Buccaneers at Jets: Bold Predictions

It's the last two weeks of the season, which means it's time to finish strong when it comes to bold predictions.

Because Lord knows my record could use a bump.

Who steps up this week? Let's dive in.

Bold predictions record through Week 16: 12-48

4. The Bucs finish with more sacks than the Jets have third down conversions

Coming into Week 17, the Jets average 4.7 third down conversions per game while facing an average 12.5 third downs per game. The former number is the eighth-lowest amount of conversions and the latter is tied for 19th.

The Bucs have 44.0 sacks on the year, which is tied for second-best in the NFL and they have the second-most sacks since Week 10. Throw in the league's fifth-best adjusted sack rate and it's easy to see why this bold prediction can be achieved.

Shaquil Barrett's and Jason Pierre-Paul's absences will make this even harder to accomplish and an even bolder prediction when it's all said and done.

3. Tampa Bay scores more points than Zach Wilson's final QBR total

ESPN's QBR metric is pretty useful when it comes to evaluating quarterback play. So far in 2021, Wilson has a 28.3 rating.

On paper, this won't be an easy game for Wilson, especially since Tampa Bay's secondary should be at full health. The front seven is still effective without Barrett and JPP due to Todd Bowles' creative blitz packages and the Jets offensive line is not good and missing starting left tackle Mekhi Becton.

And frankly, Wilson isn't very good. It's the NFL so there's a chance Wilson could pop off against the Bucs, but I'm willing to bet that doesn't happen. In fact, the Bucs make life so tough for Wilson that they will score more points than what he has in terms of QBR.

2. C.J. Mosley has more combined tackles than Tampa Bay's top-2 tacklers

Mosley has 142 tackles in 14 tames, which is good for just a tick over 10 tackles per game. Tampa Bay ran the ball a season-high 31 times against the Panthers and per Pro Football Focus, 17 of Tom Brady's 27 pass attempts were from behind the line of scrimmage to 10 yards. Per Sports Info Solutions, last week also featured Brady's third-lowest intended air yards (248).

I think the Bucs will go with the same game plan this week: run the ball a lot and use the short passing game. Yes Mike Evans and Antonio Brown will play, but it wouldn't be a surprise if they aren't used very often, thus limiting the big play opportunities in Tampa Bay's passing game.

Tampa Bay's game plan will result in Mosley racking up the tackles. Put it this way, Jordan Whitehead and Mike Edwards tied with seven tackles apiece last week. Mosley has had 14 tackles or more twice in the last three weeks.

1. The Bucs rush for 125+ yards for the first time in back-to-back regular season games under Bruce Arians

Leonard Fournette isn't in the lineup, but it didn't matter last week as Ronald Jones II and Ke'Shawn Vaughn combined for over 130 rushing yards during the team's 32-6 win.

The Bucs should have success on the ground again this week and it should come in the form of the aforementioned duo. Per Football Outsiders, the Jets give up the 10th-highest adjusted line yards and per SIS, they give up the seventh-highest EPA/attempt on the ground.

Tampa Bay has never ran for 125+ yards in back-to-back regular season games under Arians, but that will change this weekend as Jones and Vaughn (and maybe even Le'Veon Bell) spearhead the effort.

Stay tuned to AllBucs for further coverage of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and other NFL news and analysis. Follow along on social media at @SIBuccaneers on Twitter and Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sports Illustrated on Facebook.

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