Examining the Comp Picks Broncos Could net From 2020's Possible Free-Agent Exodus

The Denver Broncos have 11 players who would be eligible to return a compensatory draft pick to the team if they hit free agency. Not all players will make it to free agency, of course, but it appears the majority will hit the open market.

Not every player will net the Broncos a compensatory pick in 2021, though. The maximum picks a team may receive is four and, for every compensatory free agent signed, it cancels a pick for a compensatory free agent lost to another team.

Compensatory free agents, by definition, are unrestricted free agents whose current deals have expired. Any restricted free agent who isn't tendered doesn't factor into the comp pick formula, nor do players who were released from their contracts (also known as street free agents). And as previously discussed, players who have team options declined will no longer factor into the comp pick formula.

There are two unrestricted free agents who I expect will remain with the Broncos: S Justin Simmons and LS Casey Kreiter. We know Simmons will get the franchise tag if he isn't extended and I expect the Broncos will get a deal done with Kreiter.

What happens with other unrestricted free agents, if they sign with other teams, remains to be seen. It all depends not only on who the Broncos sign, but who other teams sign or lose.

Keep in mind that there could be several quarterbacks who change teams, meaning those teams could be in line for third-round comp picks. The same could hold true for any player at another premium position who signs a big contract elsewhere.

Knowing this, what comp picks could Broncos unrestricted free agents net, assuming the Broncos didn't sign any free agents who count toward the formula? Let's look at the possibilities.

Chris Harris, Jr.: 3rd/4th round

Harris is going to test the open market and he may be one of those players trying to re-set the cornerback market. If that does happen, Harris' deal might be worth a third-round pick. But he could be worth only a fourth-rounder depending on other contracts players sign or if he comes in below numbers that re-set the cornerback market.

Shelby Harris: 3rd/4th/5th round

The other Harris is tougher to place. The numbers some are projecting for him are a broad range. There's a slight chance he could get a deal that pushes him toward a third-round comp pick. However, I think it's more likely he'll net a fourth-rounder. There are those who think he'll have to take less money, which could mean he'd only net a fifth-rounder. I'd say the odds favor a fourth-rounder as the maximum, but it's possible a team could throw crazy money at him.

Derek Wolfe: 4th/5th round

Wolfe appears to want to test the market before deciding if he wants to stay with the Broncos. I don't think he's going to re-set the market, but he could get a salary that puts him in line for a fourth-round comp pick. A lower-cost deal likely puts him at a fifth-rounder. However, if the money he gets elsewhere would put him in line for a fifth-round pick, I suspect he's going to stay with the Broncos rather than go elsewhere.

Connor McGovern: 4th/5th round

McGovern seems more likely to move on and, if he hits the numbers that are likely go to centers in free agency, that would put him in line for a fourth-round comp pick. If he has to take less money, or if a lot of players get crazy money in free agency and the teams that lose them don't pursue other compensatory free agents, that may push McGovern down to a fifth-rounder.

Will Parks: 5th/6th round

While I'm sure the Broncos would like to keep Parks, I have maintained that he will want a chance to start and will look elsewhere for it. All indications are that's exactly what is going to happen. Parks may be more likely to bet on himself with another team, meaning it's more likely he'll fall down to the fifth- or sixth-round comp pick range. It wouldn't surprise me if he does get a deal that puts him on the higher end of that range, but I don't expect him to net higher than a fifth.

Jeremiah Attaochu: 6th/7th round

Attaochu is another player the Broncos have interest in keeping, but he could be looking for a chance to start. As with Parks, I don't expect Attaochu to get a lot of money, but he could get enough that puts him into the sixth-round range if it's a one-year deal that lets him compete for a starting job. However, it's possible he could have to take less money and thus only net a seventh-rounder. But if the money elsewhere put him in that range, I suspect he may opt to stay with the Broncos.

Theo Riddick: 7th round

It doesn't look like the Broncos will keep Riddick and, though he never played a regular-season snap, he could still count toward the comp pick formula if another team thinks he can contribute. I don't think it will go any higher than a seventh-rounder, though. While some might think there's no way Riddick factors in, stranger things have happened.

Devontae Booker: 7th round

As with Riddick, some might think there's no way Booker will factor into the comp pick formula. But, again, stranger things have happened. Just ask yourself if you ever thought Tramaine Brock would have had a chance to count toward the comp pick formula, yet current projections suggest he might slip in. But, as with Riddick, a seventh-rounder is the highest I expect Booker to net, if he does net a pick.

Adam Gotsis: None

If Gotsis were healthy, he might have gotten enough to get into the sixth-round range. But because he was injured late in the season, he won't be signing with another team until he can pass a physical. The timeline for his recovery could continue past the draft, meaning he wouldn't count toward the comp pick formula at that point. Therefore, Gotsis isn't going to get the Broncos a comp pick.

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A Sample Scenario

To give you an idea about how the comp pick formula works, let's say that the Broncos, along with keeping Simmons and Kreiter, get Wolfe extended, then add Dallas CB Byron Jones, Cleveland LB Joe Schobert and Ravens DL Michael Pierce in free agency. Everybody else signs with other teams before the draft, except for Gotsis and one of the two running backs.

Jones and Schobert would certainly cancel comp picks for Harris, Jr. and Shelby Harris, while Pierce would cancel a pick for either McGovern or Parks. That still leaves two comp picks coming for the other player between McGovern and Parks, and Attaochu, with an outside chance of a comp pick for the running back.

There are other factors that could play into the comp pick formula, but it won't surprise me if the Broncos get a couple of such picks for 2021. That's a good thing, because it will give the Broncos more draft capital to keep replenishing the roster.

With that said, the Broncos don't have to fixate on comp picks when it comes to free agency. They need to first focus on the best fits available in free agency, whether they count toward the comp pick formula or not.

Find the right players and don't overpay for average talent, then let the comp picks take care of themselves.

Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports and @MileHighHuddle.

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