Analytics Predict Surprising Role for Broncos Rookie WR Marvin Mims, Jr.
The Denver Broncos traded up into Round 2 to select Oklahoma wide receiver Marvin Mims, Jr. in the 2023 NFL draft. With so little draft capital to start with, the Broncos' front office and head coach Sean Payton must have seen something they really liked in Mims.
That begs the question, how many games will Mims start as a rookie?
Regardless of a player’s talent in college and where he was drafted, every draft cycle produces busts and surprises. However, looking at how those past drafted players have fared in the NFL over time can offer some future predictions.
The first step is determining the probability of becoming a primary starter in the NFL based on position and round. The probability of a player drafted in the last eight picks of the second round becoming a primary starter is 0.452, regardless of position.
The wide receiver position fairs better, improving that probability of becoming a primary starter to 0.565. It then becomes a 50/50 proposition, basically, which are much better odds.
This gives some insight into how a player's overall career might pan out, but what about their first year in the league? For second-round rookies, it gets even more promising.
In 2021, 10 players (31%) drafted in the second round became primary starters for their respective teams in their rookie season, and that number jumped to 13 (41%) in 2022. Furthermore, both years show that 24 rookies (75%) started at least one game in their rookie season.
Some started as many as 17 games. The average is eight games for all second-round rookies in both years.
Second-round rookies typically find their way onto the field in a starting role. That means it's more likely than not that Mims will start some games as a Broncos’ rookie. How many is a more pertinent question?
The Broncos' top four wide receivers — Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, and KJ Hamler — have all missed time due to injury over the past two seasons. All of them except Jeudy have missed a full or nearly an entire season due to injury in their respective careers.
Hopefully, none of them will suffer a season-ending injury in 2023. That said, some of them will likely miss time due to health. That will open the door to Mims in the starting lineup.
READ: Marvin Mims, Jr. Details Botched Draft-Day Call From Russell Wilson
Furthermore, there have been rampant rumors about Denver trading a wide receiver, and if that happens, it will make it even more likely that Mims will take a more significant role. Mims is likely the fifth wide receiver, even if all of the aforementioned four remain on the roster.
Last season those players who backed up the top four started a total of nine games, with Kendall Hinton's five starts leading the way. If Mims stays healthy in 2023, he is going to start at least four games, which would be a great start to his rookie campaign and a nice peek into his future with the franchise.
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