Analyzing Stat Projections for Drew Lock, Broncos' Key Offensive Players

When it comes to covering the NFL, no one has a crystal ball. However, SI Fantasy has the next-best thing.

His name is Shawn Childs and he's had an awful lot of success playing fantasy football over his illustrious career. Childs is viewed as a savant of sorts when it comes to the accuracy of his yearly stat projections for NFL players.

On Wednesday, SI Fantasy published Childs' outlook for the 2020 Denver Broncos. It's a great, well-researched read that even non-fantasy players (if there is such a thing) will find edifying.

Enclosed in the outlook are Childs' statistical projections for each key player on the Broncos' new-look offense. Starting with the quarterback position, let's take a quick look at notable players.

Quarterback

Drew Lock: 323-of-516 (63%), 3,825 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 54 rushes, 167 yards, and two rushing scores.

Analysis: This is right in the pocket of what I've spitballed for Lock on the Huddle Up Podcast many times this offseason. Childs has Lock missing a start, though. It wouldn't surprise me to see Lock eclipse the 4,000-yard passing mark but even at the levels above, it would represent one of the best seasons by any Broncos' QB not-named Elway or Manning all-time.

Running Backs

Melvin Gordon, RB: 212 carries, 869 rushing yards, eight TDs, 47 receptions, 345 receiving yards, two receiving TDs.

Analysis: As you can see, Childs is very high on Gordon's prospects in the Pat Shurmur offense. Gordon's career-high in receptions is 58, so while Childs has said that he wouldn't be shocked to see the RB finish second on the team in receptions this year, to me, those numbers might be a bridge too far. It would almost certainly negate any impact by the RB we'll talk about next.

Phillip Lindsay, RB: 129 carries, 606 rushing yards, five TDs, 47 receptions, 345 receiving yards, three receiving TDs.

Analysis: I understand the national perspective on Gordon being the bell-cow in Denver. And as much as I respect a guy like Childs, if Gordon ends up doubling Lindsay's carry total, suffice to say, I'll believe it when I see it. No RB who's ever crossed Lindsay's orbit has been able to keep him off the field, so on one hand, while I understand that by virtue of the money the Broncos paid Gordon ($16M/2 Yrs), the team will give him every opportunity to take command of the RB1 duties, on the other, this is Lindsay's team. The Colorado Kid isn't going to go gentle into that good night. See Freeman, Royce circa 2018 for the case in point.

Ill tell you this, things always look sweet on paper #wegonnasee
— Phillip Lindsay (@I_CU_boy) June 16, 2020

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Tight End

Noah Fant, TE: 56 receptions, 740 yards, five TDs.

Analysis: Again, Childs' projection is right in the pocket of where I foresee Fant's production falling. He's going to be a focal point in this offense and maybe even Lock's security blanket. I'd bump those TD numbers up by a couple of digits, though.

Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton, WR: 69 receptions, 997 yards, seven TDs.

Analysis: There will definitely be more mouths to feed in Denver this year, but I'd be stunned if Sutton doesn't eclipse the 1,000-yard receiving mark for the second straight year. Based on Childs' projections, all it would take is one more catch to get Sutton over that hump.

Jerry Jeudy, WR: 62 receptions, 883 yards, seven TDs.

Analysis: Childs is taking the 'over' on Jeudy's rookie receiving yardage, based on Vegas' over/under mark of 824.5. I concur but I don't think he'll get as many scores as Childs predicts. Throw one of Jeudy's TDs Sutton's way, and the other Fant's and it'll be closer to how I see it shaking out.

KJ Hamler, WR: 30 receptions, 417 yards, three TDs.

Analysis: I have a hard time envisioning Hamler with a yards-per-catch rate of 13.70 and less than that of Sutton. Hamler is going to be Denver's field stretcher and big-play artist. I agree with the reception share Childs predicts but bump those yards up a hair and I'm right with him.

The Takeaway

Childs' fantasy outlook on the Broncos is a worthy read, so make sure you check it out. If these key skill-position players come close to the marks Childs predicts, it's going to make for a very explosive offense that puts up some points.

That would, in theory, likely result in the Broncos fielding a top-15 offense (at worst) and maybe even a top-10 unit (at best). It wouldn't surprise me but the onus will be on Coach Shurmur and Lock to get a Vulcan mind-meld going early and often.

Combined with what I expect will be a massively improved Vic Fangio defense in Year 2 and the Broncos could very well be a darkhorse contender for the playoffs. Maybe not the AFC West champs putting the hides of 11 wins on the wall but double-digit victories is feasibly on the table in 2020.

If you're a fantasy footballer, be sure to give Shawn a follow on Twitter (@Shawn__Childs).

Follow Chad on Twitter @ChadNJensen and @MileHighHuddle.