to have any chance at an extension. But should he play at a high level, things could get interesting.
The Floor
One might think a contract similar to Randy Gregory would represent the low end for Chubb, but Gregory has missed more games than Chubb. While Gregory's deal isn't without risk, he's getting just $28M fully guaranteed, while other edge rushers have received more.
Consider Bud Dupree, a 2015 first-round pick. Dupree started just five games as a rookie, then missed nine games in his second season (2016) because of injuries.
Dupree had six sacks in his third season, giving him 14.5 for his first three seasons — fewer than the 20.5 sacks Chubb had in his first three seasons. Still, the Steelers exercised Dupree's fifth-year option, and in 2018, Dupree totaled 25 pressures and 5.5 sacks.
The following year, Dupree had 11.5 sacks and 28 pressures. The Pittsburgh Steelers placed the franchise tag on him, which Dupree played under in 2020.
Dupree then had eight sacks and 28 pressures that year, which ended after 11 games because of a torn ACL. However, the Tennessee Titans gave Dupree $33.75M in fully guaranteed money on a five-year, $82.5M contract.
It's hard to see Chubb taking less money than Dupree on a new contract. If Chubb has a quality season, particularly if he approaches 35 pressures and double-digit sacks, it will be hard for the Broncos to get him to take less money than Dupree.
The Ceiling
Could Chubb go a lot higher? It's possible, but I wouldn't expect him to re-set the market.
Players like T.J. Watt, Joey Bosa, and Myles Garrett are considered to be elite edge rushers, and it's not likely Chubb is going to join that group of players making at least $25M APY.
However, if Chubb turns in a monster season, he could push for contract terms similar to Maxx Crosby. The Raiders edge rusher recently signed a four-year, $94M contract with $26.1M fully guaranteed and $53M in total guarantees.
Crosby had 31 pressures as a rookie in 2019, 32 in 2020, and 42 in 2021. His numbers aren't up there with Watt, Garrett, and Bosa (Watt has had at least 50 pressures each season, while the other two have exceeded that number at least once), but I would put him in the next tier behind the elite players.
Chubb hasn't surpassed 40 pressures yet in his career. However, if he can reach that level this season, he could seek to approach Crosby's $23.5M APY number.
The Possible Outcomes
Bill Barnwell of ESPN has mentioned Chubb as a possible franchise tag candidate. However, it's not a given that the Broncos will just make him play under the tag if he has a strong 2022 campaign.
Given that Chubb has put up quality numbers in two seasons in which he played the bulk of games, the Broncos might view his 2021 season as an anomaly. Thus, while the tag could come into play, Broncos general manager George Paton might prefer to get a long-term deal done.
Of course, that depends on how well Chubb plays this season. It goes without saying that if he doesn't play well, the Broncos will move on.
As for any hometown discounts Chubb might take, it's possible, though maybe not to a great extent. We have seen Paton sign the likes of Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick to below-market deals at the wide receiver position.
However, Paton also made Justin Simmons the highest-paid safety in the NFL when he extended him last summer. The flip side: some might argue that Paton paid Ronald Darby and D.J. Jones more than they were worth.
In other words, while Paton has made some shrewd signings, not all of his signings came in at what people would call a bargain.
Bottom Line
Should Chubb have a quality season, I would expect he'll be in line for at least a five-year deal worth $90M, or $18M APY. He could be in line for $35M in fully guaranteed money, which was what Harold Landry got for his extension with the Titans.
The Broncos should be able to manage a cap hit for the first year of that deal while still keeping Gregory in 2023. When 2024 arrives, the Broncos can figure out where things stand with Gregory and the other edge rushers on the roster.
If Chubb proves worthy of an extension, the Broncos shouldn't have to re-set the market, though they will have to pay him well. We need to know whether Chubb can get back to the level of play he's shown in the past, and then we'll have the answers.
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