Contract Year: Predicting Odds of WR Courtland Sutton Re-Signing With Broncos
This series focuses on Denver Broncos whose multi-year deals are nearing the end, key players who were signed to one-year deals, and those playing under restricted free agent tenders. They are all players who will be eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2022, unless signed to extensions.
The next in this series is wide receiver Courtland Sutton, a player who broke out two years ago, but does that mean he'll be back after 2021?
Career Highlights
A 2018 second-round pick, Sutton sat behind veteran Demaryius Thomas on the depth chart, until the Broncos traded the veteran and the rookie got his chance to start. Sutton finished his rookie year with 42 receptions (on 84 targets) for 704 yards and four touchdowns.
In 2019, Sutton emerged as the Broncos' top receiving threat, catching 72 passes (on 124 targets) for 1,112 yards and six touchdowns. He became Denver's youngest receiver ever to earn a Pro Bowl nod, even though it came as an alternate.
Sutton missed most of the 2020 season after tearing his ACL in Week 2 but is expected to be ready for training camp.
Why he May be Back in 2022
New general manager George Paton has already mentioned Sutton as one of the young players he believes the Broncos can build around. Sutton is clearly one of Drew Lock's favorite receivers — in the five games Lock started in 2019, he targeted Sutton 40 times, an average of eight targets per game.
Despite his ACL injury last season, plenty of receivers at Sutton's age have come back from that injury and remained productive.
RELATED: Contract Year | Predicting Broncos' Odds of Re-Signing S Kareem Jackson
Why he May Not be Back in 2022
Obviously, it remains to be seen if he will bounce back from that injury. A less obvious point is that Tim Patrick was productive last season and might show he is more worthy of an extension.
Even if Sutton outperforms Patrick, the Broncos could prefer to make Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler the primary receivers they build around.
2021 Outlook
When Sutton was drafted, the Broncos'receiver depth chart wasn't as strong as it is now. There are more young, talented receivers who will vie for targets.
However, good quarterback play means there will be plenty of opportunities for all the receivers. It's possible Sutton will be more productive if Lock wins the starting job, given how the QB likes to take shots downfield. However, Sutton could be just as productive if Teddy Bridgewater wins the job.
Verdict
The free-agent market for wide receivers was an odd one in 2021, but it seems likely that if Sutton plays well in 2022, he'll be seeking a big contract. It's hard to see the Broncos paying him what DeAndre Hopkins got from the Arizona Cardinals last year, but the contract Kenny Golladay received from the New York Giants ($18M APY) might be the comparison.
Given that Paton has indicated Sutton is a player he believes the Broncos can build around, it won't be surprising if he is extended, provided he plays well in 2022. Just don't expect that extension to happen until at least midseason, so Paton has an idea about how well Sutton has recovered from injury.
Odds he'll stay after 2021: Good, provided he stays healthy.
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