Broncos Free Agency: What the Top Vets at Each Need Position Will Cost

When free agency gets underway, you're likely to see a lot of big numbers get thrown around. We're already seeing the bar getting set at certain positions and, if others agree to terms with their current teams, it'll happen there, too.

To give everyone an idea about how much a team could be expected to pay for a player, I have split up free agents into tiers and pegged what salary range I would expect them to get on the open market, based on my research.

The top tier has the salary floor I talked about a couple weeks ago, in which the top talent is going to come at big price. The second tier includes players who probably won't hit the top tier, but are going to get deals approaching that mark. The third tier covers players who aren't likely to get top deals, but won't necessarily come at the price you expect.

The value tier represents players who are going to have to take less money, but could be solid buys if other factors fall into place (coaching, scheme, etc.).

To get players split up into tiers, I primarily looked at Walter Football's free agent rankings. Granted, their rankings aren't the best measure to rank free agents in terms of the talents they really bring and how they fit into schemes.

However, the free agents that Walter Football ranks high tend to be the ones that get the biggest contracts. There have been exceptions, but for the most part, you can get an idea from their rankings who is likely to command the most money.

I'm going to keep the focus on the positions that the Denver Broncos are most likely to address in free agency, but will examine a couple of positions that some fans may have talked about as free agent targets. Though the talk has been that the Broncos will buy a defense in free agency and fill the offense through the draft, there could be a few positions on offense at which the team will at least address depth.

Let's go over the list of free agents, divided into tiers based on who I would expect will get the most money and who could be potential value signings.

Safety

Though the Broncos are going to franchise tag Justin Simmons, I'll rank the most notable safeties based on the expected salary range.

Top tier ($14M or more): Justin Simmons, Anthony Harris, Jimmie Ward

Second tier ($11M to $13M): Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix, Devin McCourty

Third tier ($8M to $10M): Adrian Phillips, Rodney McLeod

Value tier ($7M or less): Damarious Randall, Clayton Geathers, Tre Boston, Tony Jefferson, Tavon Wilson

Harris will get paid well, whether it's from the Vikings (who need the cap space to tag him) or from another team. Ward could be one of those players who benefit from a Super Bowl run.

Though McCourty is aging, Bill Belichick values defensive backs and, while he may stick with a short-term deal, he's likely to have to pay up to keep McCourty around. I would expect Will Parks to come in around $5M and that might be on a one-year deal in which he bets on himself like Shaq Barrett.

Cornerbacks

The Broncos traded for A.J. Bouye but could still be in the market for another veteran corner. Chris Harris, Jr. is a noteworthy free agent.

Top tier ($15M or more): Chris Harris, Jr., Byron Jones, James Bradberry

Second tier ($12M to $14M): Darqueze Denard, Bradley Roby, Brian Poole

Third tier ($8M to $11M): Jimmy Smith, Ronald Darby, Kendall Fuller, Logan Ryan

Value tier ($7M or less): Prince Amukamara, Trae Waynes, Mackenzie Alexander, Kevin Johnson, Breshaud Breeland

It's no surprise I expect Harris to be one of those players who re-sets the market. Former Bronco Bradley Roby is more likely to get a more long-term deal this time, but probably won't join others in re-setting the market.

I expect somebody to pay Smith based on his past reputation and, because Fuller is young and was on a Super Bowl team, somebody could pay more than what you expect him to get.

Interior D-Line

With Chris Jones expected to get the franchise tag from the Kansas City Chiefs, most of the available free agents aren't going to approach Aaron Donald money. However, some are going to want to approach what Jurell Casey is getting from the Titans.

Top tier ($15M or more): Chris Jones

Second tier ($12M to $14M): Shelby Harris, D.J. Reader, Javon Hargrave

Third tier ($8M to $11M): Derek Wolfe, Leonard Williams, Michael Pierce, Michael Brockers, Ndamukong Suh, Marcel Dareus, Gerald McCoy

Value tier ($7M or less): Timothy Jernigan, Andrew Billings, Christian Covington, Mike Daniels, Damon Harrison, Jordan Phillips

You can see there are a lot of interior defenders set to hit free agency. Though I believe only Jones is going to get into the top tier, you can see several players who will likely hit the second tier, should they hit the open market, and some of the players in the third tier might try to get into the second tier.

Not everyone in the value tier is a good fit for Vic Fangio's scheme, but there are a few to keep an eye on.

Off-ball linebacker

The market got re-set last year and I suspect a couple of free agents will be looking to get what C.J. Mosley and Kwon Alexander got, though I don't expect anyone to approach Bobby Wagner's deal.

Top tier ($14M or more): Cory Littleton

Second tier ($10M to $13M): Joe Schobert, Blake Martinez

Third tier ($7M to $9M): Nick Kwiatkoski, Danny Trevathan, Alec Ogletree, A.J. Klein, Jamie Collins

Value tier ($6M or less): Nigel Bradham, Reggie Ragland, Darron Lee, Mychal Kendricks

I expect Littleton is going to get a massive contract, one that may be too much for the Broncos to want to give him. Schobert is reportedly seeking $10M APY and his deal might fall in at more than that, and Martinez could follow suit.

The Bears have multiple free-agent linebackers and Broncos fans know Trevathan well. If you're worried about overspending, the value tier might be your best bet.

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Offensive Tackle

The Broncos could be a player for veterans for depth, but for those who still hope for a starter, this will give you an idea that it's likely out of the question.

Top tier ($16M or more): Anthony Castonzo, Jack Conklin

Second tier ($13M to $15M): Bryan Bulaga

Third tier ($10M to $12M): Jason Peters, Kelvin Beachum,

Value tier ($9M or less): Andrew Whitworth, Demar Dotson, Marcus Gilbert

The thing to keep in mind is that several of these players are past 30 years old and a few are more than 35 (Peters, Whitworth, Dotson). You are looking at a short-term solution with most of these players, save for the top-three.

Given that the Broncos have a large sum committed to Ja'Wuan James this year, don't expect the team to sign an offensive tackle who will start.

Offensive Guard

The Broncos' reported plan to tender Elijah Wilkinson would indicate they want to move him to right guard to replace Ronald Leary, who will get his option declined. It's not likely the Broncos pursue a big-ticket free agent.

Top tier ($12M or more): Brandon Scherff, Joe Thuney

Second tier ($10M to $11M): Greg Van Roten

Third tier ($7M to $9M): Andrus Peat, Daryl Williams

Value tier ($6M or less): Mike Iupati, Quinton Spain, Michael Schofield, Alex Lewis

Scherff and Thuney are likely to get massive contracts if they hit the open market — Scherff might get the tag, while Thuney likely hits free agency. Because the quality of talent drops down after Scherff and Thuney, prices are likely to get much higher than the Broncos may want to pay.

Center

Connor McGovern is a free agent and it's likely he'll push himself to a price that the Broncos won't be prepared to match, though the team has expressed an interest to re-sign him.

Top tier ($10M or more): Connor McGovern, Graham Glasgow

Second tier ($8M to $9M): Ted Karras, B.J. Finney

Third tier ($6M to $7M): Ben Garland

Value tier ($5M or less): A.Q. Shipley, Ryan Kalil

It's not hard to see why McGovern will hit the top tier — there's not much available after him and Glasgow. Matt Skura would make the list, but he's a restricted free agent and there's no way the Ravens give him anything less than a second-round tender. Karras and Finney might both cash in on a weak free-agent market, and the same could even happen with Garland.

Wide Receiver

Long story short, I don't see the Broncos being aggressive in the market for wide receivers. However, a street free agent like Paul Richardson could draw interest. Given that Richardson wasn't that productive with Washington, he'll likely have to take less money. Richardson earned $8M APY on his previous deal, so I would slot him into the $5M to $6M range.

Quarterback

The Broncos could be looking for a veteran to be the backup to Drew Lock. The backup quarterback money shouldn't see crazy money thrown around, so the Broncos shouldn't have to spend too much. Backup QBs are typically getting $3M to $4M per year, though a few might push for $5M.

Running Back

Any running back the Broncos bring in will have to take a low-cost deal. Most veteran running backs on cheap deals take $3M to $5M per year. The Broncos might be better off saving that money to pay Phillip Lindsay, then draft a running back to pair with him.

Tight End

I don't expect the Broncos to look at any tight ends in free agency. They'll stick with what they have for the time being and, if they think the depth can be improved, focus on the draft for that.

Edge Rusher

The Broncos will only be looking for depth here. If the Broncos take the time to look, they can probably find a veteran for depth at no more than $3M.

It's not hard to figure out that, if the Broncos intend to buy a defense, they won't always be in a position to go cheap, though they could find value at some positions. They might have better luck finding value among interior defenders, given that so many are hitting free agency.

They have a chance at doing that at off-ball linebacker and a few options might be there at cornerback. But this should give you an idea about what you could expect pay-wise when it comes to the free agents on the Broncos' radar.

For anyone who has their sights set on the top-tier talent, be prepared to pay for the privilege.

Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports and @MileHighHuddle.

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