Buccaneers vs. Chiefs: Score and MVP Predictions for the Super Bowl

This one is for all the marbles.

Super Bowl LV is set to kickoff at 6:30 P.M. on Sunday night just over 24 hours following this post. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the first team in NFL history to host their own Super Bowl, at Raymond James Stadium, which is expected to seat 22,500 fans for the game after a mostly fan-less 2020 season amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Will that home-field, loud-crowd advantage be enough to send the Bucs to the Promised Land? The Sports Illustrated-AllBucs staff, along with Joshua Brisco of SI's Arrowhead Report and John Garcia, Jr. of SI All-American, leave their predictions below.

The line is currently set at -3 in favor of Kansas City, per OddsShark, with an over/under of 56.

Zach Goodall: Chiefs 28, Buccaneers 27

MVP: Travis Kelce

Oh, so close.

I predict that will be the feeling in the Tampa Bay area come late Sunday night. The Buccaneers have grown tremendously on both sides of the ball since the last time they hosted the Chiefs in Week 12, a game that ended in a three-point deficit but was controlled by Kansas City into the fourth quarter.

It won't be as one-sided on the field this time around as such, but even after creating seven turnovers this season, I still don't know if Tampa Bay is capable of forcing Patrick Mahomes into the crucial, game-changing turnover or two that will be necessary like we've seen in previous playoff contests.

The Bucs generated ample pressure on Mahomes previously, but sacked him only twice and forced a fumble in the second quarter while already down 17 points - Tampa Bay will need plenty more production from the pass rush.

Expect both teams to start fast, and for the Bucs to appear competent offensively to start the game after averaging 2.8 yards per play in the first quarter of Week 12. They'll need to do so in order to stand a chance, but it can be expected after Tom Brady has thrown 19 touchdowns in the last seven games and Tampa Bay's offense has clicked.

My MVP pick goes to Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce, who I foresee scoring two touchdowns while Tampa Bay puts additional focus on wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who posted 269 yards and three scores against the Bucs just eight games ago.

The Bucs have all the momentum in the world, riding a seven-game winning streak into the Super Bowl. Is that enough to take down the explosive, reigning Super Bowl champs? Unfortunately, I'll believe it when I see it.

Jason Beede: Buccaneers 24, Chiefs 21

MVP: WR Mike Evans

The last time the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs met at Raymond James Stadium, quarterback Patrick Mahomes and wide receiver Tyreek Hill started the game on another level.

Hill had seven catches for 203 yards and two touchdowns in the first quarter alone and the Chiefs led by two scores at halftime. While Kansas City left Tampa Bay with a win, the Bucs didn’t go down without a fight as quarterback Tom Brady hit wide receiver, Mike Evans, for two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, but came up short 27-24 at home.

Fast forward to Super Bowl LV and the Bucs haven’t lost since the Week 12 matchup. Riding a seven-game win streak, that includes three straight playoff games on the road against three Division Champs, the Bucs are playing some of their best football on both sides of the ball. And it’s Tampa Bay’s stout defense that will make the difference on Sunday.

The Bucs have forced seven turnovers, including three straight games with an interception from Sean Murphy-Bunting, to go along with seven total sacks against opposing quarterbacks. I don’t think the Bucs will pick off Mahomes the same way they recorded four INTs in the Divisional Round vs. Drew Brees nor will they sack him five times the same way they got to Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers in the NFC Championship, however, enough pressure is bound to force a turnover or two.

Between an impressive multi-touchdown performance by Evans and just enough from Tampa Bay’s defense to slow Mahomes and Co. I believe the Bucs will win the Super Bowl at home 24-21 over the Chiefs.

Joshua Brisco (SI's Arrowhead Report): Chiefs 34, Buccaneers 24

MVP: Patrick Mahomes, with TE Travis Kelce as a dark-horse pick

Offensively, the Chiefs just have to be themselves and get one more solid performance out of their injury-ravaged offensive line. With two weeks for Andy Reid to prepare for the Buccaneers' pass rush and to scheme up ways to keep Patrick Mahomes clean, I don't see the offense struggling in a significant way, despite the talent in the Bucs' front four. I expect Tyreek Hill to have big plays but for Travis Kelce to present the Bucs' biggest problem. Even if Tampa contains the deep shots that put them behind in the first quarter when these two teams met in the regular season, I don't know how they keep up with Kelce. I believe a consistent offensive performance plus a few big plays will prove to be too much for Tampa's defense.

On the other side of the ball, Tampa certainly has a chance to meet the Chiefs' offensive pace if they stay aggressive on fourth downs and in the red zone, pushing for touchdowns and not settling for field goals. Ultimately, though, the Chiefs' secondary has earned my trust, especially in the last two games with the return of full-speed safety Juan Thornhill alongside Tyrann Mathieu, and I think the defensive backs will be successful in making it difficult for Tom Brady to consistently find Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and the tight ends.

Ultimately, I'm picking the Chiefs to win 34-24 in a high-octane, highly entertaining Super Bowl.

John Garcia, Jr. (SI All-American): Buccaneers 24, Chiefs 21

MVP: LB Devin White

Like many, I’m sure, trying to peg down how this game will go hasn’t been very easy. I tend to believe the regular season is what it is, so my approach all but eliminates the first matchup between the Chiefs and Bucs. That said, there was a clear vulnerability by the Tampa secondary that day, something they have worked into a team strength since. Coupled with the cleaner bill of health for the defense, particularly at safety, they will have the chance to contend against big plays at a higher clip. With a more methodical game anticipated, perhaps in part due to the weather, give me the Bucs run and run defense over KC’s in a surprising Super Bowl.

Mahomes and Brady will each turn the ball over, at least once, and a Bucs defensive score or set-up will be the difference in a game we won’t soon forget.

Donavon Keiser: Buccaneers 38, Chiefs 34

MVP: QB Tom Brady

We have finally made it, the last NFL football game of the 2020-21 season, which has been filled with ups and downs much in part due to the ongoing COVID pandemic.

As the season has worn on, the Buccaneers have shown tremendous improvement as they have played some of their best football in recent weeks, beating a gauntlet of NFC teams in the playoffs, including the Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, and Washington Football Team.

The Tampa Bay defense has stepped up when needed the most, most notably the secondary. The secondary will be key against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, as Tyreek Hill went nuclear in the first quarter of the first matchup, and disappeared for much of the game afterward. I have faith that Todd Bowles will study film carefully and base the gameplan off of how Hill was stopped after going on his three-touchdown tear, paired with the fact that the Chiefs offensive line is hurting.

With the Bucs pass rush playing how they have been and the Chiefs being down multiple offensive linemen, it will come down to Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce to make the most important plays for Kansas City. This is seriously one of the most dangerous offenses to ever reach the Super Bowl and will keep Tampa's hands full all day long.

On Offense, Tampa should find a bit of trouble with Kansas City's hard-nosed defense, highlighted by guys like Chris Jones, L'Jarius Sneed, and Tyrann Mathieu. Tampa has the weapons to compete as their offense is filled with depth and talent, but they must limit turnovers and make the most of each possession to keep the ball from the almighty Chiefs O.

At the end of the day, I simply can't pick against the G.O.A.T that is Tom Brady. Patrick Mahomes very well could go down with an even better legacy than Brady, but that time has not come just yet. Behind a battered offensive line with a swarming Bucs pass rush, Tampa should do just enough to get the ball into Brady's hands to work his magic once again, winning his seventh Super Bowl, this time as a Tampa Bay Buccaneer.

On the heels of a refreshed defense, vengeance, and the motivation to be the first team to win a Super Bowl at home, I'm picking Tampa to cover the 3-point spread and win outright, 38-34.