On Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham Jr., and what Really Matters
While Odell Beckham Jr. will remain in Cleveland for 2021, his future hardly matters now.
After endless speculation, the Cleveland Browns did not trade wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. before Tuesday's deadline, indicating the team intends to really see if the Baker Mayfield to Beckham connection can improve. The potential is tantalizing, but the production has been subpar, to say the least.
Beckham owns the Browns highest salary cap hit this season, with fellow WR Jarvis Landry coming in at #2. Cleveland is spending the most cap space on the WR position in the entire NFL, and yet doesn't have any player on pace for even 700 receiving yards.
Yes, the offense is designed to maximize the run game, so the stats from the WRs and tight ends are never going to be boggling, but seven receiving touchdowns through eight games, with one going to fullback Johnny Stanton, one a result of an extremely lucky Hail Mary, and two due to impressive YAC efforts by David Njoku and Demetric Felton.
The quarterback is far from blameless here. In fact, Mayfield is directly responsible for a good amount of the lack of passing game production. He looks nothing like the passer who was arguably one of, if not the league's best from Week 13 in 2020 through Week 1 in 2021. The shoulder injury is likely affecting his play, but it doesn't explain all his struggles away, not by a longshot.
Mayfield's accuracy is not nearly as impressive or consistent as it typically has been. He is far from comfortable in the pocket and panics when he doesn't need to. He attempts to extend plays, often leading to unnecessary hits and holding calls, and he often just runs out of bounds for a loss, unable to create any space due to his subpar athleticism.
The biggest issue with Mayfield right now is how he's seeing the field. He's ignoring open receivers and isn't processing well past his first read; if that's covered, the play breaks down. He seems timid and unwilling to make throws that could be deemed somewhat risky, or even anticipatory. Beckham is not the only one affected by this, but he's perhaps the biggest culprit. In every game he's played this season, there are plenty of examples where he's created significant separation down the field, while Mayfield is looking in the opposite direction.
It would seem odd that a player of Beckham's caliber is not featured on more primary reads, especially with how the offensive staff feels about him. Nothing about the situation makes sense, and the idea that Beckham's presence on the field somehow messes with Mayfield's mind and makes him forget he's good is just ridiculous.
Beckham has had issues with drops this year. That is unacceptable. Landry also has a higher drop rate than Beckham, as he did in 2020. He gets blamed by the fanbase for mistakes that Mayfield makes. It does make sense that Beckham is held to a high standard; his reputation as a player precedes him, and he is being paid to produce at an elite level. Of course he needs to catch the ball better than he has, but how can he be blamed for a lack of production if he's getting open as well as any other receiver in the league and his quarterback is simply not getting him the ball?
Mayfield officially attempted 31 passes in the loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, and Beckham was targeted once on a screen pass. That's a 3% target share for a $15 million salary. It just doesn't add up. And he was open plenty, as usual. It's frustrating to watch live and even more so when reviewing the All-22 film later. This is the same stuff that happened in 2020 before Mayfield took the next step, and it's very concerning.
It's becoming increasingly difficult to see either Beckham or Landry back with the team in 2022. Regardless of how good they are or can be, their salaries are simply too large to justify given the usage of WRs in this scheme, especially with the upcoming contracts the team will be handing out. The room will likely undergo a nearly complete makeover prior to next season, with Donovan Peoples-Jones and Anthony Schwartz as the only holdovers. Younger, cheaper, and more versatile skillsets are needed, and by then, hopefully Mayfield will have regained his form.
And that's the most important thing right now. Contract negotiations have been rumored since last year, but nothing has happened, and from the Browns perspective, that's a good thing. There are 53 games of data on Mayfield, which should be more than enough to make a decision on his long-term future, but it's not.
There have been so many important variables at play through each step of Mayfield's career that it's nearly impossible to evaluate him in a vacuum. The player that he was towards the end of 2020 is one who can elevate a roster and win multiple Super Bowls. The one he's been for most this season isn't worth extending.
We've all seen what Mayfield's best looks like, and it's some of the best football in the NFL. But that has not happened consistently enough, and while there have been plenty of outside factors, the bottom line is committing financially to him to the tune of $30 million or more annually is not something this team can do right now. That doesn't mean he isn't the franchise quarterback and can't rebound in 2022, earning a long-term deal. It just means he hasn't done that yet, and an informed, confident decision cannot yet be reached.
The numbers may lie, but the difference in Mayfield's play with and without Beckham is staggering. The season is far from over, and the playoffs are still very much in reach. But the priority for the front office and coaching staff must be to determine whether or not Mayfield is the guy. The shoulder injury unfortunately throws a wrench into things, but if Mayfield can play, he can play. It's not an excuse for mental mistakes that shouldn't be happening so frequently for a fourth-year passer in his second season in the system.
Odell Beckham Jr. may be garnering the headlines, but his future doesn't really matter anymore. Everything hinges on Baker Mayfield, and whether he can figure things out or not. If he can, this team can win a Super Bowl. If not...it's better not to think about that. And that thought was the furthest thing from fans' minds following last season.
READ MORE: Browns Reportedly Kicked Tires on Odell Beckham Jr. Trade
