Broncos Must Win These Key Matchups To Beat Raiders

Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders. Which team has the advantage?

While the Denver Broncos currently sit with a 2-1 record, they've barely managed to muster enough offense to be in that position. After getting over the hurdle of the San Francisco 49ers, they now face their first divisional opponent in the Las Vegas Raiders. 

The Broncos are in a first-place tie in the division, while the Raiders are in last place with a 0-3 record. This is a big game for the Broncos, and if they win, they will find themselves owning first place no matter what happens with the Kansas City Chiefs. 

Entering the week, the Chiefs hold onto first place as they defeated the Los Angeles Chargers, giving them the second tiebreaker, as the Broncos and Chiefs have yet to play. If both the Chiefs and Broncos win, then the tiebreaker goes to conference win percentage, with the Chiefs' loss coming to the Indianapolis Colts. 

However, there is more on the line for the Broncos than their placement in the division. Denver will face its former head coach, who is despised in Broncos Country. Josh McDaniels brought ruin to the Broncos by making one questionable decision after another and got the team embroiled in a cheating scandal. 

McDaniels alienated the young Jay Cutler, traded away other young core members, and traded a 2010 first-round pick to get the 37th overall selection in 2009 on a player that was traded at the start of the 2010 season. 

There is no love lost for McDaniels, and this is being hyped up as a revenge game for him, but also for Broncos Country. Games against the Raiders are never easy, as evidenced by the fact that they've swept the Broncos in each of the past two seasons. 

Las Vegas is a team that will be hunting for its first win. So, when you dig into the matchups, how does this game look? 

Russell Wilson vs. Raiders Defense

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The Raiders were constantly hyped up during the offseason as a great team. However, while they had weapons on offense, their defense was remarkably void of talent. That doesn't mean the unit didn't have some good or great players, but not many of them. 

This bodes well for Wilson, who has struggled a lot over the last two games, despite being victories. His placement and mechanics have been all over the place, and his issues holding the ball too long and missing reads have set the offense back multiple times. 

Despite his issues, the Broncos offense ranks 10th in passing offense DVOA (Football Outsiders), while the Raiders are 23rd in passing defense DVOA. This is a game where Wilson should get back on track.

That doesn't factor in the Raiders' top-two corners are currently injured, with Nate Hobbs not practicing Wednesday and being 'no contact' during the Thursday practice. In addition, Rock Ya-Sin is also dealing with an injury and was limited over the two days. 

Safety Trevon Moehrig, linebacker Denzel Perryman, and interior defensive lineman Bilal Nichols are also limited in practice as starters on the Raiders' defense. 

There is no excuse for Wilson to have the same struggles against the Raiders as in the last two games. Denver needs him to bounce back, and he must. Even with Wilson's struggles, the advantage goes to Denver because of the questions about the Raiders' defense even when they are healthy. 

Advantage: Broncos. 

Broncos Pass Protection vs. Raiders Pass Rushers

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There is a significant concern with the Broncos' pass protection after they struggled against the Niners. However, Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones are both quite capable of getting after the quarterback, even with Jones seemingly on a decline. 

Crosby is the bigger threat, as he ranks 12th in the NFL in pass-rush win percentage among edge rushers with at least 60 pass rush snaps. On top of that, he is tied for third-most pressures after three weeks and 17th in pass rush productivity.

Outside of those two, there isn't a major threat on the Raiders to get after the quarterback, but you can never predict whether someone will step up in the game. 

The Broncos offensive line has had their issues in pass protection, especially against the Niners. They're tied 18th in pass blocking efficiency, 24th in adjusted sack percentage, and tied for 13th in most pressures allowed. 

When the Broncos didn't face teams with exceptional pass-rushing talent, they did a good job, but once Nick Bosa and the Niners came to town, they faltered. The Broncos O-line will have to find a way to control Crosby, who has consistently had huge games against the Broncos. Garett Bolles has to bounce back, as does the unit as a whole.

In six games against the Broncos, Crosby has 7.5 sacks, 26 tackles, and six for a loss. However, with the inconsistency of the Broncos' tackles, the advantage goes to the Raiders. 

Advantage: Raiders. 

Broncos Rushing Game vs. Raiders Run Defense

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The Broncos should be able to win in the trenches in the run game, but they need to see better results with their interior O-line. When watching the Raiders, their interior defensive line consistently struggles to hold up. It's a matchup of two weak areas, so the winner is up in the air. 

The Broncos are 21st in rushing offense DVOA, while the Raiders' rushing defense is 15th. 

The biggest factor here is Javonte Williams. He does a great job of breaking tackles, an area where the Raiders have struggled. However, Denver does need Williams to show a better vision to help improve his impact beyond what it currently is. 

Denver also needs Melvin Gordon to better protect the football. He has fumbled three times in three games, which despite some solid efficiency stats, makes it hard to trust him. However, with what Denver has shown on offense, they cannot afford to give away opportunities. 

The advantage goes slightly to Denver because of Williams and the injuries the Raiders are dealing with on defense. While the final reports are yet to come in, the word from Raiders reporters isn't very positive for some key starters who are hurt. 

Advantage: Slightly Broncos.  

Broncos Passing Game vs. Raiders Coverage

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The advantage here is for the Broncos, even if Hobbs is good for the game. If he isn't, it grows more in their favor, and the same is true with Ya-Sin. 

Even when healthy, the Raiders defense is 23rd in passing DVOA. They have faced the 8th, 10th, and 24th passing offenses in DVOA, with Denver coming in at 14th. 

Opposing quarterbacks have completed 83-of-127 passes for 859 yards with six touchdowns to two interceptions. There has been a lot of success moving the ball through the air against the Raiders' defense, which was one of the team's biggest concerns over the offseason. 

Courtland Sutton has shown to be a reliable receiver for Wilson, and he will get his opportunities. It will be interesting to see how the Broncos use KJ Hamler, as this is a team he could be heavily utilized with success. Jerry Jeudy also has a favorable matchup against the Raiders defense, even if Hobbs and Ya-Sin are back. 

This is a good game to attack the linebackers and safeties of the Raiders, as Roderic Teamer and Johnathan Abram have been two of the worst coverage safeties in the NFL so far this season. Additionally, attacking deep with Hamler or down the seam with Albert Okwuegbunam should be utilized. 

Duron Harmon has been a solid coverage safety and is one to be cautious of on the backend. 

This would be a good game to really open up the usage of the weapons on offense and throw multiple personnel packages against the Raiders. They have dealt with a lot of confusion leading to mistakes, so the more the Broncos can do to create confusion, the better. 

Advantage: Slightly Broncos (pending injury report)

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Derek Carr vs. Broncos Defense

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During his career, Carr is 9-6 against the Broncos, including 6-1 in the last seven games. However, it isn't like Carr played exceptional football during that span. He has thrown for seven touchdowns, an average of one per game, with three interceptions and was sacked 10 times. 

What helps Carr be effective against the Broncos is how quickly he is designed to get rid of the ball. He also likes to take shots when pressure was coming, as he is second in the NFL in yards per attempt when under pressure. However, he is completing 48.3 of his attempts, which is 18th in the NFL. 

Carr hasn't thrown a touchdown or interception when under pressure but has three turnover-worthy plays, which is tied for sixth-most in the NFL. 

Denver has shown the ability to get pressure when rushing only four, which is a way to shut Carr down. When you start throwing in timely blitzes, Carr tends to make mistakes. Denver has to keep the quick passing game limited and not let the Raiders come to life, getting the ball out in under 2.5 seconds. Carr has averaged 2.47 seconds to throw so far this season. 

The advantage goes slightly to the Broncos as they have the pieces to attack where Carr is weakest. Plus, the Raiders offense has had issues shooting itself in the foot with some bad play calling and confusion. However, Carr always tends to step up some against the Broncos, which is why the advantage is only slightly for Denver. 

Advantage: Slightly Broncos.

Broncos Pass Rushers vs. Raiders Pass Protection

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The Raiders offensive line has struggled in pass protection and ranked 13th in total pressures allowed. In addition, their pass-blocking efficiency ranks 15th. 

LT Kolton Miller has practically been a turnstile allowing six total pressures, while RT Jermaine Eluemunor has allowed seven. However, Bradley Chubb and Randy Gregory have proven to be great and efficient with getting pressure and have faced some quality tackles so far this season.

Gregory has the second-highest pass-rush win rate among edges, with at least 60 pass rush snaps, and he is also second in pass rush productivity. He has 14 total pressures so far this season, which ranks seventh-most, and has come on 60 pass-rush snaps. Off the pass rushers ahead of him, the player with the next-fewest pass-rush snaps was 78. 

Chubb is tied 28th in total pressures out of 62 players. In addition, his pass rush win rate is 13th, and pass rush productivity is 20th. Even if the Raiders role with Thayer Munford at tackle, he has had issues in pass protection but is huge for their run game. 

It's easy to see why the Broncos have the advantage with their edge rushers, but it grows even more when you look to the inside. D.J. Jones is in the concussion protocol, so his status for the game is unknown. He is a more significant loss in the run defense, but he has shown a good ability to add pressure up the middle. 

Dre'Mont Jones is poised for a massive game as the Raiders interior offensive line has struggled significantly in pass protection. 

Vegas' rookie center, Dylan Parham, has allowed six pressures. If D.J. Jones can go, that is an exploitable matchup. If Jones can't go, then Mike Purcell should be able to add some interior pressures with a significant strength advantage. However, Andre James is expected back for this game as he works back from a concussion, which would be an improvement at the center position for the Raiders. 

Lester Cotton and John Simpson have done fine as pass protectors, but Dre'Mont Jones has the quickness to exploit them. Jones is one of nine interior defensive linemen to play at least 100 pass-rush snaps this season. He has eight total pressures and a 12.9 pass-rush win rate. 

The advantage is in the Broncos' favor and isn't particularly close. They can get pressure from all over their defensive front and can do so without having to blitz. In addition, Denver's pass rushers consistently win their matchups and have continued to improve as each game progresses. 

Advantage: Broncos. 

Broncos Defense vs. Raiders Running Game

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There isn't much going on for the Raiders' running game, and it largely has to do with their issues on their offensive line. Not one of their offensive linemen is doing a fine job opening running lanes with any consistency. 

While the Broncos have had their issues, they are still a good run defense unit. They are allowing the sixth-fewest rush yards per game and are eight in run defense DVOA. 

If the Broncos don't have D.J. Jones, that'll be a big loss, but after he left against the Niners, the defense still held their own against a tougher rushing offense. The Raiders are averaging only 80 rush yards per game, which is the fifth-fewest of the season. Two of the teams the Broncos have faced sandwich the Raiders as the fourth and sixth. 

With rushing offense DVOA, the Raiders are 23rd. Having Josey Jewell back has been huge for the rushing defense, as there were not the lapses they had when he missed the first two games. 

Even if D.J. Jones isn't good to go, the advantage is still very much in the Broncos' favor. 

Advantage: Broncos. 

Broncos Coverage vs. Raiders Passing Game

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While the Broncos have had some coverage breakdowns, they have been an outstanding unit this season. They got off to a slow start in the season opener against the Seahawks but turned it up in the second half. 

However, this season, the Raiders' passing offense is their biggest test. Even with Hunter Renfrow and Foster Moreau looking like they won't play, the Raiders still have offensive weapons. 

TE Darren Waller has had some huge games against the Broncos, and of course, there is Davante Adams. Mack Hollins has also stepped up as a receiver on that offense. Those three weapons have a combined 44 catches for 580 yards and five touchdowns. 

Patrick Surtain II will have a good matchup against Adams if he is blanketing him for the night. Adams is a threat; even though he doesn't quite have 200 yards receiving, he has three touchdowns. 

Denver will have to figure out how to handle Waller, which will be helped if Surtain can handle Adams one-on-one. You can shift coverage to help handle Waller while leaving Surtain and Darby on Adams and Hollins on an island outside. These receivers won't shoot themselves in the foot often and have dropped three passes as a unit, only two of them among the ones named here. 

The biggest threat of the three is Waller, as there is confidence the Broncos' secondary can limit Adams and Hollins, who has come practically out of nowhere. However, with the matchups and the confidence in the corners, the advantage is only slightly for the Broncos, as they should be able to shift coverage to help handle Waller. 

Advantage: Slightly Broncos. 

Nathaniel Hackett vs. Josh McDaniels

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There have been signs of improvement from Hackett that hopefully continue to show up during games. The next step is seeing a more efficient offense instead of a bad unit for three quarters.

After the first week, I said Denver wouldn't have an advantage with the coaching until Hackett showed his needed growth. That growth still needs to be seen with consistency.

However, after watching what McDaniels did with the Broncos and seeing many of the same issues through three games with the Raiders, there is no way the advantage can be given to Las Vegas.

The advantage is slightly for the Broncos, though both teams have concerns about their head coaches three weeks in.

Advantage: Slightly Broncos. 

Bottom Line

The Broncos cannot afford to lose this game. Even with the struggles the Broncos have had on offense, they still maintain significant advantages vs. the Raiders. Denver's defense looks like a legit top-5 unit at worst, and the Raiders offense has plenty of weapons. 

The Broncos need this win to put themselves in sole possession of first place in the division. After dropping their season opener, the Broncos can't afford to lose the games they should win, such as this one. 

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