3 Reasons Landing Deshaun Watson Will Cost Broncos Way More Than Fans Think
There's no question that Deshaun Watson would be a big upgrade over Drew Lock at quarterback for the Denver Broncos.
However, let's not kid ourselves into thinking that the Broncos could land Watson for a pittance from the Houston Texans — and while it's fine to ask about the three-time Pro Bowler, fans need to keep in mind that, yes, there is such a thing as too high of a price.
To understand that limit requires doing more than just looking at where Watson ranks among current NFL quarterbacks — and to be fair, he's top-5 from a talent standpoint — and to look at other factors such as the Texans' roster as it stands, the leverage Houston actually has and the potential pitfalls the Broncos must be wary of when talking about a trade.
Let's go over these factors, one by one.
The Texans Have a Bad Roster Overall
Texans' new GM Nick Caserio.
Houston Texans
Let's face the facts: Whether or not Watson remains with the Texans, they are a team in need of a serious rebuild. New GM Nick Caserio did not inherit a roster with plenty of players with which he can build a team.
The Texans have a good offensive tackle in Laremy Tunsil, a good but aging pass rusher in J.J. Watt, a decent cornerback in Bradley Roby, and a good wide receiver in Brandin Cooks. Otherwise, there's not much to work with here. You could mention wideout Will Fuller, but he's an unrestricted free agent and the Texans have cap problems (which I'll get to later).
We know about the lopsided trades that cost the Texans draft capital, or in the case of DeAndre Hopkins, a top receiver, but those trades are only part of the story. Houston also handed out bad contracts to the likes of Randall Cobb and Eric Murray, then extended Whitney Mercilus, who played poorly in 2020. On top of that, Houston hasn't drafted that well since Rick Smith stepped down as GM.
Looking at the Texans' cap situation, they're projected to be $17.9 million over the cap, assuming a base salary cap of $176M. If we assume the base cap to be $185M, the Texans are still about $9M above the cap.
If the Texans were to keep Watson, they'd still need to rebuild, given how poorly the roster has been built. And since it's going to be difficult, if not impossible, to trade the likes of Cobb, Murray, and Mercilus, Houston's only option is to cut other players.
The Texans can cut running backs David Johnson and Duke Johnson, neither of whom played well last year, but the team will have to let others go, too. Linebacker Benardrick McKinney is likely gone, but the Texans may have to cut or trade Watt, Cooks, or Roby to ensure they have enough space for the offseason.
How does it help a team when it has to part ways with three of the four players who are arguably good enough to put around Watson or another QB?
There are legitimate reasons to point to coaching as a problem for the Texans in 2020, but it wasn't the only issue. If the Texans had done a better job of building the roster, they're likely at least a .500 team, not one that finishes 4-12.
Simply put, the Texans can't go into 2021 thinking they are a playoff contender, Watson or not. It's time for a rebuild — the only question is whether Watson is part of it.
Texans Have More Leverage Than You Think
Trevor Ruszkowski/USA Today
You'd think this means the Texans would have no choice but to trade Watson — and with Watson having a no-trade clause, he gets to control his destiny — right? Not exactly.
A no-trade clause requires the player to approve a trade, but in the NFL, it doesn't mean the player gains all the leverage. If a player tries to force his way out, and to his preferred destination, by sitting out while he is under contract, he loses out on more than people realize.
I'll direct you to Over the Cap's recent podcast in which Jason Fitzgerald discussed how the Texans could fine Watson for missing mandatory activities, then require him to pay back portions of his signing bonus, then start docking his base salary.
This isn't like, say, Le'Veon Bell, who was given the franchise tag by the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2018 but never signed it. While Bell gained no money, he didn't lose money already sitting in his bank account, either. Watson is under contract, has been paid a massive signing bonus, and stands to lose money if he doesn't report.
And given what I've pointed out about the Texans and their need to rebuild, the team may not be happy if Watson sits out, but they still have to know they are rebuilding, so why does it matter if they finish at the top in the 2022 draft order?
Of course, this doesn't mean the Texans don't trade Watson at all. What it means is while Watson has some leverage, but he doesn't have as much leverage as people may think.
Broncos Don't Want to Tear Apart the Offense
Gabe Christus/Denver Broncos
There have been reports that the Texans would at least want two first-, two second-round draft picks, and two young defensive players in a trade for Watson. However, there are two words that need to be emphasized: at least.
There's a very real chance the Texans will ask for more than that and given how poorly their roster is constructed, they need more than young defensive players. They need young offensive players, too.
In all likelihood, the Texans will insist on offensive and defensive players under rookie contracts as part of a trade package — unless they get a suitable amount of draft picks in return.
And despite all public reports to the contrary, I suspect the Texans will want the equivalent of four first-round picks and four second-round picks to get a deal done, if they were to entertain a trade. Teams can't trade draft picks more than three years into the future, so a team like the Broncos would have to include multiple players in a trade package.
So, if the Texans start asking for the Broncos' young offensive playmakers, it's time for GM George Paton to hit the pause button. After all, the main reason you'd want Watson is to see how he would perform with young, highly-drafted skill-position players like Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant, Courtland Sutton, and KJ Hamler surrounding him.
But suppose the Texans insist those four playmakers be part of the package. Paton might be comfortable with Tim Patrick, but now the GM would have to look to DaeSean Hamilton, Tyrie Cleveland, and Albert Okwuegbunam as the next guys up to support Watson under center. Watson might be able to get something out of those players, but it's not the same as having your best possible playmakers.
And if Paton were told to include defensive players, that might mean parting ways with a Pro Bowler like Bradley Chubb, who is emerging into a player the Broncos can build the defense around. Sure, you'd still have Von Miller (depending on how Parker PD's criminal probe shakes out), but he's like Watt in that he can be good, but he's aging and you're asking a lot for him to be the elite player he once was.
I won't harp too much on the defense, though, because I'm not of the belief that the Broncos need to keep every draft pick they have to make it work. However, I'd put my foot down when it comes to touching those young players on offense.
If Paton really wants to compete with the Kansas City Chiefs and the on-the-rise Los Angeles Chargers, the Broncos will need those young, top playmakers on offense to have the best chance. If the Texans insist they be included in a trade package, it's time to stop talking, because it's more likely to be counterproductive.
Bottom Line
I get that fans want to have better quarterback play, but Watson can't turn a bad roster into a playoff contender by snapping his fingers and the biggest reason to land a QB of his caliber is to maximize the talented playmakers the Broncos already have.
Give those playmakers up — and the Texans will certainly ask about them, given the state of their current roster — and the Broncos are likely to do more harm than good.
That doesn't mean Paton can't inquire about Watson. Just don't expect the Broncos GM to give up too much for him.
If you apply Paton's "aggressive but not reckless" philosophy, it follows that he won't deal away too many of those offensive playmakers needed to compete. Remember, Paton reportedly ceased talks about Matthew Stafford when Jeudy and Fant were brought up by the Detroit Lions, and I suspect he'd do the same with Watson.
Because the bottom line is this: When a team needs any player it can get, it's going to ask for any player it thinks it can get — and the last thing Paton wants to do to land Watson is to give up players who could truly help him out.
Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports and @MileHighHuddle.
