Peace of Mind at Quarterback Position is Expensive
As the Cleveland Browns are in the process of negotiating contract extensions with players, notably Baker Mayfield, various elements are weighing in on how deserving Mayfield is of an extension, which ignores the real conversation teams are having. Either extend Mayfield now or don't extend him at all, because waiting and then extending him puts the team at a competitive disadvantage.
If the Browns extend Mayfield now, preferably before the Baltimore Ravens extend Lamar Jackson or the Buffalo Bills sign Josh Allen, they will get Mayfield at a lower but still lucrative rate, which provides them an advantage when it comes to the salary cap.
The argument that the Browns should wait another year before extending Mayfield is backward. If Mayfield goes on to be an All-Pro or win the MVP, he's going to get a stupidly large contract and the Browns get peace of mind for $30 million or more over the life of the contract.
Over a five-year contract, if it's an extra $30 million, that's an average of $6 million per year on the salary cap. $6 million per year could provide Mayfield and the Browns more help. If Mayfield is good but not quite great and you're still going to end up extending him, you're now asking him to do more with less help around him.
How does that make any sense? That's not even factor in the the salary cap increasing year over year.
So if the Browns weren't sure about Mayfield now, they should have planned for moving on from Mayfield after this year. That's the only logical plan of attack for this type of decision.
The fact is the Browns are committed to Mayfield and have been for a while, even if the public wasn't so sure. They're going to extend him as soon as they can, because they understand the implications in terms of the salary cap.
Like the Philadelphia Eagles and the Baltimore Ravens, the Browns want to pay their players early. The Browns save money over the life of the contract and the player gets financial security earlier as well as certainty in terms of their career.
The Browns have already shown the value of this type of planning with their handling of Myles Garrett. Garrett signed a 5 year, $125 million that doesn't start until 2022 followed by the Los Angeles Chargers signing Joey Bosa to a 5 year, $127 million that starts in 2021. The Chargers waited until Bosa's option year to negotiate his extension while the Browns negotiated Garrett's entering year four.
Bosa ended up getting $10 million over the life of the deal, largely because it was his turn, an average difference of $2 million annually. When adding in a salary cap that has increased at around an average of 10 percent per year, the Browns end up saving more than that per year.
The 2022 salary cap could be as high as $208.2 million. Even if we just figure a 10 percent increase over five years, likely a conservative estimate, it makes a difference. The contract figures that aren't based on averages but direct figures each year, but the Browns still end up with an advantage and extra operating room over the life of the contracts.
| Year | Estimated Salary Cap | Bosa Impact on Cap | Garrerr Impact on Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
2021 | $208.2M | 10.9% | Option Year |
2022 | $229.02M | 12.3% | 5.6% |
2023 | $251.92M | 12.3% | 11.5% |
2024 | $277.11M | 10.4% | 11.5% |
2025 | $304.82M | 8.3% | 9% |
2026 | $335.3M | Contract Expired | 8.5% |
With new broadcasting rights, the revenue for the league might go up higher faster, which would make the salary cap increase more per year. Even just an average of $2 million can be a surprisingly impactful. If it's $6 million per year, the impact becomes more significant in terms of how a team can operate.
Is there a risk, betting on players that perhaps could stop improving, take a step backward or suffer a career altering injury? Absolutely. Are those factors present a year later? Yes.
Teams are betting on players based on data and projections in either scenario, so they are incentivized to bet early to reduce the financial impact. If Mayfield was coming off a Pro Bowl season, it might give skeptics a warm and fuzzy feeling about extending him, but the reality is since the Browns have decided Mayfield is their guy, now's the time to sign him.
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