Broncos' Playoff Hunt: Fans Should Root for These Teams in Week 16
Even though the Denver Broncos lost to the Detroit Lions, their playoff hopes are still alive. Week 15 went almost as bad as it could've for the Broncos, with the Baltimore Ravens beating the Jacksonville Jaguars being the only game that went Denver's way.
That means the Broncos need a lot more to go their way this week. As part of Broncos Country's Christmas wishlist, I'm going to break down which teams you should be hoping will present you with a win or loss to help Denver's chances.
The New York Times playoff simulator runs thousands of simulations and calculates the percentages. I'll break down which teams Broncos Country will want to win whether Denver beats or loses to the New England Patriots. However, a loss will all but eliminate the Broncos.
Before getting into the games, we need the Broncos' baseline percentages to start with. The Broncos enter Week 16 with a 23% chance of making the playoffs. A win will get Denver to 32%, while a loss drops it to a 3% chance. The 32% and 3% are where we will be starting.
There will be two percentages representing the Broncos' playoff odds for both wins and losses. The first percentage represents whether the team Broncos Country wants to win actually does so.
Then, the percentage in parentheses will represent the Broncos' chances if the other team wins. So, Broncos win percentage (desired team win percentage), Broncos lose percentage (undesired team win percentage).
Also, the games will go from the most significant to the lowest impact for the Broncos' percentage based on whether Denver beats the Patriots. It won't be in the order the games are on. This will also be a running tally of the percentage instead of starting at 32% and 3%.
Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Who to root for: Chargers
Broncos Win: 38% (29%) | Broncos Loss: 5% (3%)
The Bills are still in the hunt, so the Broncos need help pushing them down to increase their chances. A Chargers win would actually be a big help here and increase Denver's chances by 6%, as long as the Broncos win on Sunday, and increase by 2% if they lose.
Meanwhile, a Broncos and Bills win drops Denver from 32% to 29% (a 3% difference). If the Broncos lose and the Bills win, it won't change their starting percentage.
This will be a tough ask of the Chargers after the Bills ran all over the Dallas Cowboys. It also stinks to be rooting for a divisional foe, but it's in the best interest of the Broncos' playoff chances this week.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Who to root for: Steelers
Broncos Win: 42% (29%) | Broncos lose: 7% (2%)
Much like the previous game, you have the Bengals ahead of the Broncos, but unlike the last game, the Steelers are also ahead of Denver. The Broncos need the Bengals to lose two games, and Cincy has the Kansas City Chiefs still on their schedule. The Steelers need to drop one game, and they still have the Seattle Seahawks and Ravens.
Whether the Broncos win or lose, it's much better if the Steelers win. That would be a 4% increase with a win and a 2% rise if Denver loses. A Broncos and Bengals win would be stagnant with the chances, but a Denver loss and a Cincy win pushes them closer to elimination.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Who to root for: Buccaneers
Broncos win: 46% (26%) | Broncos lose: 8% (1%)
The Jaguars can still miss the playoffs, which can help the Broncos. You want the NFC team to win, with the Jaguars playing an NFC team.
It would help push the Jaguars closer to missing the playoffs and put Denver closer to the 50/50 mark of making it. If the Jaguars win, the Broncos' chances continue to be hurt.
Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans
Who to root for: Browns
Broncos win: 48% (24%) | Broncos lose: 10% (1%)
The Broncos can make the playoffs through these two teams as their remaining schedules can push enough other teams down to get Denver in, with tiebreakers going the Mile High's way. For that to work, the Browns have to beat the Texans. You can read the whole scenario breakdown in my playoff picture outlook.
What helps is the Broncos own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Browns, though the Browns are ahead of the Broncos with their overall record, which is what factors first. Either way, if the Broncos win or lose, a Browns win is best for their chances.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins
Who to root for: Dolphins
Broncos win: 50% (21%) | Broncos lose: 10% (1%)
It may be weird to root for an AFC team when they are taking on an NFC opponent, but there is a scenario where the Bills win the division, which would hurt the Broncos' chances of making it.
The Broncos lose the tiebreakers to the Dolphins, so you want the Dolphins to win the division and not be a factor in the wild card race.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Who to root for: Chiefs
Broncos win: 51% (22%) | Broncos lose: 9% (3%)
This is weird because it depends on what happens in the Broncos game. If the Broncos win, and the other games go in their favor, then they'll want a Chiefs win. However, they'd want the Raiders to win if certain games go differently.
If the Broncos lose, they want the Raiders to win. because a Chiefs victory makes winning the division impossible. So, if games go a certain way, it's better to keep the Raiders out of the hunt instead of joining it and saying goodbye to winning the division. In other scenarios, winning the division would be Denver's only path.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons
Who to root for: Colts
Broncos win: 52% (21%) | Broncos lose: 10% (3%)
Again, rooting for an AFC team over an NFC squad, and this outcome is based on the results of both the Texans and Jaguars games. If those games go the way Denver needs, you want the Colts to push for the division title, which is why you want Indy to beat the Falcons.
You don't want all three of the AFC South teams to be in the thick of it. All three enter Week 16 with an 8-6 record.
Broncos Country wants two AFC South teams to drop to an 8-7 record this week, with Denver winning to get there as well. You want to push for the Colts because they close out the season against the Texans, where Indy can potentially win the division and eliminate Houston from playoff contention.
The Takeaway
Unfortunately, I can't go into every possible situation as so many games remain that still matter. This is the ideal week for the Broncos. Any deviation from this can alter who Broncos Country should want to win the other games.
While there's still a chance the Broncos make it, and the Lions defeat was the best game to lose, they needed to win their final four games to fully secure a playoff spot. Now, the road is much more demanding and outside of Denver's control.
Here is to an ideal week for Denver's playoff chances, which would make all of Broncos Country's holiday wishes come true.
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