Examining Broncos GM George Paton's Draft & Free-Agent Approach

Part of the process of putting together a quality NFL team is how a general manager utilizes the draft and free agency to build the roster. Denver Broncos fans know that previous GM John Elway had a mixed bag when it came to such acquisitions.

The first half of Elway’s tenure was arguably filled with more hits than misses, ranging from Von Miller in the draft to Emmanuel Sanders in free agency. In the latter half, though, the misses became bigger and more noticeable, such as the drafting of Paxton Lynch and the signing of Ja’Wuan James.

George Paton is entering just the second year of his GM tenure in Denver, so we don’t have enough to judge him yet. However, it may be fair to say that his draft results have been promising, while perhaps some of his free-agent signings haven’t panned out as expected.

However, it’s important to examine the process Paton has utilized thus far to understand what he may consider when looking at draft picks and free agents.

A Quick Look at Elway’s Approach

First, to touch upon Elway for a moment, he was fortunate to sign Peyton Manning in free agency, which allowed him to get the most out of players he drafted in his first two years with the team, plus attract some quality free agents at reasonable prices.

However, after Manning retired, Elway had to adjust his philosophies. He had been taking chances on draft prospects who were raw in terms of development but were athletic. He also had more difficulty finding value in free agency, perhaps because he didn’t have the proven veteran QB, and perhaps he may have become too comfortable with the idea that he could just convince any player to take a below-market deal.

Whatever the reasons, the Broncos needed to shift their team-building philosophy after Manning retired. Elway did that in the draft in 2018, when he focused less on athletic players who needed a lot of development and instead looked for players with talent and leadership skills.

That process didn’t always get the best results, but it did result in a couple of players who have become important parts of the current roster. Courtland Sutton, a 2018 pick, got extended last season, and Dre’Mont Jones, a 2019 pick, is a current extension candidate.

But the Broncos still had work to do with their team-building philosophy. That’s when Paton came along, and we could see some elements of that shift.

Paton in Free Agency

When it came to free agency, Paton did take some chances when it came to multi-year deals, but in other cases, he focused on shorter deals in which there would be fewer sunk costs if things didn’t work out.

Ronald Darby, for example, was a talented player with an injury history. Paton signed him to a three-year deal for $30 million with $20M fully guaranteed.

Paton got essentially what might have been expected: a player who does good things when he’s on the field, but his injury history has come into play. The saving grace is that Darby has no guaranteed money in 2023, so Paton has the option to either renegotiate his deal or just release Darby.

Still, that’s one free-agent signing that some fans might not believe has panned out as expected. Even with Darby's quality play when healthy, some will expect more return on a $20M investment.

However, the one-year deals Paton has given to multiple players aren’t that bad. Kyle Fuller was added in 2021 primarily because of his familiarity with Vic Fangio. Melvin Gordon was brought back this year because the Broncos wanted a veteran running back in the mix.

And then there’s Kareem Jackson, whose 2021 option was declined by Paton. Jackson has returned twice on one-year deals which paid him much less.

Finally, Broncos fans have been frustrated with right tackle play, but Paton didn’t invest a ton of money into one player for a quick fix. Billy Turner, Tom Compton, and Calvin Anderson all took one-year deals, indicating Paton didn’t see any of them as long-term solutions.

For the most part, Paton has limited his long-term commitments in free agency to a handful of players, while keeping the rest on one- or two-year deals. Thus far, he seems to view free agency as a place to find a couple of players who might be part of the long-term picture, but otherwise, he prefers to add players who fill in for the time being and minimize risk while doing so.

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Paton’s Utilization of the Draft

When it comes to his first two drafts, Paton seems to be more inclined to take the player who he, his coaches, and his scouts think is the best player available at that point. He hasn’t ignored needs, but he hasn’t necessarily emphasized them.

Paton took Patrick Surtain II in 2021 in the first round when Broncos fans may have wanted a quarterback. He took Javonte Williams in the second round when some fans may have preferred a right tackle.

Paton's third-round picks, after a trade down, went to offensive guard Quinn Meinerz and linebacker Baron Browning — the latter of whom filled a need some fans pushed (inside linebacker), but has since been converted to edge rusher.

In 2022, Paton again went past offensive tackles and off-ball linebackers and went with the likes of edge rusher Nik Bonitto and tight end Greg Dulcich. While it’s still early to judge how every draft pick will turn out, there is plenty to like about Surtain, Browning, Meinerz, and Dulcich.

There’s also Caden Sterns, a 2021 fifth-round pick who was playing well at safety prior to a hip injury, and Damarri Mathis, a 2022 fourth-round pick who has struggled at cornerback but has shown flashes that give hope he will improve.

And while Bonitto needs to improve his run defense, he has shown what he can bring to the pass rush. Williams played well before his injury, though questions remain about how soon he’ll return and whether he’ll be the same player.

Still, there’s reason to believe that some of Paton’s early draft picks will turn into players worth long-term deals, as long as they continue to show growth.

Why Going 'All-in, All the Time' Wasn’t Advisable

There were some Broncos fans who wanted Paton to go 'all-in' beyond the price paid to acquire quarterback Russell Wilson. The thinking was that the Broncos needed to do so because the window to win a Super Bowl with Wilson might close quickly.

Others reasoned that, because the Los Angeles Rams went 'all-in' on Matthew Stafford and then decided to keep pushing against the cap after a Super Bowl win, the Broncos needed to do the same.

Instead, Paton went in a different direction. He continued to manage the cap as Elway did, utilizing restructures if necessary but making sure he had enough space available to get the team through the season, with the possibility to carry it over for the next season.

That was actually the smarter strategy, and it’s not just because things haven’t gone as expected under Wilson and the Paton-hired head coach Nathaniel Hackett. It’s because the Broncos were coming off a season in which they missed the playoffs, and, therefore, couldn’t behave as though they were instantly a Super Bowl contender because of the Wilson trade.

The Rams did win a Super Bowl, but because they did, they could afford to take a chance and see whether they could repeat. But this season, the Rams have struggled, so in 2023, they will need to reassess their position rather than pushing cap hits down the road.

Jason Fitzgerald at Over the Cap has made this point before: cap space may mean nothing in the short term, but in the long term, it does. You might be able to get away with kicking the cap can down the road in one season, but do it too many seasons, and it catches up with you.

Just look at the New Orleans Saints, who might have been contenders for the No. 7 playoff spot in the NFC, but that wasn’t enough to justify pushing cap hits further down the road and trading away picks as if they would be the final pieces of the puzzle.

Now the Saints are 3-6 and aren’t even close to that No. 7 playoff spot. They are in a terrible cap situation next season and have no first-round pick, unless Sean Payton decides he wants to return and coach elsewhere.

Back to the Broncos.

Regardless of how things turned out for Wilson and Hackett, Paton did the right thing by hedging his bets with the Broncos' cap situation. It ensured that Paton could be in a position to keep improving the team via free agency as needed.

Furthermore, the Bradley Chubb trade meant a quality player is no longer with the team, but the draft capital received will be useful, particularly after the Broncos gave up a pair of high 2023 draft picks in the Wilson trade.

Bottom Line

Broncos fans shouldn’t despair that not everything got resolved in 2022. And regardless of how Wilson or Hackett fare after the bye, fans should know that there is hope that Paton can further improve the team this offseason.

The Broncos will have options with the likes of Darby, Graham Glasgow, and Mike Purcell after the season. All three could be asked to renegotiate deals or be released. The Broncos might even approach Garett Bolles about a renegotiation, though a release might not be what they want to do right away.

The potential pool of free-agent offensive linemen should be better than it was in 2022, particularly at right tackle. Multiple teams have to make decisions about other players on their roster — and in some cases, they are other offensive linemen up for extensions. That could mean the Broncos have a better chance of finding a player worth a long-term deal.

Finally, Paton has the chance to improve the team through the draft. It remains to be seen where the Broncos' first-round pick — acquired through the Miami Dolphins via the San Francisco 49ers — falls in the draft order. But It could give Paton the possibility of trading down or finding a player who might contribute sooner than later.

And as much as the Broncos haven’t lived up to the lofty expectations set prior to the season, the Broncos at least didn’t mortgage their entire future. Though they will have to deal with the Wilson extension for a while, the Broncos have flexibility otherwise.

The key is to understand Paton’s approach to the draft and free agency and to hope that he recognizes mistakes and evaluates accordingly. Like any GM, he won’t get it right every single time, but he does need to learn from moves that didn’t pan out.

We’ll know more about where the Broncos stand after the remaining nine games — and with any luck, the team will fare better overall than prior to the bye week. And whatever happens, Paton should have a better idea about what needs to be addressed for 2023.

Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports.

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