Sean Payton's Round 3 Track Record is a Harbinger for Broncos
The Denver Broncos' trades in consecutive years to acquire quarterback Russell Wilson and head coach Sean Payton have depleted their stock of early draft picks. Not having a selection this year until Round 3 significantly reduces Denver's ability to draft impact players, something the team is in dire need of entering the 2023 season.
But there is good news.
Analyzing historical data, it's clear that Payton had a solid track record of finding impact players when he was teamed with New Orleans Saints GM Mickey Loomis. The tandem was incredibly effective in the third round. That should give hope to fans anxiously awaiting the 2023 NFL draft.
From 2009 to 2019, the Saints were the top team at finding impact players in the draft when looking at the percentage of impact players found. The team had fewer draft picks than other teams, meaning the Saints didn’t necessarily find as many of those players, but were more effective in the use of those picks.
That alone should give Broncos’ fans hope in the 2023 draft. The Saints found 13 impact players over this time span, ranking in the top five of all teams.
Even more impressive is that Payton and Loomis found five impact players in the third round alone, nearly as many as they were able to draft in the first round. The duo found two in Round 3 during a single draft.
That is quite a feat when the probability of drafting an impact player in Round 3 is .117. Payton and Loomis were four times better.
There is even more good news. Even though the Broncos' front office spent big money to fix the offensive line, they still have a need at center (despite signing a veteran recently), and must prepare for the future at left tackle.
Garett Bolles will be an unrestricted free agent on the verge of turning 33 years old in two seasons. The Saints found three impact offensive linemen, including Terron Armstead, in the third round.
When examining the drafts prior to 2009, you will find that the Saints found Jahri Evans and Jermon Bushrod in the fourth round, Carl Nicks in the fifth, and current Broncos’ offensive line coach Zach Strief in the seventh. Payton’s track record is a harbinger for the Broncos.
The big question is, can the combination of Payton and Broncos GM George Paton create the same draft success the head coach had with Loomis? Paton has an eye for talent, and his first draft with the Broncos was heralded as one of the NFL's best. His second draft was not quite as good, but it wasn’t bad at all.
Combining Payton’s coaching talent and obvious eye for talent with Paton’s ability to draft well, the Broncos are poised to be one of the best in the league at finding impact players going forward.
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