PFF Projects Broncos' Best & Worst-Case Scenarios at QB for 2022

Would this really be the worst-case scenario for Denver?

The 2022 offseason could play out in many different ways for the Denver Broncos. Entering GM George Paton’s second year in charge of the roster and the first season with Nathaniel Hackett as the head coach, how the Broncos will be sculpted through free agency and NFL draft period will be critical to this team’s chances in the AFC West — both in the immediate and long-term for the franchise.

While there are countless possibilities as to what Paton does this offseason, Pro Football Focus has drawn a line in the sand as far as what would be the best and worst cases for the Broncos this offseason. 

The first, as one probably could have guessed, was the Broncos obtaining the reigning back-to-back MVP Aaron Rodgers. Not only does PFF think landing Rodgers alone would be the best-case scenario for Denver but specifically, the ideal scenario is one where “Rodgers forces his way to Mile High and Davante Adams follows.”

A package that would bring not only Rodgers to Denver, but also his long-time Green Bay Packers teammate in Adams, would be a costly move for the Broncos without a doubt. Considering Denver already has a lot of pass-catching mouths to feed in Denver like Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, Jerry Jeudy, and Noah Fant, any trade that would land Rodgers and Adams probably would include sending back one of Denver’s current wideouts on top of first and second-round draft picks over the next three years. 

Why trade for Adams on top of Rodgers when Denver already has a lot of weapons? While the pass-catchers Denver has could be great with Rodgers, the simple fact is that Adams is already elite and one of the top three receivers in the NFL. 

As PFF put it: 

“Rodgers would undoubtedly put the Broncos into contention, and the addition of star wide receiver would only help that cause.”

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Given Rodgers’ age and the window of contention that Denver would have with him under center, bringing in a receiver who already has chemistry with him, is already in his prime, and whose years of elite play match Rodgers’, makes a lot of sense. Windows of contention in the NFL are historically not sustainable and can be brief and fleeting. 

Just as the Los Angeles Rams went 'all-in' this year with Matthew Stafford, if the Broncos land Rodgers, they should also push the chips to the center of the table to win a Super Bowl over the next three seasons. Bringing Adams along with Rodgers would increase the probability of Denver winning it all.

PFF's worst-case scenario states that Denver going with Drew Lock as its QB1 in 2022 would be a bad outcome. 

“If this dream scenario (Rodgers and Adams to Denver) doesn’t come to fruition, Denver is looking at Drew Lock versus a rookie for the QB1 job this fall, putting the team a ways away from being a contender.”

While Lock being the No. 1 quarterback in Denver in 2022 is not likely a scenario that ends with the Broncos hoisting a Lombardi Trophy, he's not the worst-case scenario in this writer’s opinion. Say what you will about the viability of Lock developing into a franchise quarterback when historical trends based on his performances to date make that an extremely unlikely outcome, but the worst-case scenario would be Denver pouring premium resources into the wrong quarterback.

Whether that be drafting a quarterback in the top-10 of the 2022 class, which appears to be the worst crop of quarterback prospects since E.J. Manuel and Geno Smith were the first two selected in the 2013 draft, or Denver trading multiple top-100 picks and then paying an extension to the likes of Jimmy Garoppolo or Kirk Cousins, Lock may not end up developing into a long-term solution, but he doesn’t take away flexibility to improve the room in the future like a swing and a miss on a top-10 pick at quarterback might do this season or trading capital and spending cap on mediocrity. 

Look no further than the moves made by the Carolina Panthers and the Indianapolis Colts last offseason as true worst-case scenarios. Not only did those two teams choose quarterbacks that both organizations are now looking to replace or move on from, but they also did so at the cost of losing massive resources and flexibility this season. 

Lock becoming the starter in 2022 doesn’t mean Denver is stuck with a previously costly acquisition at quarterback that results in Paton not having the flexibility to improve the position in the future if the right opportunity comes along. Any reality that has Lock will be the starter in 2022 also likely would mean that he beat out a veteran as the fourth-year QB in no way should be handed the starting position as he was in 2020 when his best competition in the room was… Jeff Driskel.

As a Day 2 selection and still an unknown entering Year 4 of his career, Lock should and will have to earn every starting rep he gets in the regular season going forward. Lock has already been given the second most starts of any Day 2 quarterback drafted in every year dating back to 2015, showing both how improbable a non-first-round quarterback is to hit based on recent draft history as well as how much opportunity he's been given compared to other quarterbacks drafted where he was selected.

How the offseason plays out remains to be seen and while one may or may not agree with PFF's best and worst-case scenarios for the Broncos, one thing from its article should be taken as a universal truth. Denver has to figure out the quarterback position and until it does, this is a team stuck in neutral.

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