Buccaneers vs. Bills: Three Matchups to Watch

There will be plenty of eyes on this week's Buccaneers-Bills matchup, as it's one of the week's premier games. Both teams have exceptional offenses and physical defenses when they're playing at their best. This will be a great game if both squads live up to their standards on Sunday.

But even if the product stinks as a whole, you can bet the following matchups will be fun enough that they'll provide plenty of entertainment to offset the overall result.

3. CB Carlton Davis III vs. WR Stefon Diggs

The Bills offense hasn't been the definition of consistency in 2021, but Diggs has remained steady as the team's No. 1 target in the passing game. He isn't putting up the numbers he did last year, but he's still 10th in receptions and receiving yards and tied for eighth with seven receiving touchdowns. Per Pro Football Focus, he's fourth in yards per route run among receivers with at least 100 targets and Josh Allen's quarterback rating of 117.5 when he targets Diggs is the seventh-highest rating among qualifying receivers.

Davis made his first start since injuring his quad last week against the Falcons and looked good in the return. He finished the game with three tackles, three pass breakups, and one fumble recovery. PFF says that he allowed just three receptions on eight targets for 41 yards against the Falcons, but 30 of said yards came on an incredible, turn-around, one-handed reception by Olamide Zacchaeus.

Davis had good coverage, Zacchaeus just simply made a play, as you can see below at the 1:44 mark:

Who made the best catch of Week 13? 👀 pic.twitter.com/rUFRhKA0xW
— NFL (@NFL) December 8, 2021

Overall, per PFF, Davis has allowed just 53.3% of passes thrown his way to be completed for 161 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, which gives quarterbacks a 77.1 rating when targeting Davis in coverage in 2021.

Both players are physical, smart, and big. They matchup very well with each other and it won't be a surprise if they trade blows on a consistent basis.

Davis plays on the left side of the defense, so he'll see a healthy dose of Diggs, and likewise with Diggs. Expect a brawl when these two face off on Sunday.

2. C Mitch Morse vs. DL Vita Vea

Morse is a solid center, but he's going to have his hands full with Vea on Sunday.

And how this matchup shakes out will go a long way in determining the effectiveness of the Bills offense. Allen's production dips tremendously when he's under pressure-like all quarterbacks- and when he's off, the entire Bills offense suffers.

It's only a snippet, but Sports Info Solutions has Allen's positive play rate at 56.9% and his EPA/dropback at 0.23/dropback when he's not pressured. Those numbers drop to 33.6% and -0.26 EPA/dropback, respectively, when Allen is pressured.

It's also no surprise that three of Allen's four worst performances from a total EPA standpoint came during the three games in which he was pressured the most (Jags, Steelers, Week 2 vs. Dolphins). The Bills also scored a whopping 22 combined points in those three games.

Vea's presence not only allows the Bucs to get pressure up the middle, but he allows Todd Bowles' exotic blitzes and pressure schemes to work at a much more effective level. Vea commands double teams and can beat them, which allows him to make plays while freeing up the Bucs' other pass rushers to get home.

Morse is an above-average in pass protection, so he's likely to present a decent challenge to Vea. How each player handles the run game will be important, as well, but not as nearly as important as getting pressure/not allowing pressure on Allen.

1. QB Josh Allen vs. QB Tom Brady

I get it. These guys aren't going to literally face off against each other, but I'd be remiss if I left either name out of this post. Both players are the reason why their teams are as good as they are and both players will ultimately be the deciding factor in who wins and who loses this weekend.

Allen represents a unique challenge for Tampa Bay. His arm strength, improved accuracy, and mobility have molded him into one of the league's more dynamic quarterbacks. And offensive coordinator Brian Daboll knows how to maximize his efforts.

"When you've got a dual-threat quarterback like Josh [Allen], it's not easy," Bruce Arians said Monday. "They're in empty sets and you're expecting passes and they've got quarterback powers and quarterback counters. He's their leading rusher, just about, and then he can sling it around to all those great receivers he has. So, it is a really big, big challenge defensively for us.

"He just is so unique in the way they run the ball with him. Their back-side sets, where it's 100 percent pass by any other quarterback, there's a really good chance it's a run with him. Brian Daboll does a hell of a job with those quarterback runs."

But as great as Allen can be at times, Brady is still on the other sideline and he is playing arguably the best football of his career. He has his top guy in Rob Gronkowski back and Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and the offensive line continue to help set him up for success.

Make no mistake. Football is a team sport and it takes a team to win. But as previously mentioned, one of these guys is going to be the main reason why their respective team wins this game.

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