Oddsmakers Give Drew Lock 60% Chance to Return as Broncos' Starting QB in 2021

The topic predominating the conversation in Broncos Country is whether or not Drew Lock will be back in 2021. Well, we know he's going to be with the Denver Broncos again — the question is, will Lock be given the opportunity to be the team's 'understood' quarterback again?

Last offseason, GM John Elway went all-in on Lock, building the nest around him by selecting two wideouts in consecutive rounds to open the draft, as well as Lock's Missouri tight end Albert Okwuegbunam on Day 2, as well as paying Graham Glasgow to man right guard and signing Melvin Gordon to tote the rock and catch passes out of the backfield.

The results? Less than inspiring but that's often how it goes for a young quarterback with a young supporting cast finding his way in the NFL, to say nothing of how a pandemic-influenced offseason might further hinder his development.

Often times, Vegas has the answer. What do the oddsmakers say about Lock's chances of reprising his role as 'The Guy' under center for the Broncos next year?

According to SportsBetting.com, Lock has a 60% chance at taking the first snap from under center in Week 1 of next season.

Drew Lock takes Broncos first snap in Week 1 of 2021 reg. season
Yes -150
No +110
(Odds imply 60.0% chance Lock will return as quarterback.)

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Honestly, those odds are a little lower than I would have given but in a league whose acronym often means 'Not For Long', anything can happen at any time. The Broncos traded up in the 2019 draft to take Lock at pick No. 42.

He has since started 17 games, going 8-9 as a starter. Keep in mind, in one of those 17 starts, Lock only played a few minutes into the first quarter before injuring his shoulder. So even with 17 starts under his belt, his body of work is that of a 16-game sample.

The numbers? 59 completion percentage with 3,614 passing yards, 21 touchdowns to 18 interceptions. He's also thrown in 225 rushing yards with three scores on the ground, all of which have come in 2020.

Removing the Week 2 loss at Pittsburgh in which Lock didn't make it through a quarter, he'd be an even 8-8 as a starter completing his 'rookie window', if you will. If he was a first-round pick, most fans might not be pleased with a .500 record but considering the scope of a QB's development, they'd at least be encouraged and feeling relatively confident that the best is yet to come.

Unfortunately for Lock, he's not a former first-rounder and his tenure as the Broncos' QB comes on the tail-end of an unprecedented reign of losing. Lock shares no complicity in Denver's botched Paxton Lynch, Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler, Case Keenum, or Joe Flacco decisions at quarterback, but he does have to shoulder the residual effects those players left on the team, the fanbase, and the media.

The view from outside the building is oftentimes vastly different than the internal opinion. My guess is, the Broncos view Lock quite differently than the majority of fans calling for the team to draft a replacement in April, or the media who've crucified the kid for the audacity of putting them through a trial-and-error NFL learning curve.

Maybe the odds are as low as 60% that Lock returns as the starter. I'd put it closer to a 75% likelihood, but then again, my view from the outside looking in could be wildly off-target compared to that of Elway, Vic Fangio, or Pat Shurmur.

Let's remember, though, the last thing Elway said about Lock is that the Broncos have "like what they've seen from Drew", while Fangio said on Monday, "I haven't lost my enthusiasm for Drew at all."

Could they be meaningless platitudes? Sure. But I'm not inclined to give Elway or Fangio that much credit when it comes to football espionage.

Follow Chad on Twitter @ChadNJensen and @MileHighHuddle.