Broncos' Big Remaining Defensive Holes Heading into Draft Revealed by NFL Insider

Last week, we discussed ESPN analyst Mike Clay’s grades and projections for the 2020 Denver Broncos’ offense. Despite the additions in Graham Glasgow and Melvin Gordon, Clay projected the Broncos to possess one of the less competent units in the NFL next season ranking as the 24th offense.

Of course, a large reason for this lower-level projection is due to so much being unknown about Drew Lock. If Lock proves capable, which is definitely possible given the positive flashes he showed in a very small sample size in 2019, the offense will be better. It’s a quarterback-driven league.

The low ranking of Lock is understandable, however, the units around him were somewhat surprising. Ranking the running backs a top-10 unit and the offensive line the 12th-best in the league, the Broncos seem built to play ground-and-pound with a good defense next year.

The offense may have to play that way because while Clay liked the Broncos' backs and offensive line, the wide receiver room was the third-worst in the entire NFL. Thank goodness for the existence of Courtland Sutton and no wonder the current favorite for the Broncos in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft is at wide receiver.

The Broncos' offensive output should be improving over years past given the recent surge in investments and hits on that side of the ball. However, make no mistake; if the Broncos are going to find their way back into the playoffs for the first time since 2015, it will once again be on the strength of the defense.

With all the talent under the eye of defensive wizard and head coach Vic Fangio, Clay expects what was a good 2019 Broncos’ defense to be even better in 2020.

Here we go: First official run of 2020 NFL Unit Grades.

Each of the 10 units ranked on 0.0-4.0 scale. Overall scores are weighted by positional importance (primarily $$ guarantees). #ClayProjections pic.twitter.com/fVxmpd71Co
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) March 31, 2020

Let’s dig in and see just where the Broncos rank defensively compared to their NFL counterparts heading into the draft according to Clay.

Edge Rusher: Honestly Perhaps Underrated

While the ‘No Fly Zone’ gets the catchy name to remember, the edge rushing unit for that Super Bowl-champion defense deserves equal exaltation. Rostering the likes of DeMarcus Ware, Von Miller, Shaquil Barret, and a healthy Shane Ray, the Broncos oozed talent and depth from the edge.

While the Broncos still have Miller, who despite the lower sack numbers in 2019 was still highly effective in his pressure rates, the depth of the edge attack is not nearly as formidable as 2015. That 2015 defense was an all-timer for a reason.

However, while that 2015 defense had depth, it could be argued that none of those players are as talented as Bradley Chubb entering his third season in the NFL. Coming off of a fabulous rookie season, Chubb’s sophomore campaign was cut short by an ACL injury. That ACL injury adds some murkiness to his level of play in 2020 but make no mistake, a duo of Miller and Chubb is as formidable as any in the league.

The depth behind Chubb and Von is not as dangerous, though. Jeremiah Attaochu, Malik Reed, and Justin Hollins all flashed at different points last season, but none really are the level of Ray (again he was pretty good when he was healthy) and Barrett circa 2015.

In the end, Clay graded the Broncos’ edge rushers a 3.3 out of 4.0, ranking them as the 7th-best edge unit int he NFL. However, entering year two in the Fangio defense and a full season of Chubb, this unit has the upside to finish as top-3 in the NFL.

Interior Defensive Line: Strong & Solid

The Broncos’ interior defensive line in 2020 is going to look far more recognizable than anyone could have expected. Losing Derek Wolfe to the Baltimore Ravens was bittersweet, thanks to the addition of perennial Pro Bowler Jurrell Casey, which makes it more palatable. Casey is a versatile, high-level player that if he played in a bigger market or on a team with more success, he would have far more notoriety than he currently possesses.

Other than substituting Casey for Wolfe, the Broncos’ Dline will look rather the same. Bringing back Shelby Harris for a one-year, $3.25 million contract was perhaps the surprise of the offseason for the Broncos, given what many believed his market would be heading into free agency.

Also, the Broncos return solid run-stuffing nose tackle Mike Purcell and ascending 2019 third-round pick Dre’Mont Jones, who really had some outstanding reps to close out last season and could take a large step forward this season.

The Broncos’ D-line earned a very solid 3.1 grade from Clay in his analysis which ranked them as the 8th best defensive line in the entire NFL. Pairing the quality and depth of that unit with the likes of Von Miller and Bradley Chubb should give the Broncos one of their better defensive fronts this team has seen over the past few seasons.

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Linebacker: Consistently Underrated & Under-Appreciated

There is something about the romanticizing of the linebacker position in Broncos Country that I both understand and don’t understand. One of my favorite Broncos all-time was Bill Romanowski, only to see that love shift to Al Wilson in the early 2000s. The big, mean linebacker with the large neckroll, face mask, and eye black really is incredible imagery when thinking about what a football player should look like.

Unfortunately for linebackers in today’s NFL, the game is changing. LBs are being replaced for defensive backs to place more speed and coverage on the field, which means LBs who are slow run stuffers are a dying breed in today’s NFL because they're easy to exploit. Given the athletes playing in slot, tight end, and running back in the receiving game these days, it's no wonder teams try to isolate the old school thumpers in space and pick on them in the passing game.

Despite some discontent for the Broncos’ duo of Todd Davis and Alexander Johnson from the fanbase, the duo is actually one of the more solid starting linebacking units in today’s NFL. While neither are dynamic athletes in space, in regards to coverage, both played their roles in 2019 extremely well and became far and away the best linebackers in the AFC West.

Davis is perhaps the most misunderstood linebacker in football. Playing over 100 snaps in the slot last year, Davis was miscast due to the lack of coverage talent at linebacker to complement him in 2019. However, when allowed to play more in the box, deconstruct blockers, and fill gaps, there are few that are as consistent as Davis. He will never be Luke Kuechly, but what he does he does very well on top of being the signal-caller of the defense.

Johnson was one of the biggest surprises of the 2019 season. After flashing some in preseason, he was not thrust into the starting lineup until the Week 5 Chargers game in which he made play after play.

While not a great coverage player, as should be obvious watching how the Broncos preferred to use Davis in coverage and send Johnson on blitzes, Johnson is big and instinctual and plays with tremendous energy. Year two as a starter should see him be even better in this defense.

The Broncos absolutely need more coverage ability from the linebacker position. This does not mean the team will draft an athletic linebacker, as coverage is as much about intelligence, instincts, and technique as it is movement skills. Just look back to Devin Bush on the Steelers last season. Bush is fast and a good athlete but he was beaten continually in coverage.

Athleticism does not equate to coverage ability. Given the depth of Josey Jewell and Joe Jones at linebacker, Denver should be on the market for linebacker Rounds 2-4 — depending on how the board falls.

Overall, Clay ranks the Broncos’ linebackers as the 10th-best unit in the NFL with a grade of 2.9. Denver could use more athleticism and coverage to help supplement Davis and Johnson, but this duo is far from a weakness on the defense.

Cornerback: The Defenses’ Achilles Heel

Again, the No Fly Zone was a rarity worthy of its nickname. The trio of man coverage corners in Aqib Talib, Chris Harris, Jr., and Bradley Roby gave the Broncos the ability to choke out boundary passing attack of the opposing team and allocate resources elsewhere to create chaos. For the cornerback position, quantity is as important as quality.

The Broncos' current cornerback grouping is simply full of massive unknowns. While bringing in A.J. Bouye should help somewhat in the loss of Harris Jr., Bouye is coming off of a poor season.

Bouye also has a history of missing time due to injury. Bouye is a fine corner and could start on any team, really, but is he a CB1 or CB2 at this point in his career?

After Bouye, it’s a massive heaping of ‘potential’ at cornerback for Denver. Despite paying Bryce Callahan a solid contract last offseason, he re-aggravated a foot injury in training camp that would cost him the entirety of last season.

There were rumors purporting the entire reason Callahan was available as late in the free-agent process as he was last year was due to massive concerns about that foot injury. Callahan is good when healthy, but will he ever be healthy again and to what level will his play be at after missing an entire season?

After Callahan, the Broncos' third corner appears to be De'Vante Bausby. After making a splash playing in the AAF, Bausby joined the Broncos and had some solid play in extremely limited action. The play against the Chargers and Packers was promising but it was such an incredibly small sample size it’s hard to take too much away from his tape.

The Broncos did not place a tag on Bausby this offseason when they could have and guaranteed his return in 2020. If he was thought of as this high-level corner option for Denver, would the team have even risked letting him hit the open market when it could have had him back on a cheap tender? That is a question worth pondering.

After the trio of Bouye, Callahan, and Bausby, who knows what the Broncos have at cornerback. Is Isaac Yiadom going to transition to safety? What position is Duke Dawson? Was Davontae Harris’ massive regression after the bye week (only to see a total of three defensive snaps over the final five weeks of the season) who he is as a player?

Clay does not trust the depth or talent of the Broncos’ cornerbacks, grading them as a 1.5 and the 21st-ranked cornerback group in the NFL. Luckily for the Broncos, there are still a number of good corners available in free agency and the NFL draft to bolster the depth, but the No Fly Zone is a faded memory for the corners at this point.

Safety: Strong Starting Duo but What About No. 3?

Yes, the corners are nowhere near as strong as the No Fly Zone of 2015, but honestly, I will take the Broncos’ 2020 safeties over Darian Stewart and T.J. Ward (no disrespect to either). After moving Kareem Jackson from corner to safety and seeing Justin Simmons take a massive step forward in his fourth season, the Broncos’ starting safety duo is as talented as any in the entire NFL.

There is something to be said about Fangio and DC Ed Donatell as historically both have been able to take safeties and put them in positions to thrive, but goodness, Jackson and Simmons were really good last season. Both offer versatility in their ability to come down and play different coverages and help disguise what the defensive call is to opposing offenses.

Neither really have massive single-high coverage ability, but for this specific defense, both fit quite well. Simmons especially saw a massive bump in play last year and emerged as one of the best young safeties in football. He perhaps will never be a perennial All-Pro (though he did earn second-team honors last year), but expect Simmons to be a constant at Pro Bowls for the next few years.

One underrated hole on this roster, though, is that third safety spot for the Broncos. With Will Parks now in Philadelphia, the Broncos are on the market for a third safety that can come in and play the slot. While Parks is considered a safety, the line should be blurred given that over the final five weeks of the season, Parks played 209 of his 248 defensive snaps (84%) as the slot corner.

While the Broncos do have Trey Marshall, who played in replacement for Jackson the final two weeks last year, they currently have a massive hole at slot and that third safety that can offer better coverage than a linebacker inside and better size than a corner. There is a reason the Broncos have been linked to safeties during this draft process and prospects specifically that can play that slot spot. It was essentially a starting position for Denver’s defense last year.

All-in-all, the safety duo of Jackson and Simmons gives Denver a very strong unit and earned a 3.5 grade from Mike Clay and ranking as the 5th-best safety unit in the NFL. Hopefully, the strength of the Broncos’ safeties can help overcome the questions at corner.

Overall Defense: Chance to be Excellent if CB Doesn’t Spoil it

Outside of the cornerback position for the Broncos, Clay ranks every single unit for the defense in the top-10 in the NFL. With a very strong front seven and an excellent safety duo, the Broncos’ defense should keep them in many games. The issues at corner should be somewhat mitigated against teams’ with mediocre or worse passing games, but likely will show to be an issue when Denver comes up against the likes of Patrick Mahomes.

Clay ranks the Broncos’ defense heading into 2020 as the third-best defense in the entire NFL, earning a grade of 1.2. The only defenses graded higher are the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New Orleans Saints.

With a strong running back unit, a solid and absolutely underrated offensive line, and a great defense, the Broncos may have to bludgeon their way to wins in 2020 to make the playoffs. It can be done.

However, with all analytics pointing more and more to the value of the passing game in today’s NFL, Denver’s glaring weaknesses in that department, both on the offensive and defensive side of the ball, will cap the overall potential of this team. Analytics and data only take one so far, though, as the games are played on the field for a reason.

If Lock can be ‘the guy’, everything else can fall into place. Even if Lock ends up a franchise quarterback, the success of the 2020 Broncos likely falls on the talent and play of the defense.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Follow Nick on Twitter @NickKendellMHH and @MileHighHuddle.