Broncos Select Michigan Edge Kwity Paye at Pick 9 in Latest PFF Mock Draft

Pro Football Focus forecasts the Broncos taking an edge rusher in the first round but would this talented kid out of Michigan be a fit in Denver?

Nothing stokes the opinion of fans quite like the direction their team should go in the first round of NFL draft. Some will cry out for their team’s most obvious pressing need, (which for the Denver Broncos is pretty obviously cornerback), while others will pound the table for the same position year-after-year in the hopes that it will cure a long perceived roster weakness.

Endless mock drafts with countless scenarios will fill the interwebs over the next 67 days until the Jacksonville Jaguars are officially on the clock to kick off the 2021 draft. Where will George Paton and the Broncos go with the No. 9 overall selection? A trade up? A trade down? 

Will the Broncos, by then, have used that selection and many others to trade for disgruntled Houston QB Deshaun Watson? There are a stupefying number of realities that could come to pass between now and when Denver is ready to pick.

Limiting oneself to a singular position in the first round is always an exercise in ignorance. When there are individual athletes, not generic prospects in a vacuum, the board itself often dictates the direction of a team’s selection in the first round. 

Each year offers its own class of players and should be evaluated as such. Don’t believe me? Just look at the difference between the first round of the 2011 draft vs that of its 2013 counterpart. It’s a unique crop of players each year to parse through and select.

Another exercise in folly is the limited scope of draft picks and positional needs by fans. Given it typically takes two to three years for a draft pick to 'come of age' and provide stable play, drafting a rookie and expecting any perceived roster weakness to be 'fixed' is better in theory than in reality. 

Given that timeline, it makes more sense to draft talented prospects before a hole opens up, especially at positions of value such as offensive tackle, cornerback, and edge rusher.

The Broncos obviously have needs at cornerback and offensive tackle (because can anyone truly depend on Ja’Wuan James after hardly playing the last two seasons?), but a rather under-appreciated need is that of edge rusher.

Austin Gayle of Pro Football Focus apparently understands the Broncos’ long-term need at edge rusher and has the team selecting one at No. 9 overall in his latest mock draft.

9. Denver Broncos: Edge, Kwity Paye, Michigan

Paye is a rare athlete that won’t last deep into the first round if he does test as well as expected at the 2021 NFL Scouting Combine. He also has the fourth-best PFF pass-rush win rate (26%) of any Power 5 edge defender in the country. Denver faces some levels of uncertainty at edge defender, with Von Miller (31) coming off a severe ankle injury and currently under criminal investigation.

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The 2021 draft class does not have an obvious blue-chip edge rusher. There is no Myles Garrett, Chase Young, Nick Bosa, Joey Bosa, or Bradley Chubb that warrant a top-5 selection. Given that, which edge rusher is ranked No. 1 on teams' board will likely vary club-to-club and analyst-to-analyst across the league.

Measurables

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Paye has a chance to be the first edge off the board. Built more like Chubb than Miller, Paye is a power rusher that offers some inside/outside versatility and can be employed in twists and stunts to generate pass rush from different alignments across a defensive front.

Listed at 6-foot-4 and approximately 270 pounds, he has the prototypical size of a 4-3 edge rusher. Paye does not possess the obvious burst off the line of scrimmage like a Miller (granted, not many have ever had burst like Von) but that doesn’t mean Paye isn’t a freak of an athlete.

Listed as Bruce Feldman’s No. 1 freak athlete in his renowned list, Paye has incredible athletic testing numbers (purportedly) including a 4.57-second 40-yard dash, a 34-inch vertical, while boasting 30 reps on the bench press, a 4.15-second 20-yard shuttle, and a mind-bending 6.37-second 3-cone drill. All these times would have put Paye at or near the top against all edges and defensive linemen who competed at the 2020 NFL Combine.

Question of Fit

Paye is also renowned for his maturity and determination on the field. A refugee whose family fled from Liberia during the Liberian Blood Diamond War, has had to deal with diversity to get to where he is today. He is very likely to make the most of his opportunity in the NFL.

Where Paye ‘fits’ in the Broncos’ defense is a question. Given how historically Vic Fangio has liked to deploy his edge rusher in coverage more than many defensive schemers, Paye really isn’t the type of edge that projects as a speed rusher with the ability to drop into coverage. 

Fangio may be able to maximize Paye with some 3 and 4-technique looks, but does Paye possess the length to play the interior? Or, rather, is he pigeonholed to playing a more classic 7-technique? That remains to be seen.

Future Needs

Chubb is coming off of a really good and underrated season given how often he was doubled and how frequently he won his pass rush reps in 2020. However, with an impending contract situation and the fact that he's already suffered two major knee injuries in his playing career, Denver may need to add talent at edge to hedge for the roster and to leverage against contract negotiations. 

Malik Reed had a phenomenal season for a former college free agent but is he a true starter? Or is he just a great finesse edge rusher that can play in sub-packages?

Why should Denver consider edge rusher early regardless of Von Miller’s contract situation?

I keep seeing people post raw stats from the #Broncos’ edges this year without much situational context so here’s a great graph to show edges this season. pic.twitter.com/fFwNRckJiQ

— Nick Kendell 🏔 (@NickKendellMHH) February 9, 2021

Elephant in the Room: Von Miller

Also, something that has to be discussed is Miller. Entering his age-32 season, coming off of a significant injury, and sporting a contract that is hard to swallow given the pandemic-reduced salary cap in 2021, Denver may have to make a hard decision on arguably the team’s best defensive of all-time. 

Possessing a $22.225 million cap hit next season (if retained), moving on from Miller would come with $18 million in cap relief with just $4.225M in dead cap. Denver may be in a situation where if Miller doesn’t agree to a renegotiated contract via extension and restructure, his tenure in the Orange and Blue may be over.

Bottom Line

No one truly knows which way Paton and the Broncos will go at pick 9. While cornerback seems the most likely pick, and there will be scores of fans calling for a quarterback, a tackle, and a linebacker, don't discount edge rusher. In his introductory press conference, Paton talked about how much he values the trenches.

Having numerous talented edges to harass quarterbacks may be the only way to slow down the high-octane passing attacks now in the AFC West. Is Paye the type of edge Denver is looking for on defense? 

What role would fit Paye best in the NFL? Can he become a power edge rusher with some interior pass rush ability such as Melvin Ingram or Brandon Graham? Or will he become a pass rusher without a true home and a 'tweener' such as Solomon Thomas? 

Time will tell but if Paton is looking for pass rush help to help bolster Fangio’s defense, Paye is one of the more talented options to consider at pick 9.

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Follow Nick on Twitter @NickKendellMHH.

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