Broncos Playoff Hunt: What Every Fan Needs to Know
While the loss to the Detroit Lions on Saturday wasn't ideal for the Denver Broncos' playoff chances, if another defeat was destined to happen, it was the best game to lose. With the Lions being an NFC team, it won't have as much of an impact on the Broncos' playoff tiebreakers as a loss to one of the three teams remaining on the schedule would, all of which are AFC foes, especially the two still within the division.
Denver's road forward is far more challenging than it would've been with a win. According to The New York Times playoff simulator, the Broncos have just a 21% chance of making it entering Week 16. Had Denver beaten the Lions, its chances would be almost triple what they are.
With three games remaining, the Broncos must win out. If the Broncos lose one game or more, their chances are under 5% and could be 0% depending on how other teams do — opponents they're relying on losing to make the playoffs.
There's no room for another loss and barely room for the Broncos to make the dance at 10-7. So, let's get into the different Week 16 scenarios, all of which come with the assumption (hope) of Denver winning out.
Divisional Champions
Technically, there's still a chance the Broncos can win the division, though the odds are quite low. There's a 1% chance for Denver to win the AFC West, and since there's still a chance, we will examine how it could happen.
Denver winning out would take that 1% and increase it to 4% without looking at any of the Kansas City Chiefs' remaining games. The Chiefs' remaining opponents are the Las Vegas Raiders, Cincinnati Bengals, and Los Angeles Chargers.
While the Chiefs sit two games up, they can't lose any two of their three remaining games for the Broncos to make it. Losing to the Bengals wouldn't help Denver, as Denver's way to win the AFC West is through the divisional record tiebreaker.
So, for the Broncos to still win the division, the Chiefs must lose to both the Raiders and the Chargers. That's the only way to a divisional title for the Broncos.
Being a Wild Card
Not only did the Lions loss hurt, but Week 15 went as bad as it could've for the Broncos. Only one of the games went how it needed to: the Miami Dolphins beating the New York Jets. Every other game pushed the Broncos down further as they now sit as the 11th seed in the AFC playoff picture, ahead of only the Raiders and Chargers, for teams not officially eliminated.
So, how do the Broncos make the playoffs? They need three teams ahead of them to lose multiple games and one team to drop at least one.
Let's look at each team ahead of the Broncos. First, if the Broncos win out, their chances of making the playoffs sit at 77%, which means they'd still need help, but they could get the help they need.
After each section, we are re-setting back to the 77% if Denver wins out.
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans
The Chicago Bears needed to beat the Browns but fell short. That was a tough loss for the Broncos' playoff chances. However, the Broncos hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Browns, which is always beneficial.
We will also examine the Houston Texans here, as these two teams play each other this week, which can significantly impact the Broncos. The Browns have the Texans next.
Both teams sit ahead of the Broncos, and Denver has the tiebreaker over the Browns but not the Texans. This game is difficult as so much depends on the rest of these teams' schedules. Looking at only Week 16, the Browns beating the Texans is better for the Broncos. However, it's only a +/-2% either way.
The Jets and Bengals remain for the Browns, with the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts for the Texans. Denver needs two losses from both the Browns and Texans.
The odds of the Browns losing to the Jets and Bengals are lower than the Texans losing to the Titans and the Colts. Ideally, the Texans beat the Browns, then lose to the Titans and Colts, with the Browns also dropping a game to the Bengals. That scenario leads to an 86% chance of Denver making the playoffs — an increase of not quite 10% from winning out.
Now, if the Browns beat the Texans, and Houston later loses to the Titans, defeating the Colts would give Denver a 97% chance of making it. You can also want the Browns to beat the Bengals in their season finale to get them to a >99% chance of making it.
Even though the Browns play the Jets before the Bengals, if things work out this way, that Jets game doesn't matter for the Broncos' chances. The Broncos are relying on the Browns to push the Texans and Bengals down and Houston to push the Colts down.
For this to be the case, Denver needs the Titans to beat the Texans. If the Texans win that game, and everything else goes as mentioned, Denver's chances are only 65% to make it. It's the easiest way into the playoffs.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Next up for the Bengals are the Steelers, and like the last game, I will combine the two here since they play each other. This game can have a significant impact on the Broncos' chances.
In this head-to-head matchup, you want the Steelers to win. A Steelers win, and that 77% goes to 81%, but a Bengals win drops it to 76%. From there, it gets a bit more murky.
The Steelers have the Seattle Seahawks the following week and close with the Baltimore Ravens. Meanwhile, the Bengals have the Chiefs and then the Browns. While the scenario above would suggest a Browns win, it would be different in this situation.
First, you want the Seahawks to beat the Steelers in Week 17 and the Chiefs to beat the Bengals. The Broncos' 81% chances if the Steelers beat the Bengals goes to 82% with a Seahawks win and remains so with a Chiefs win. Any deviation from that would decrease the Broncos' chances to make it.
Now, as mentioned, in this scenario, the Browns-Bengals game is different from the first one. You would want the Bengals to win this time around. The 82% would go to 85%, whereas a Browns win would drop Denver to 78%. The Ravens-Steelers game would be a +/-2% either way in this case.
So, even in this situation, the Broncos would need more help elsewhere to make it, unlike the first situation. The Browns-Texans scenario has more impact with the other teams ahead of Denver for a Wildcard spot than this one, which is where the difference is.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts play the Atlanta Falcons, Raiders, and Texans over their final three games. The Broncos need Indy to drop two of them.
While the Texans game can be huge, the Raiders game also matters. It has the single highest impact on the Broncos from the Colt's remaining schedule, with no other games factored in.
Broncos Country will want to root against the Colts over the final three weeks, starting with the Falcons this week. Due to the higher impact games of the Browns-Texans and Bengals-Steelers, the situation with the Colts is too up in the air to factor the math beyond this week.
It's all because of how much things change with a Texans win or a Browns win. But at least we know for this week, go Falcons.
Buffalo Bills
Like with the Colts, the Bills situation is very much up in the air due to other high-impact games this week. It makes evaluating the situation beyond this week rather tricky.
However, you want the Bills to lose. Buffalo plays the Chargers, New England Patriots, and Dolphins. Plus, the Bills only sit a game ahead of the Broncos, with Denver owning the head-to-head tiebreaker. After Week 16, the picture for both the Bills and Colts should be more clear. Obviously, it will also make things much more straightforward for the Broncos.
The Takeaway
This is a complicated playoff picture with so many teams still involved and only three games left. At this point, the only thing the Broncos can control are the games they play.
Soon, we'll look specifically at the Week 16 games for the Broncos' rooting interests since they need so much help to make it.
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