Oddsmakers Give Broncos 14% Chance of Making the Playoffs

The Broncos dug themselves a hole by starting 0-3 this year. What are the odds of making the playoffs?

In the NFL, a team can't start 0-3 and expect to have a viable shot at making the playoffs. However, the 1-3 Denver Broncos, despite all of the personnel losses caused by the injury bug, at least have a fighting chance. 

According to FiveThirtyEight.com, the Broncos have a 14% chance at making the playoffs and are predicted to finish 6-10 this season. 

The 1-3 #Broncos have a 14% chance of making the playoffs, per @FiveThirtyEight, which predicts a 6-10 finish for Denver.

— Zack Kelberman (@KelbermanNFL) October 4, 2020

Broncos Country is smart enough to recognize the writing on the wall. But let's, just for a moment, try to view that 14% chance through a glass-half-full lens. 

What are some reasons to believe the Broncos could turn it around this year and earn a postseason berth? 

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Lock is Coming Back

The Broncos could get starting quarterback Drew Lock back as soon as this next game vs. the New England Patriots. At worst, circle Week 6 vs. Miami as Lock's return game. 

Last year, Lock spent 13 weeks in exile on injured reserve and went, literally, from the training table to the starting lineup in a matter of hours. Inserting him into the lineup had a galvanizing effect on the Broncos, who went on to play their best football of the season with him under center, finishing 4-1. 

Lock went down in Week 2 with an injury to his throwing shoulder. While it might be too much to expect him to completely turn around the Broncos' fortunes again this season, if he's the QB the team hopes he is, being that tide that raises all ships is not outside the bounds of the possible. 

The Broncos will also get back the injured likes of No. 1 cornerback A.J. Bouye, defensive linemen Dre'Mont Jones and DeMarcus Walker, co-starting running back Phillip Lindsay, and No. 1 tight end Noah Fant. That quintet of players represents quite the infusion of talent for this team, notwithstanding the season-long loss of Pro Bowlers like Von Miller, Courtland Sutton, and Jurrell Casey. 

An Extra Playoff Spot

This year, each Conference will send seven teams to the playoffs. That means there's an extra Wildcard spot open for the taking. 

Last year, despite starting the season 3-8, the Broncos almost played their way back into the playoff hunt when Lock returned, finishing 7-9. If one or two games fell Denver's way in the closing minutes, that team could have made the playoffs. 

Thus it goes in the NFL, though. The fortune of teams rises and falls via inches. Last year, the Broncos died nine deaths by inches, the irony of which — considering Vic Fangio's philosophy — is striking. 

But we don't yet know yet how that seventh playoff spot will affect the AFC math when the dust finally settles. For now, all Denver can do is keep its focus on a game-by-game basis. However, the Broncos aren't out of it until the math eliminates them. 

Fangio & the Law of Momentum

In Fangio's maiden season as head coach, the Broncos started off slow but eventually galvanized as he weathered the trial-and-error storm and figured things out. While there's no guarantee that history will repeat in 2020, the Broncos' slow start and Fangio's early faux pas serve as two striking similarities this year. 

The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. In that vein, I'd be surprised if the Broncos don't become a better, sharper, and more competitive squad as the season marches on and once Lock comes back. 

Fangio's momentum built slowly last year and ultimately didn't coalesce soon enough to forestall a sub-.500 season. The Broncos didn't get their first win until Week 5 last year, while the team broke the ice in Week 4 this year. Perhaps that spark of momentum, which comes a week earlier this time around, is a wave Fangio and company can ride with more alacrity in 2020. 

Slightly Easier Second-Half Schedule

The first half of the 2020 schedule is a tough one for the Broncos, which has already included QB matchups with a couple of future Hall-of-Famers (Roethlisberger and Brady) as well as a date with Patrick Mahomes in Week 7. However, the schedule lightens up somewhat coming out of the Week 8 bye. 

There are a trio of tough matchups to fear, including Drew Brees in Week 12, Mahomes again in Week 13, and Josh Allen in Week 15. But the Broncos also draw a rookie QB twice (Justin Herbert/Chargers) as well as the likes of Matt Ryan, Derek Carr (twice), and Teddy Bridgewater in the second half of the season. 

Weeks 9-17 are shaping up as significantly lighter obstacles than what the Broncos will face have faced Weeks 1-7. 

Follow Chad on Twitter @ChadNJensen and @MileHighHuddle.