What's the Cost to Extend Garett Bolles If He Proves Himself?

Earlier this offseason, the Denver Broncos declined the fifth-year option for left tackle Garett Bolles, a 2017 first-round pick. In doing so, they opted not to pay him an injury-only guaranteed salary of about $11M.

Some questioned at the time why the Broncos would do this, given how high the offensive tackle market can get. My argument was that the Broncos likely declined it because they wanted to see Bolles prove himself and, if he did, he would be the only player who would be a priority to extend.

It's true that an extension would pay Bolles more than $11M in 2021. But as I also argued, if he's extended, it's a matter of either paying Bolles a higher salary in 2021 or, if his option had been exercised, likely paying more in 2022 if he played well in the 2020 and 2021 seasons.

So how much could the Broncos be looking at paying Bolles or somebody else in 2021? Let's look at the offensive tackle market now and where it could be in the future.

The Current Situation

Laremy Tunsil is the highest-paid offensive tackle in the NFL. However, I suspect most teams will see his contract as an anomaly in some aspects, given that the Texans have overpaid for multiple players this offseason. Tunsil is averaging $22M per year on his three-year extension, with $40M in full guarantees.

The full guarantees might be justified, given that Taylor Lewan got $34M in full guarantees when the Titans extended him a couple of seasons ago, and that the Giants paid Nate Solder $34.8M in full guarantees when he signed as a free agent a few years back. However, the average salary per year for each is much lower (Solder at $15.5M, Lewan at $16M).

For more recent extensions, the Colts kept Anthony Castonzo on a two-year deal that pays him $16.5M APY with $17M fully guarnateed, while the Cardinals gave DJ Humphries a three-year extension for $14.75M APY with $29M in full guarantees.

Again, I wouldn't expect offensive tackles in 2021 to surpass Tunsil in every aspect, but it wouldn't surprise me if one or more match or exceed Tunsil's full guarantees.

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The 2021 Free Agent Field

We have a long ways to go before free agency gets underway in 2021, but we can look ahead to see the players who have expiring contracts and get an idea about who is likely to cash in, whether with their current teams or another team.

The Ravens' Ronnie Stanley is arguably the best of these players, but if he plays at a high level in 2020, it won't surprise me if the Ravens franchise him, if not extend him first (and, yes, the Ravens should have the cap space to do that).

Then there's Taylor Decker of the Lions and Dion Dawkins of the Bills, who are coming off quality seasons in 2019. If they play well again in 2020, both could be either tagged or extended.

I can see Stanley's agent trying to match what Tunsil got in all aspects and, while I'm not sure he will, I could easily see Stanley surpass the $40M in full guarantees on a deal for at least four years. Decker and Dawkins could approach that mark, too.

There are a couple other notable names whose deals expire after 2020. David Bahktiari of the Packers will be 30 years old and will likely seek a deal exceeding that of Anthony Castonzo, should Bahktiari play well again. Alejandro Villaneuva of the Steelers continues to play well, but he'll be 33 in 2021, so he might not reach the levels others will.

The other notable name is Cam Robinson, who has struggled most of his career. I can't see Robinson cashing in on a big contract, even if other offensive tackles quickly sign with teams.

A quick check at right tackle shows there aren't a lot of top players who will be available. Taylor Moton of the Panthers will be 27 in 2021, but he's not an elite player, and Matt Feiler of the Steelers has been solid, but he'll be 29 years old. Other right tackles are older or not that good, so I don't see any right tackles in line for deals that re-set the market.

Where Does That Leave the Broncos?

Let's start with Garett Bolles. I suspect if Bolles plays well in 2020 and the Broncos want to extend him, the comparison is going to be DJ Humphries. The Cardinals left tackle has played well at times but has missed a lot of games because of injury. Bolles has stayed healthy most of his career, but that's countered by the penalties he's drawn.

Also, Bolles will be 29 years old, so the Broncos might be concerned about how long he can keep his level of play going, assuming he improves in 2020. So if Bolles proves worthy of an extension, a three-year deal makes sense, in which he gets more than what Humphries got in full guarantees and likely gets more in APY salary.

What if Bolles doesn't earn that extension? We can consider Elijah Wilkinson, should he manage to take the starting job and play well. With Wilkinson, though, if he shows promise as a starter at left tackle, he's a better candidate for a "prove it" — or if you prefer, "keep proving it" — deal that's no more than one year. Because Wilkinson will be 26 in 2021, another one-year deal means he still has a chance to get a bigger contract if he can put two quality seasons together.

There's also Ja'Wuan James, who needs to show he can stay healthy in 2020 or the Broncos might be prepared to cut bait with him. However, if he stays healthy and plays well, keeping him does not prevent the Broncos from signing a left tackle, because the Broncos will have the cap space available to make it work. They will definitely be in position to move on from James in 2022 because, while he has $5M in injury-only guaranteed salary for 2021, he has no guaranteed money in 2022.

Should neither Bolles nor Wilkinson prove worthy of an extension, the Broncos might opt to go with a short-term solution and then look to the 2021 Draft, unless they are fortunate to land a free agent who can be a long-term starter. I seriously doubt Ronnie Stanley hits the open market and it's not likely Taylor Decker or Dion Dawkins does, but on the latter two, it's possible those teams want to commit money elsewhere.

Though John Elway usually doesn't chase after older players in free agency (though there are exceptions, such as DeMarcus Ware and Kareem Jackson), he might be willing to look at David Bahktiari if the Packers don't extend him. Otherwise, Alejandro Villanueva becomes the guy Broncos fan talk up, given his past connections with offensive line coach Mike Munchak.

Bottom Line

The Broncos should have the cap space to add a left tackle, whether it's extending a current player or adding one from another team. That's not really going to be an issue.

The question, of course, is how much more the Broncos pay beyond what Bolles would have made on the fifth-year option. Again, the good news is the Broncos don't have a lot of players that are "must extend" for 2021, and I imagine that's one reason why the Broncos were comfortable with declining Bolles' option.

Regardless, I don't think the Broncos will have to go crazy with the money in acquiring a left tackle in free agency. Teams aren't likely to view Laremy Tunsil as the market standard in every aspect. Fully guaranteed money is one thing, but otherwise, I'm not convinced we're going to see offensive tackles go for $23M APY or more next season.

Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports and @MileHighHuddle.

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