What Does a Perfect Draft Look Like for the Chiefs?
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In last Friday's presser, Kansas City Chiefs general manager Brett Veach masterfully walked the tightrope between keeping his plans in the 2022 NFL Draft close to the chest, but also planting seeds surrounding his viewpoints on targets of interest.
In considering that, he brought forth an interesting thought: despite overseeing 50 combined wins over his four seasons and selecting considerable talent in each of the last three drafts, the pressure is once again on for this front office to be on its A-game.
Mar 1, 2018; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Kansa City Chiefs general manager Brett Veach speaks to the media during the 2018 NFL Combine at the Indianapolis Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Within that 35-minute presser, Veach used the term “flexibility” six times. It’s something the Chiefs have shifted focus to for future years. By virtue of their 12 selections — tied for the NFL-high — it's something they’ll have on Day One. With that many opportunities, it begs the question: what does a “perfect draft” look like for the Chiefs?
This month, seven-round mocks have ramped up. In gathering data from ten of them, one can gather an idea of what expectations are for the Chiefs on a round-for-round basis. In gauging the trends in each, it told the story of three things in particular:
- Attacking the deep EDGE class right away and matching it with a WR or CB.
- Snagging a project, high-potential linebacker in the later rounds.
- Being prepared to use the advantage of their flexibility for a trade-up, should the opportunity arise.
In a perfect world, the Chiefs walk away with players along the lines of Jameson Williams, Arnold Ebiketie, Kaiir Elam, Boye Mafe, Daxton Hill, etc. Under the assumption that they hit on those obvious parameters, here are three other storylines that could contribute to the Chiefs having a “perfect Draft.”
A suitable safety valve for Travis Kelce
Jan 30, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) catches a pass for a touchdown as Cincinnati Bengals free safety Jessie Bates (30) looks on during the first quarter of the AFC Championship Game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
The list of active tight ends with more receiving yards than Travis Kelce stops at two syllables: no-body. Much of this stems from the 32-year-old’s durability. Despite perennially appearing among the NFL’s leaders in target shares, the nine-year veteran has never missed more than a single game in any season, dating back to his second year.
Midway through last season, Kelce was notably dinged up, yet he continued to plug away. Though it’s a long way down the list of needs, a “perfect” draft means that at some point, they add a tight end with a skillset similar enough to Kelce’s that they can buy him opportunities to rest and prolong his career.
One name that immediately stands out is UCLA's Greg Dulcich. Of those imagining the Chiefs selecting a tight end at some point in the 2022 NFL Draft, Dulcich’s name was the only one to come up multiple times. The ability to utilize leverage on vertical routes and showcase deceptive speed are among his highlighted traits. There's also versatility in his snaps; he had 477 inline snaps, but also 191 snaps in the slot, where he had five deep catches last year — the No. 7 rank.
Kansas City’s tight end room is filled with potential. Jody Fortson, a sometimes-forgotten man, is poised to re-arrive after a successful season in a limited fashion. Blake Bell and Noah Gray help stabilize, allowing the Chiefs to run 13 personnel sets along the goal line or work creative sets with two of them. Dulcich is similar to Fortson in that he needs to get bigger, but he’s capable of succeeding in different looks. If not Dulcich, the Chiefs could fortify that room with the likes of Washington’s Cade Otton or Iowa State’s Charlie Kolar, among others.
Other teams address the “most important player” need early:
Jan 30, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) passes the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals during the second quarter of the AFC Championship Game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
If last year’s postseason duel between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen taught us anything, it’s that run-of-the-mill, game-managing quarterbacks aren’t likely to cut it during the path to the postseason. Having a quarterback who can calmly teeter between putting the game on his back and avoiding game-altering mistakes is crucial. The quarterback, in modern terms, is the most important player on the field; it’s also a position the Chiefs have little need to worry about.
On Friday, Veach noted that the Chiefs had 16-18 players on their board as first-round talents. Depending on how the board plays out, he could have his pick of two of them with selections No. 29 and No. 30. The over/under for quarterbacks taken in round one, currently, is slated at 2.5. Though, NFL.com analyst Brian Baldinger sees three at the least.
Teams like the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Pittsburgh Steelers and Detroit Lions, among others, will have that opportunity early on. It could be the difference between trading up to jump ahead of a team like the Green Bay Packers for a receiver or sliding up to acquire a safety — which two of the aforementioned mocks would project — and holding steady.
Experts have been quick to bring up that this year’s QB class isn’t decisively elite, but this was also the same groupthink in considering the 2017 NFL Draft — one that featured generational talents in Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. In short: how high opposing GMs are on this QB class could help determine how low the Chiefs need to move if they covet a specific player.
Hitting at least one bullseye on Day Three:
Dec 5, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs cornerback L'Jarius Sneed (38) warms up against the Denver Broncos before the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
On Friday, Veach made mention of the end of round one and spanning into round two being the “sweet spot” of this NFL Draft. It’s worth noting, though, that a significant part of Kansas City’s core has come on Day Three. This holds particularly true over the last three seasons. The sixth round of last year’s draft provided a potential cornerstone among the offensive line in Trey Smith. The years prior offered L’Jarius Sneed and Rashad Fenton.
Under any circumstance, having a player you drafted at No. 226 play to a standard like Smith did becomes found money. The Chiefs could be positioned to do so again. ESPN.com recently highlighted that the Chiefs were the second-best in terms of finding value in the NFL Draft over the past decade. It also noted that they were the No. 15-ranked team in terms of finding value on Day Three.
This feels noteworthy in how many selections they have. Veach will have six picks between Nos. 121 and 259. One way to think about it: a person with six darts will have a higher chance of hitting a bullseye than someone with one throw. While considering the fact that the Chiefs could certainly trade away some of those later selections, mixing their leverage and flexibility and finding a gem or two could be what opens the title window, even if just slightly more.
