Broncos' Stack of 1-Score Losses Could be 2023 Harbinger

The Denver Broncos have been in many close games this season but have come out on the short end of the stick nearly every time. Eight of Denver's 10 losses had a difference of only one score.

Does being so close mean the Broncos are on the cusp of becoming a winner? Is this a harbinger of a new era that begins next season?

The answer includes some good news and bad news, based on history.

Over the past decade, there have been 33 losing-season teams with at least seven losses that were by one score or less. The following season, 79% of those teams showed improvement in the win column. The size of improvement is the difference between good news and bad news.

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We have yet to see how the Broncos will finish the season, but if the loss to the Kansas City Chiefs last week is any indication, they could finish strong. For the sake of argument, let's assume the Broncos win two of their last four games to end this season, finishing with a record of 5-12. A four-game improvement next season would give Denver a winning record for the first time in seven seasons.

How many of these 'close loss' teams improved by four games or more the following season? A decent 33% did just that (the assumption is both the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings this season could finish with a four-game improvement over 2021). One-third of the teams who suffered close defeats in this data batch were able to improve dramatically. Many got over the hump and were able to field a team with a winning record.

The bad news is, 45% of the teams showed only a meager improvement. Many had only a single-game increase in the win column.

Nearly half of the teams only improved slightly, and a meager improvement is not what is necessary for the Broncos or the fan base. Much more is required after the suffering that has taken place since Super Bowl 50.

Some changes and a few improvements in the offseason could be the difference. A new head coach who can get the most out of Russell Wilson and the offense would be a good start. Maintaining a similar defensive performance would likely create a significant performance in the win column when combined with a more effective offense.

The small improvements would include a player or two who could be put in the right position to make that must-needed plays to secure the victory in those close contests. Some changes to the Broncos' offensive line and the growth of the younger players will deliver significant gains.

Finally, a marked reduction in injuries would be a massive turning point for the organization. Hopefully, that will come to pass next season.

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