ESPN Renders Dubious Stat Projection for Drew Lock's 2020 Season

ESPN isn't very bullish on Drew Lock's 2020 outlook.

The Denver Broncos just spent an offseason applying the finishing touches to a microwaved rebuild. After drafting WR Courtland Sutton in 2018, the Broncos landed the trio of TE Noah Fant, OL Dalton Risner, and QB Drew Lock in the draft the following spring. 

Then, having stacked two impressive, offensive-focused draft classes back-to-back, GM John Elway tripled down, emphasizing that side of the ball in the premium rounds of the 2020 draft. WRs Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler were the Broncos' first two picks, with the team also selecting a starting-caliber center in Lloyd Cushenberry III and sub-4.50 TE Albert Okwuegbunam. 

The table has been set, now it would seem all Lock has to do entering Year 2 is choose how best to maximize the offensive smorgasbord Elway has provided. Suffice to say, with a new offensive coordinator in tow, the expectations are high for Lock and the Broncos in 2020. 

However, the national perspective has often been impervious to the maneuvers the Broncos have made of late, especially as it relates to power rankings and projections. ESPN's Mike Clay is the latest national pundit to weigh in with a future-oriented focus on Lock. 

In his annual projections, wherein he goes team-by-team to predict what the upcoming season has in store statistically, Clay revealed his wager on what awaits Lock in 2020. Clay's projection: 

Mike Clay/ESPN

Clay's projected stats for Lock: 494 attempts, 314 completions (63.5%), 3,510 passing yards, 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, 51 rushes, 221 yards and one score on the ground. 

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Clay also projects Lock will be sacked 32 times, which would be nine less QB takedowns than the Broncos relinquished in 2019 on three different starters. 

While I respect Clay's analysis and projections, allow me to inject some context and a counter-balance.

Based on the five games Lock started in 2019, extrapolating his production in ex-OC Rich Scangarello's offense over an entire 16-game season, his stats would have looked like this: 

64.1 completion percentage, 3,264 yards, 22 TD, 10 INT. 

That was under the purview of a first-time coordinator and QBs coach. Now, replace Scangarello and T.C. McCartney with Pat Shurmur and Mike Shula — two coaches with more than a decade of experience in their respective roles —combined with at least a modest showing of improvement jumping from Year 1 to Year 2, plus an embarrassment of riches at the skill positions, and a retooled and upgraded offensive line. 

Extrapolating a five-game production over a 16-game sample size might not be a foolproof scientific endeavor but then again, no matter what means one uses to make a statistical projection for an upcoming season, it's not going to be perfect and it's unlikely to be perfectly accurate. 

Through that lens, I don't know what formula or metrics Clay uses to render his projections each year, but I find this one a little questionable, with all due respect. However, it's worth noting that Clay has Lock missing one game in 2020. So these projections are the sum of 15 — not 16 — games. 

Considering that Daniel Jones passed for over 3,000 yards with a TD-to-INT ratio of 24-to-12 under the wing of Shurmur and Shula in New York — as a rookie — I'd really like to know how Clay rationalized Lock turning in worse numbers with four more games in the sample size in his Year 2 projections. 

I view Jones' TD-to-INT ratio as the floor for Lock in Year 2. Bump that passing yardage to closer to 3,800 and it falls in line a little closer to how I see it unfolding for Lock in 2020. But make no mistake, I'm not exactly a football Nostradamus. 

Silver Lining

3,500 passing yards with a 2-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio in Year 2 would be a more-than-solid showing for Lock. While it most certainly wouldn't place him as that next second-year QB to take the NFL by storm, as guys like Colin Cowherd have predicted, it would represent a solid, efficient season. 

If Lock's numbers do come close to mirroring Clay's projections, it likely means that the Broncos became one of the league's premier rushing teams with RBs Phillip Lindsay and Melvin Gordon serving as the offense's tip of the spear. A very plausible outcome.

It's going to be fun to see how it shakes out for Lock and company. 

Follow Chad on Twitter @ChadNJensen and @MileHighHuddle.