PFF Throws Cold Water on Broncos' Projected Win Total in 2022

The NFL Draft has yet to arrive, but for the most part, the players that will impact how each team will perform in the 2022 season are set in place on their respective teams. There will be a few moves yet that will influence a team’s wins and losses next year, such as where veterans like Jadeveon Clowney or Tyrann Mathieu wind up signing.

There will also be a few rookies who make a major impact on playoff-caliber teams like Micah Parsons and Ja’Marr Chase did last season. Still, by and large, the players already rostered on their teams are the ones who will do a vast majority of their squads' heavy lifting in 2022.

With so much already set in place from a personnel perspective, now is the time to start looking over how different analysts feel each team will do in 2022. One such metric that projects which NFL teams should be considered the betting favorites in 2022 is Pro Football Focus’ season-long simulation.

With Russell Wilson in the fold, here's how PFF's simulation played out for the Denver Broncos.

Win Total: 10 (-125 | +105)

No team improved its 2022 outlook more than the Broncos, who landed the prize offseason acquisition, prying a frustrated Russell Wilson away from the Seattle Seahawks. The cost wasn’t overly prohibitive, as the Broncos were able to keep their young offensive skill position core intact.

The question becomes: How quickly can Denver's offense gel under new head coach Nathaniel Hackett’s scheme? Denver has little room for error playing in the toughest division in football. PFF’s simulation isn’t optimistic about the Broncos' outlook, projecting them to finish with less than 10 wins 58.09% of the time. Denver is a trendy team heading into the 2022 season, which is all the more reason to fade the team.

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Sitting with a projected win total of 10 with playoff odds of -125 |+105, the Broncos' odds sit as the AFC's fourth-highest for 2022 at this point in the offseason behind the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, and the Cincinnati Bengals. The Broncos are also one of three teams with 10 wins projected along with the Cincinnati Bengals and the Los Angeles Chargers.

However, Broncos Country should be somewhat wary of calling its bookie to smash the over on Denver’s 2022 win total just yet. The Broncos are very much set up to be one of the most volatile teams in the entire NFL this season.

A New, 'Aging' QB

The first reason the Broncos are a rather volatile team entering 2022 is the addition of a new quarterback. Some analysts believe that while Wilson is a very good quarterback, he is no longer elite and has a skill set that will not age as gracefully over time given Wilson’s avoidance of utilizing the middle of the field and the quick pass game that many proclaim is due to his height.

Wilson’s style of leaning on broken plays to create explosive passes isn’t one that will age as well as other advanced-years quarterbacks. It remains to be seen whether these naysayers are correct, but it's worth pondering.

A Green Coaching Staff

Wilson is entering a new team and organization with new teammates and a new coaching staff. Sure, the last two Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks in Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford also won a Lombardi the first year with their new teams, but it isn't a trend one should expect to occur three seasons in a row.

Those quarterbacks were also coming into situations where their new team’s coaching staff was well established. With Bruce Arians in Tampa Bay and Sean McVay in Los Angeles, the players surrounding the quarterback knew the scheme and coaches and what was expected of them within the offensive parameters.

This will not be the case in Denver as the Broncos go forward with first-time head coach in Hackett. Hackett appears to have done great work in Green Bay in his time with Aaron Rodgers, but what will his offense look like with Wilson?

Denver will likely utilize a lot of run/pass options and speed outs with Wilson, but the dagger routes are likely not going to be in the cards nearly as much. The ceiling is high for the Wilson-Hackett combo, but where is the floor?

Loss of the Defensive Czar

Finally and perhaps deservedly last is the loss of Vic Fangio. Fangio was obviously not a great head coach for the Broncos. He struggled with clock management, game flow, and the interpersonal relationships required to be a head coach in the NFL.

However, Fangio was without question an incredible defensive mind — just look at how teams across the entire NFL are replicating much of his match quarters, two-high safety shell with gap-and-a-half technique from the defensive line. Imitation is the highest form of flattery.

Denver made the right choice moving on from Fangio, but there should be zero shock if the Broncos’ defense regresses some this season under first-time defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero. Evero seems like an exceedingly smart individual, but the league is hard and stacked against defenses.

Most of the upper-tier defensive coordinators in the league are grizzled veteran types who have seen a thing or two during their years in the league. Evero doesn’t have the same level of experience yet and is also unknown how he will call games and sculpt what he wants to do defensively.

The Takeaway

Without question, the Broncos should be a much-improved team in 2022. Denver made the biggest improvement of any team at the most important position in football with the addition of Wilson.

Still, the Broncos’ 2022 win total should be seen as one of the largest floor/ceiling discussions in the entire NFL, given how many new and unknown variables are in place this season. Denver legitimately could win the Super Bowl in 2022.

The Broncos could also finish last in the AFC West. That and everything in between.

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