Broncos Need Playmakers: Analytics Reveal the Ideal Draft & FA Strategy

There's always an argument about how NFL teams should build a roster. The truth is, teams must use a mix of free agency and the draft, and that's especially true for the Denver Broncos, who need to hit on a few players right away to jump from being a fringe playoff team to a bonafide Super Bowl contender.

On offense, the Broncos need to fill three spots to get over the hump: running back, tight end, and wide receiver. The question is whether it would be best to fill these roster holes via free agency or the draft. Analytics provide the answer.

Focusing on running back, tight end, and wide receiver, I examined 22 seasons worth of data, isolated players who started at least 60% of their games in their first three seasons (to remove fringe players who didn’t last in the NFL), and players who played for more than one team. I also removed any age groups with fewer than 10 players to analyze.

Let's start with the running back position.

Running Backs

The running back position is the easiest to understand. The talking heads are telling us that there's a resurgence of aging running backs since Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry signed contracts last offseason with other teams and went on to have great seasons, respectively.

However, these two backs are anomalies. If teams think that they can find the same success with other running backs, disappointment awaits. With absolute clarity, the data shows that running backs have a steep decline in production after age 26.

This analysis makes it crystal clear that taking a chance on a free-agent running back is a good way to waste the salary cap. At age 27, the time a player is typically entering his new contract with another team, his ability to start games and win awards (All-Pro/Pro Bowl) drops off dramatically.

Through most of a running back's first contract, he starts between 75% and 85% of possible games. His peak impact is at 25 and 26 years old when he's winning those awards at the highest rate.

By 28 years old, a running back's percentage of games started drops to 66%, and then at 29, it plummets to 60%. It never recovers to a level above 50% from there. Winning awards for performance also drops off at that age but at a much steeper rate for running backs.

See the graph below.

RB Age Graph. | Thomas Hall/Denver Broncos On SI

What it Means

Getting a running back in free agency is a foolish endeavor. The best spot to find one is in the draft because they typically start to be productive right away.

At age 22 and 23, a running back is starting 75-plus% of possible games. Their impact is higher in the early age group than after 28.

Unless the Broncos can find an already productive 25-year-old running back in free agency who will sign a three-year deal, they should look to the draft in 2025.

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Wide Receiver

Wide receivers typically peak at age 27 with a resurgence often at 31. From ages 26 to 31, receivers never drop below 60% of possible games started and they have a double peak in ability to win awards.

It also takes some time for most receivers to acclimate to the NFL. From 22 to 26, receivers start a high percentage of games, but their level of play is not impactful. Their ability to win awards in the first three seasons is at the lowest level except for those who played past 31 years of age.

See the graph below.

WR Age Graph. | Thomas Hall/Denver Broncos On SI

What it Means

The Broncos need a wide receiver to make an impact in 2025 to challenge the true contenders, it would be smart to find one in free agency or attempt a trade for a young established star.

Tight End

Finally, the position that's been the most elusive to find for the Broncos is tight end. It seems like an eternity since the franchise has had a tight end who could muster up any meaningful production.

If the Broncos want to find one, the draft is where it is at. Tight ends come into the league with a bang.

A tight end's impact is never higher for four straight years than when they first entered the NFL, despite the common perception that this position takes time to acclimate. After age 25, tight end award-winning performances drop like a rock.

Some tight ends see a resurgence at age 30, but it's only for a single season. It then drops off quickly again before finally peaking at 35, but that's due to a very small number skewing the results.

See the graph below.

TE Age Graph. | Thomas Hall/Denver Broncos On SI

What it Means

A tight end's peak for starting games is at 25 years old and slowly trends downward from that point. If the Broncos want to sign a tight end who can be a starter but won't necessarily be a difference-maker, they could look to free agency. However, if the franchise wants a true playmaker, the draft is the place to find one.

The Takeaway

By applying these analytics, the Broncos could use a calculated mix of the draft and free agency to improve the offense in 2025. Sign a veteran wide receiver (Tee Higgins) or trade for one (Garrett Wilson) to immediately fast-track the passing game.

From there, the Broncos can use the draft to grab a young running back and tight end to fill out the playmakers on offense. This would be the optimal mix to build the nest around Bo Nix and compete in 2025.

Running Backs

What it Means

Wide Receiver

What it Means

Tight End

What it Means

The Takeaway

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