Predicting the Fate of Each Broncos Restricted Free Agent

The Broncos have a grip of restricted free agents. How will the fresh perspective of GM George Paton impact each RFA?

The Denver Broncos have seven players who will be restricted free agents, but not all of them are going to get tendered.

While RFA tenders can be a useful way to retain players at a low cost, relative to veterans who usually get larger contracts, that by no means guarantees the Broncos will keep them all under a tender, even at the lowest level.

There are three levels of RFA tenders: first-round, second-round, and original-round (the last one is sometimes called 'right of first refusal'). Any player who gets an RFA tender is free to negotiate with other teams about long-term deals.

First- and second-round tenders are straightforward: Players who would get that tender, and then are signed to offer sheets by other teams, would end up netting that draft pick as compensation back to the Broncos. Meanwhile the original-round tender nets the pick that matches the round in which the player was drafted — and if that player was undrafted, there is no draft pick in return.

The original-round tender might confuse people, because while it can be applied to undrafted players, it may also get applied to a drafted player who was waived before his draft pick contract expired, then signed with another team after clearing waivers or returned to the team who waived him on a new contract.

Another possibility is that the player was injured when he was drafted, placed on the physically unable to perform list, then moved to injured reserve. In such cases, those players never accrue a season and, thus, become RFAs once they accrue three seasons.

However, the cost to tender such players, even at levels below what veterans typically make, could still come in at more than the player is actually worth. Over the Cap estimates that first-round tenders will be about $4.8M, second-round tenders will be about $3.4M, and original-round tenders will be about $2.2M. The amounts for each tender remain to be seen, but the NFL will set those amounts before the new league year begins in March.

Finally, if teams choose not to tender RFAs, those players aren't eligible for the compensatory pick formula. Therefore, if a team wants to get a pick for a player, it needs to tender them at no less than the second-round level.

By doing so, the team may give permission for the player to seek a trade, then get draft pick compensation that way. Of course, teams could just let other teams sign the player to an offer sheet, but since the introduction of the rookie pay scale, no team has ever signed away a player who got the first- or second-round tender (though a couple of original-round tendered players who were drafted, were signed to offer sheets that weren't matched).

With all of this said, what is going to happen to those Broncos who are restricted free agents? Here's what to expect.

Phillip Lindsay, RB

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Lindsay broke out as a rookie, rushing for 1,000 yards before missing the final game of his first season with a wrist injury. He returned the following season and had another 1,000-yard campaign. However, his 2020 season was marred by injuries.

Lindsay isn't a candidate for a long-term deal at this point, but he's worth keeping on the second-round tender. For those who think he should be traded, that's certainly an option, but you want a second-round tender to ensure you get something in return.

The other option is to keep him, though he'll need to show he can stay healthy, keep improving as a pass catcher and, in particular, improve in pass protection to be a candidate for a new contract. Otherwise, if he stays in 2021, the Broncos will let him walk after the season.

Alexander Johnson, LB

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Johnson has played well in Vic Fangio's defense for the past two seasons, but he will turn 30 this year. That begs the question: Do the Broncos want to keep him for the long term — or even for 2021?

Regardless of what the Broncos think of Johnson's long-term future with the team, I expect he will get the second-round tender. A trade is a possibility, but if he's dealt, the Broncos will need to get another off-ball linebacker, most likely through the draft.

If the Broncos keep Johnson for 2021, the most likely scenario is they will let him play out the tender for 2021, then determine after the season if he has enough left to warrant an extension. If not, he'll hit free agency and then be eligible for the comp pick formula.

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Tim Patrick, WR

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Patrick stepped up big time this season after Courtland Sutton was lost for the season to an ACL injury. Keeping Patrick on the second-round tender seems like a wise move, but does that mean he should be retained for depth at a price that's more than you would typically pay for depth?

There are those who worry about Sutton's health, but wide receivers throughout the NFL have shown they can come back from serious injuries and still produce, especially when they are young. There's no better example than Demaryius Thomas, who tore his Achilles after his rookie season, but went on to become one of the most productive receivers in Broncos history.

Patrick is a top candidate to get the second-round tender, then permission to seek a trade. The Broncos can always draft a receiver for depth. Patrick certainly played well in 2020, but he'll be 28 years old and he's not somebody who fits the Broncos' long-term plans. They should trade him while his value is high.

Jake Butt, TE

Butt is a former fifth-round pick, but he spent the bulk of his rookie season on the PUP list because of an injury suffered while in college. Because that wasn't an injury that happened after he was drafted, when he moved from the PUP list to IR, he didn't accrue a season.

Thus, an original-round tender means a team who signs Butt to an offer sheet has to give up a fifth-round pick as compensation. However, between the expected price tag for the tender, and that it's not likely teams will sign Butt to an offer sheet, he's not likely to get tendered.

A one-year deal is always an option and Butt could compete with Nick Vannett for the blocking tight end job, but otherwise, he may not be back with the Broncos.

Troy Fumagalli, TE

The Broncos waived Fumagalli, a former fifth-round pick, after the 2020 training camp. He was then added to the practice squad during the season, then called up for several games.

Those games allowed Fumagalli to accrue a season and, because he was waived from his draft pick contract, he's a restricted free agent and would net a fifth-round pick if given the original-round tender, then signed to an offer sheet the Broncos don't match.

As with Butt, the cost of the tender plus the unlikelihood that he would get signed to an offer sheet, means he won't be tendered, but a one-year deal and a chance to compete for the starting job is a possibility.

Austin Calitro, LB

The Broncos had interest in Calitro before last season, but never could claim him off waivers, only to finally make a deal with the Bengals to acquire him in exchange for defensive lineman Christian Covington.

Calitro mostly played special teams this past season, which is what he's been primarily utilized for throughout his career. He's not somebody the Broncos will tender, because even the original-round tender is too much for a player whose best asset is special teams play.

Calitro could be a candidate for a one-year deal if the Broncos don't bring back Joseph Jones, who also primarily played special teams.

Kevin Toliver II, CB

Toliver spent two seasons with the Chicago Bears before being waived and was added to the Broncos practice squad back in September. Because of injuries to other players, he was promoted to the active roster in November.

His time on the active roster didn't last, because he suffered a torn ACL in December, after being active for just two games, and his season was over.

Toliver isn't going to be tendered and, because the injury happened late in the season, he's not going to get a one-year deal from the Broncos.

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