Could the KC Chiefs’ Reliance on Travis Kelce Come Back to Bite Them?
The Kansas City Chiefs' offense goes as Patrick Mahomes does, but Travis Kelce plays a significant role in keeping the line moving as well.
Despite turning 34 last month, Kelce is still the best tight end in the league and is on pace to secure yet another 1,000-yard receiving season. The veteran superstar has a comfortable team lead in targets (72), receptions (57), receiving yards (597) and touchdowns (4), also posting the highest success rate among all pass catchers on the Chiefs' offense. It's been a bit of a boom-or-bust season for Kelce, who has two games with over 100 receiving yards but has no more than 69 in any other contest.
Kansas City is obviously continuing to rely on Kelce to produce, but could it come back to bite them? No other tight end has stepped all the way up, and counting on someone in year No. 11 to carry an offense is risky business. The state of the Chiefs' tight end room is secure, yet something to monitor at the same time.
Joshua Brisco and Jordan Foote start an Arrowhead Report bye-week discussion to assess where Kansas City is at with the position as the season passes its midpoint.
Biggest success
Foote: It's Kelce by default, as always. While the 34-year-old hasn't been the most consistent player this season, he's still pacing for well over 1,000 yards and is head and shoulders above any other pass-catching option on the Chiefs. In eight games played, Kelce is averaging nine targets and seven catches per outing. His yards per reception may be down, but his success rate remains high and his catch percentage is the highest single-season mark of his entire career. When the Chiefs go Kelce's way, good things routinely happen.
Brisco: You covered all of the football stuff, so I'm going to at least mention Taylor Swift. (Also because, as we'll discuss, I don't think there's another real "success" from the TE group.) Kelce has reached international superstar status this season, which has been a genuine treat to watch and cover. It also serves to help the world realize how absolutely excellent Kelce has been throughout his career. It may seem silly if you're a die-hard Chiefs fan, but there's an entire portion of the world who wouldn't even recognize the names of Rob Gronkowski or Tony Gonzalez who now know at least a few members of the Kelce family. That'll be a fun wrinkle when it's time to debate Kelce's G.O.A.T. status.
Biggest shortcoming
Foote: This may be a cop-out answer where I'm finding a loophole, but this was supposed to be the year in which the Chiefs had enough elsewhere on offense and Kelce didn't get relied on a ton. Instead, he is getting consistently double-teamed by the opposition and the wide receiver room isn't doing anything to help take some attention off him. Kansas City's biggest failure at tight end was not finding a way to make life easier for Kelce. It's still as difficult as ever, which shouldn't be the case for someone who's already dealt with a bone bruise and ankle sprain this season and is in his 11th year in the league.
Brisco: I used the loophole for the biggest success, so you earned that one. And you're right, so I'll take the rest of the tight end group. Noah Gray has taken almost 59% of the Chiefs' offensive snaps this year, and Blake Bell has taken almost 25%. We can talk about Gray next, but he and Bell have combined for 21 catches in an offense with plenty of room for someone to step up. Bell is obviously a blocking-first tight end and Gray is staying on the field, which bodes well for his development. Mahomes even missed an open Gray on a would-be chunk play. It's not a disaster, but it's all business as usual, which feels like a bit of a "shortcoming" when the entire offense has been uninspiring.
Biggest question(s) remaining this season
Foote: Kelce is a known commodity — what does Noah Gray's role look like the rest of the way? The former fifth-round pick is enjoying a solid third season, on pace to surpass his 2022 production later this year. He had two three-reception games to begin the season and has been targeted three times in each of his last two contests, although his involvement in the offense has varied in between. Gray is posting career-high percentages in pre-snap slot or wide alignments, per Pro Football Focus, indicating that he's trusted a bit more. On an expected 50% or more of the team's offensive snaps, does that continue after the bye?
Brisco: I was shocked to realize that Gray has the fifth-most receiving yards on the team. The common theme here is that it's damning with faint praise, but about 24 yards per game is reasonable production for a TE2 when Kelce is TE1. Gray is under contract through the 2024 season, so his projections matter both for this year's offense and for the Chiefs' long-term plans. My question: Will the Chiefs leave this season planning to invest heavily at tight end in the offseason? They want to keep Kelce around for as long as possible, which means limiting his snaps in his mid-30s. Will Gray become a true co-star alongside Kelce before the end of his rookie contract, or is he best as a clear No. 2, signaling that it's time for the Chiefs to grab one of the top TEs in the 2024 NFL Draft?
