Analytics Predict What Role Awaits Broncos Rookie LB Drew Sanders
The Denver Broncos selected two players in the third round in the 2023 NFL draft, taking linebacker Drew Sanders early and then trading back into the round to get cornerback Riley Moss.
The draft pick cupboard was bare for the Broncos in 2023, so they need some of these mid-round picks to 'hit' to get back to their winning ways of old. It will take some time to find out whether Sanders or Moss will become solid players in the NFL, but will they contribute any starts as rookies?
Taking a deep look at how third-round drafted players in the past have fared in the NFL over time can offer some future predictions for both of these players. The first step is determining the probability of a specific pick becoming a primary starter in the NFL based on position and round.
The Probability Metric
The probability of a player drafted in the first half of the third round becoming a primary starter is 0.361, regardless of position. In the second half of Round 3, that probability drops to 0.267.
Off-ball linebackers fare well when drafted in Round 3. They have a probability of becoming a primary starter of 0.485.
However, third-round cornerbacks are one of the worst positions at becoming a primary starter at 0.204. From this perspective, Sanders has a better shot at starting than Moss.
This gives some insight into how a player’s overall career might pan out, but what about their first year in the league? For third-round rookies, the analytics don’t paint a great picture, but there have been a significant number of rookies who have started at least one game.
How the Metric Translates
In 2021, seven NFL players (17%) drafted in the third round became primary starters for their respective teams in their rookie season, and that number only increased to eight (20%) in 2022. In 2021, 32 rookies (78%) started at least one game, and in 2022, it was 30 rookies (73%).
Some started as many as 17 games. The average is seven games for all third-round rookies in both years. Even though these players are considered mid-round draftees, they often get on the field early.
That means it’s more likely that Sanders and Moss will start some games as rookies. How many is a more pertinent question.
READ: Analytics Predict Surprising Role for Broncos Rookie WR Marvin Mims, Jr.
Sanders' Outlook
The Broncos’ off-ball linebacker starters — Josey Jewell and Alex Singleton — have had much different injury statuses over the past two seasons. Jewell missed nearly the entire 2021 season and four games in 2022 due to injury.
Singleton, however, has not missed a game due to injury the past two seasons. The Broncos' primary backup, Jonas Griffith, missed eight games last season due to an injury when he got his first chance to be a starter.
This means that the off-ball linebacking corps is likely to miss games. Sanders is set to be the second guy off the bench after Griffith when it comes to playing time. That bodes well for one of the two third-round rookies.
Moss' Outlook
The cornerback group has been healthier than the linebackers. Of the two starters, Patrick Surtain II has missed only one game due to injury in two seasons, and Damarri Mathis missed only one game in 2022 after taking over the starting role as a rookie.
K’Waun Williams played with a cast on his hand in 2022, and even though fans seem to think he is oft-injured, he only missed three games in 2022 and two games in 2021 due to the bug.
That is a solid track record of staying on the field. Furthermore, head coach Sean Payton wanted to bring in Tremon Smith due to his special teams play and experience.
That experience means Smith is more likely than not going to be the first player on the field if there is an injury in the secondary. Also, don’t forget Essang Bassey, who has some experience in the NFL and has started three games.
This does not bode well for Moss starting many games. It doesn’t mean that he will be a bust, but rather that it will be tough for him to get on the field as a rookie, especially as a starter.
Bottom Line
Out of all the rookies, Sanders will likely start the most games in 2023. It would not be surprising to see him start six or more games in 2023.
Moss will struggle to garner starts. However, he will play in games, especially on special teams, but it will be a surprise if he starts more than two games as a rookie.
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