Examining Broncos' Ramifications of Moving on From Von Miller & Potential Free-Agent Options
New Denver Broncos general manager George Paton will have plenty of decisions to make about veterans on the roster, but perhaps his biggest decision concerns eight-time Pro Bowl linebacker Von Miller.
Miller missed the 2020 season because of an ankle injury and will turn 32 years old in March. This came on the heels of producing a 2019 season far from his best. On top of that, he is currently the subject of a criminal investigation by the Parker Police Department in Colorado — though no charges have been filed and it's possible none ever will be.
But even if no charges come about, there are still questions to ask regarding Miller's future with the Broncos.
Let's go over the ramifications of keeping Miller versus moving on, what options are available to reduce his cap number if the Broncos are of a mind to keep him, and who really makes sense among potential unrestricted free agents.
Miller's Cap Charge
First, there's the $22.125M salary-cap charge Miller carries. That comes in the form of a $17.5M base salary, a $500,000 workout bonus, and $4.125M that represents a pro-rated signing bonus he received when he restructured his deal in 2018. The Broncos have a team option on the contract, which they must decide on exercising by March 9.
The $4.125M is a dead money charge that applies if the Broncos decline the option, trade Miller, or exercise the option, then later cut him. But because it was already paid in 2018, it doesn't represent cash the Broncos will have to spend, and the team would gain $18M in cap space.
So from a cap perspective, the Broncos stand to gain more than they lose.
Are there ways the Broncos can reduce Miller's cap charge? There are, and they all get tossed under the term 'restructure.' However, there's often confusion over what is really a restructure and what is actually a renegotiation — or to be more precise, a pay cut.
Technically, a restructure means converting base salary or a roster bonus into a signing bonus. This is not a pay cut, because the player still gets the money — all you're doing is changing the payment terms.
And to get cap relief for Miller, because he's in the last year of his contract, the Broncos would have to extend him. Though there are ways to do it without guaranteeing Miller any money beyond 2021, it's no sure thing that Miller and his agent would accept an extension without guaranteed money beyond 2021.
Thus, we go to what a renegotiation — or pay cut — is really all about: Converting base salary into incentives that the player has a chance to earn back. The Broncos have done this before with the likes of Peyton Manning, DeMarcus Ware, and, most recently, Bryce Callahan.
The renegotiation tactic may be the better option for the Broncos to consider, but it's important to sell it as giving the team flexibility to either retain its own free agents, or add free agents from other teams. In other words, the pitch to Miller should be about improving the team, particularly the defense, and giving the Broncos a better chance to make the playoffs.
What if the Option is Declined?
For starters, it's important that, unless the Broncos think they can trade Miller, the team should decline his option and allow Miller to explore free agency early.
However, the Broncos won't have a chance to gain a compensatory pick for doing so because the NFL changed the comp pick formula so that teams can't gain a pick if they decline a team option.
Trade Options
As for a trade, it's going to be difficult to move an older player who is coming off a season lost entirely to injury. In other words, don't expect the Broncos to get much of anything in return for Miller at this time.
The only way the Broncos might get something in return is if they keep Miller, he plays well in 2021, then he leaves in free agency and signs with another team, in which case, the Broncos might gain a comp pick. There's an outside chance Denver could get a pick for him in a midseason trade, but in that case, it only would happen if the Broncos are out of the playoffs.
Realistically, if you intend to move on from Miller, you're going to decline his option.
Potential Free Agent Field
Assuming the Broncos do move on, who are the potential unrestricted free agents among edge rushers?
Before we get to that, keep in mind the Broncos have Bradley Chubb on the roster. The team is expected to exercise his fifth-year option (estimated to be $13M) and he'll get the chance to prove he's worth a contract that pays him as a top edge rusher. The Broncos would be wise to pump the brakes on signing a top player in free agency, because seeing what Chubb can do first would be paramount.
Now, let's look at some notable edge rushers who may become free agents.
Yannick Ngakoue: He's 26 years old and had eight sacks and 10 quarterback hits while playing 61% of the defensive snaps. However, it won't surprise me if Ngakoue tries to get a top-market deal that exceeds $20M per year. He may be out of the Broncos' price range.
Romeo Okwara: The Detroit Lions edge rusher broke out in 2020 with 10 sacks and 18 QB hits and he'll be just 26 years old. However, he looks more like a scheme fit for Matt Patricia's defense. I'm not inclined to chase after him in free agency.
Haason Reddick: Another young pass rusher who broke out (he'll be 27), Reddick had 12.5 sacks and 16 QB hits. But he's never had more than four sacks in a season before 2020. The Cardinals declined his fifth-year option and might be inclined to put the franchise tag on him — but if they don't, are you sure you want to commit big money to him?
Matt Judon: He played alongside Ngakoue for part of the season, registering six sacks and 21 QB hits. He'll be 29 years old, though, so you have to be careful not to commit yourself for too many years to him.
Shaquil Barrett: The former Bronco had eight sacks and 16 quarterback hits in 2020 — not quite the level he reached in 2019 (leading the NFL in sacks), but still good. There's no guarantee he'd want to return to Denver and, even if he does, he'll be 29 years old, so he's not a player to commit to for too many years.
Leonard Floyd: After a down season with the Bears in 2019, he was released and signed with the Rams, where he had 10.5 sacks and 19 QB hits. He's played for Vic Fangio before, so he would make sense. However, he'll be 29 years old, and thus another player you don't want to tie yourself down to for too long.
Bud Dupree: He had a great 2020 campaign with eight sacks and 15 QB hits. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in early December and his season came to an end. Because of that injury, he's not somebody the Broncos should pursue.
Jadeveon Clowney: He signed with the Titans just before the 2020 season started, but he had just six quarterback hits, no sacks and fell down the depth chart. He wound up on Over the Cap's worst contracts of 2020. It goes without saying I'm ruling him out.
Olivier Vernon: He had a good 2020 season, registering nine sacks and 16 QB hits. However, he suffered a ruptured Achilles in December, ending his season. At 31 years old and with a significant injury, he's not somebody Broncos fans should consider.
Justin Houston: He tallied eight sacks and 12 QB hits, so he's somebody you might consider. However, he's 32 years old, so how much does he have left in the tank? You should proceed with caution with him.
Denico Autry: A teammate of Houston's on the Colts this past season, he registered 7.5 sacks and 10 quarterbacks hits. But he'll be 31 years old, so you have to approach him the same way you would approach Houston.
Ryan Kerrigan: He was mentioned as a possible trade option when Miller went down with his ankle injury last September. However, Kerrigan's best years are behind him. He had 5.5 sacks and six QB hits, but spent his season as a depth player. He'll be 33 years old and really isn't an option to replace Miller.
Melvin Ingram: He missed nine games because of injuries, didn't register a sack this year and had just four QB hits. He'll be 32 years old and he's another player the Broncos shouldn't consider.
Solomon Thomas: The former San Francisco 49ers first-round pick failed to live up to expectations in his first three seasons. To make matters worse, his 2020 season ended after just two games when he tore his ACL. He may be just 26 years old, but his lack of production and injury means he's not the guy you want to pursue.
Other players who will be free agents are either depth guys or aging players, so I won't go over them. But the overall point is that the free-agent field comes with a lot of players who have a factor that doesn't make them an attractive option, whether it's age, injury concerns or lack of production.
For players who don't carry those concerns, they could require too much of a commitment, which could make it difficult to manage Chubb's fifth-year option, then a possible extension. With Miller, you know his contract expires after 2021, meaning you have the cash available to manage Chubb's option year and, perhaps, an extension.
Bottom Line
Let me make one thing clear: If the Parker PD's investigation into Miller results in criminal charges, the Broncos might not have a choice but to decline his option. Denver can't keep him around with his off-field status in question.
If no charges are filed, the Broncos are better off keeping Miller. However, Paton could approach Miller about converting base salary into incentives, but he would need to sell it as freeing up cash to retain or add players who can help the team.
Keeping Miller, though, means you aren't extending him. You let him play out 2021, then go from there, but your expectation is you will be moving on at that point.
If Miller's option is declined, Floyd might be the best option to replace him, but the Broncos would have to be careful how much they commit to him. Otherwise, it's taking your chances on a player who carries one or more of the same questions you have about Miller.
We'll see what Paton thinks, but one thing is clear: This won't be an easy decision, no matter what option you think is best.
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