Insider Forecasts Broncos Trading Back & Drafting Heisman Finalist QB
Holding the No. 12 overall pick in the 2014 NFL draft, the consensus is the Denver Broncos won't be in spitting distance of landing one of the top-3 quarterbacks of the class. However, Denver is definitely in position to pick from the best of the rest.
Among them is Oregon's Bo Nix, who's coming off a phenomenal senior season where he finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting. It's been #DraftSzn since January 9, and Nix has been floated as a good fit for Sean Payton and the Broncos by many draft experts, analysts, and publications.
Even Pro Football Focus called Nix a "perfect fit" for Payton. Nix has even been compared to Drew Brees, the quarterback with whom Payton won hundreds of games and a Super Bowl. When it comes to the NFL draft, where there's smoke, there's often fire.
Adding to the Nix-to-Denver blaze is Woody Paige of The Denver Gazette — one of the market's most tenured and embedded insiders. In a recent column, Paige seemed to urge the Broncos to draft Nix, but not at No. 12 necessarily.
Not only could the Broncos trade down and draft Bo Nix late in the first round, but they also would get a selection in the second round (which they don’t possess) and a second fifth-round choice.
The incentive for trading down will definitely be there for Denver. And we know how much GM George Paton prioritizes stockpiling draft picks.
However, Payton's track record as a draft artist is the antithesis of Paton. During the 15 years Payton spent in New Orleans co-drafting with GM Mickey Loomis, the Saints' philosophy seemed to be more about creating a short list of prospects they coveted and doing whatever it took within the realm of the achievable to maneuver into a position to land them.
A four or five-player draft haul was not uncommon for Payton in New Orleans, whereas Paton, in his first two years in the Broncos' front office, finished with a 10-player and nine-player class, respectively. In Year 1 of the Payton/Paton partnership, bereft of a first-round pick, the Broncos drafted five players, including a trade-up into Round 2 to land wideout-turned-All-Pro-returner Marvin Mims Jr.
So... anything is possible for the Broncos. As Paige suggests, a trade-back would make a lot of sense, depending on how the board fell in the top 11. But considering Payton's draft resume, we definitely can't rule out a trade-up either.
If the Broncos move on from Russell Wilson as expected, the hunt for the next quarterback of the future will be on. And there's a lot to like about Nix.
After three years as a starter at Auburn, Nix transferred to Oregon. In two seasons with the Ducks, he passed for a combined 8,101 yards and a whopping 74 touchdowns, with just 10 interceptions. Oregon went 22-5 with Nix under center.
However, the 6-foot-3, 214-pound quarterback has plenty of detractors. The biggest criticism of Nix is that he's a "system quarterback." Mile High Huddle's Nick Kendell recently addressed the Nix subject and why he's such a difficult QB prospect to scout.
Nix is a very difficult evaluation. While leading a high-flying offense for the Oregon Ducks this season, the type of throws he was asked to make on a down-to-down basis in Eugene might not translate to Sundays.
Working a lot of simple-read pass plays, Nix was not often asked to go through difficult progressions and throw with anticipation. Thanks in part to a strong talent advantage in most games on top of the scheme Oregon runs, he was able to make obvious and simple reads with the football to target very open players.
Be that as it may, Nix's perceived shortcomings would fit hand-in-glove with Payton's offensive philosophy. Think back to all those years with Brees, and you'll surely remember a prolific iteration of the West Coast offense that exploited the short areas of the field.
Payton loves a QB who can run his offense, keep the play on schedule, and work from the pocket. Nix fits that bill to a 'T.' However, with several stops to go on the pre-draft schedule, including the Senior Bowl, NFL Scouting Combine, and his pro day, Nix will get plenty of opportunities to showcase the full gamut of tools he brings to the table.
It could impact his draft stock mightily, both for the better and the worse, depending on how he performs. I see Nix as a fringe first-rounder, which also happens to be exactly what Brees was when he was coming out of Purdue back in 2001.
It was before the NFL's last expansion, which saw the Houston Texans become the 32nd team, so the first round included 31 selections. Brees was taken by the then-San Diego Chargers with pick No. 33, the first of the second round.
As a Charger, Brees had some success under Marty Schottenheimer, including an 11-win season in 2004 that earned him a Pro Bowl nod. After suffering a career-threatening injury to his throwing shoulder the following year, Brees hit the free-agent market and found only Payton and the Saints as buyers. The rest is history.
Other QBs under consideration for the Broncos at pick 12 include Washington's Michael Penix, Jr. and Michigan's J.J. McCarthy. There's a lot to like about both prospects, but they also have their warts.
A bonafide Broncos insider like Paige raising the Nix-to-Denver flag could be a harbinger of how things play out on Draft Day, even if Payton and Paton don't trade back. Stay tuned.
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