Chris Jones Is a Defensive Player of the Year Candidate

Chris Jones has not only been one of the best Kansas City Chiefs defenders this season, but also one of the best defensive players in the entire NFL. Jones has tweeted about manifesting himself winning the league's Defensive Player of the Year award, and this might be his best chance to do so. He's playing the best football of his career, and he has the stats to put him in the conversation.

DPOY...
— Chris Jones (@StoneColdJones) May 27, 2022

Historically, there have been eight defensive tackles to win the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year award. However, since the turn of the century, there has only been one to win it: Aaron Donald, who has won three times (2017, 2018, 2020). Donald is the best historical comparison for Jones trying to win this award.

In the three seasons in which Donald won the award, he averaged 15 sacks, 18 tackles for loss, 98 quarterback pressures and four forced fumbles. Currently, Jones is on pace for seven sacks, 14 tackles for loss, 68 quarterback pressures and three forced fumbles — well behind Donald's precedent. However, Jones is doing what Donald did every year he won the award. He is the highest-graded defensive player in the league, according to Pro Football Focus.

Though PFF has flaws and shouldn't be used as the end-all-be-all, it has become increasingly popular with the mainstream media and award voters alike. We see it used on the weekly Sunday Night Football broadcast, making more people aware of the platform. For someone like Jones, who has never gotten the recognition he deserved, being rated the best defensive player on a national platform is huge.

Chris Jones: The best defender in football this season pic.twitter.com/fRx3LQvHUQ
— PFF (@PFF) October 12, 2022

Looking at the current landscape of the competition for the award, the two current favorites are Micah Parsons of the Dallas Cowboys and Nick Bosa of the San Francisco 49ers. They both have six sacks in the season's first five weeks. One advantage that they have over Jones is their surrounding pieces have been healthy. The Chiefs have missed Trent McDuffie, Willie Gay Jr. and Mike Danna for a significant part of the season. Jones is also playing next to a rookie in George Karlaftis, who should get better throughout the season, which could free up better looks for Jones.

The surrounding pieces certainly help elevate a Defensive Player of the Year-caliber player, but team defense isn't as crucial in voting as individual statistics are. This works in Jones's favor because while the Chiefs have an improved defense, they aren't a top-10 unit at the moment. The critical team statistics here are winning and making the playoffs. Currently, the Chiefs boast a 4-1 record and lead their division. If they continue down this path and win a seventh-consecutive division title, it will help Jones in the Defensive Player of the Year discussion.

Double team rate at defensive tackle (x) by pass rush win rate at defensive tackle (y), updated through Week 5.

-It's what we usually call the Aaron Donald chart...but right now might be the Chris Jones chart.

-Hello Maliek Collins and DaQuan Jones! pic.twitter.com/yq4kqek6TW
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) October 13, 2022

Part of why there is reason to believe Chris Jones will be in the conversation at the end of the year is the analytics are showing that he's outperforming his counting stats. He currently has the highest win rate of any defensive tackle in the league, yet he only has two sacks. Players with a lower win rate than him have four or more sacks.

Jones has also played a slate of quarterbacks that are disadvantageous for pass rushers. Tom Brady and Justin Hebert have two of the lowest snap-to-throw times in the league. Kyler Murray is a mobile quarterback who will tuck it and run at the sight of pressure. With a more favorable schedule upcoming, Jones could rack up monster numbers before the season's end.

The last thing that should be mentioned about the Chiefs' defensive tackle is what happened on Monday night. Jones was robbed of possibly the best defensive play across the entire NFL up to this point of the 2022 campaign. He was lined up at defensive end, beat the tackle easily, forced a fumble and had possession of the ball before landing on the ground. While the entire world was in awe of the spectacular play, the referees thought differently and called roughing the passer.

Having that play on his resume would have significantly helped Jones, but the hope is it will all even out in the end and he ends the season with 12-plus sacks. If that happens, especially considering everything else, it'd put his name squarely in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation.

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