Know the KC Chiefs' Week 11 Opponent: Key Facts About the Philadelphia Eagles
When the Kansas City Chiefs officially unveiled their schedule in mid-May, it’s likely that every eye scanned — and then paused — upon the sight of that Nov. 20 slugfest against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Remembering the fireworks from Super Bowl LVII, there was the hope that if both teams could sustain health over the season’s opening months, Week 11’s Monday Night Football tilt could be one for the ages.
It’s finally arrived. Neither team is completely unscathed, but they’ve maintained enough to boast the No. 1 spots in NFC and AFC respectively. Ahead of NFL history’s ninth-ever regular season rematch from the previous year’s Super Bowl, here’s what’s worth knowing.
One obvious factor: The bye week's impact
Perhaps Jalen Hurts said it best two weeks ago: “Selfishly, I don’t think the bye week could have come at a better time.”
Despite Kansas City and Philadelphia’s competitive interests, it’s likely that they at least agree on the convenience of the bye week’s timing. Beneath that combined 15-3 record are an assortment of injuries, hiccups on one side of the ball — defense for the Eagles, offense for the Chiefs — and the simple need to catch one’s breath during the 17-game gauntlet.
There’s been perhaps no coach in league history that has taken advantage of those extra-preparation weeks quite like Andy Reid. Anyone reading this article knew the stat was coming: factoring in both regular-season and postseason bye weeks, Reid is 29-4.
Perhaps the overall output has been overdramatized; dating back to his 2013 arrival, the Chiefs have averaged 28.2 points pre-bye (84 games) compared to 27.6 post-bye (97 games, including postseason), but the record speaks for itself.
One could argue that Kansas City enters with a cleaner bill of health. Every player on the active roster was a full participant in practice this week. Meanwhile, Philadelphia will be without tight end Dallas Goedert (forearm) alongside question marks in regards to their already-shaky secondary.
Both stand to benefit; for Philly, the week off affords time for Hurts to recover from his knee situation, along with an opportunity for the Eagles to continue fine-tuning what was once an unstoppable red-zone offense. Those adjustments could decide Monday’s outcome.
One subtle factor: How often is revenge best served?
As noted above, Monday’s tilt will be just the ninth time in NFL history that the previous season’s Super Bowl offered a rematch in the ensuing regular season. Subscribing to the “revenge factor” is tempting, but defending Super Bowl champions own a 6-2 record in the subsequent head-to-head meetings.
It’s fascinating to consider how many strength-on-strength matchups Monday’s game offers. The Eagles claim the NFL’s best third-down offense, converting at exactly 50%; the Chiefs allow the fewest yards per play (3.0) on third downs. Kansas City’s defensive pass rush is No. 3 in sacks (30); they play a Philadelphia offense that allows just 2.4 sacks per game. Chris Jones even suggests the Chiefs have a rugby-style answer to the Eagles’ tush-push.
Philadelphia has said all of the right things about preparing for this game as if it were any other. And, though it’s often difficult to believe it, they’ve walked the walk. Only eight teams in NFL history have returned to the Super Bowl after losing it, something they appear positioned to do.
There are, perhaps, some ways they can use the Eagles’ aggressiveness against them. Philadelphia plays man-to-man coverage at the seventh-highest rate (30.9%). Kadarius Toney urges you to remember how that went in February. It also wasn’t long ago that Philadelphia got overly aggressive, chasing a win instead of trusting its defense in its lone loss to the Jets.
Perhaps “revenge” and being overly ambitious are overvalued. But it remains something to watch for ahead of the rematch.
X-Factor: L’Jarius Sneed
Adjusting to life without Goedert, it’s likely Philadelphia schemes up ways to pepper its seasoned receivers with even more targets over the next four weeks. Despite being one of just nine players across the NFL to command at least 10 targets per game, star wideout A.J. Brown immediately comes to mind.
Brown is one of just two players to surpass the 1,000-yard barrier and if not for Tyreek Hill, his case for 2023’s No. 1 wideout and Offensive Player of the Year might be as defined as any. Consider this the long way of saying that L’Jarius Sneed has quite the matchup on his hands.
According to ESPN’s Mike Clay, Brown has aligned on the perimeter on 78% of his snaps, Sneed’s neighborhood. “Sneed Island” hasn’t quite caught on, but the Chiefs cornerback has logged 322 coverage snaps without allowing a score. In previous iterations of this “Know the Opponent” column, we’ve discussed how minimal results have been for No. 1 receivers against the Chiefs (i.e. Calvin Ridley, DJ Moore, etc).
Both Brown and Sneed are capable of holding their own against any player opposite them, but perhaps it’s worth noting that the two biggest plays from Brown’s six-catch, 96-yard, one-touchdown performance in the Super Bowl came against other corners. There’s, of course, his corner route touchdown in double-coverage against Trent McDuffie and Juan Thornhill.
The other came in on a diamond release, forcing Jaylen Watson to overcommit his hips to a downfield route before pivoting into a slant.
A season wiser, the likes of McDuffie and Watson will need to be prepared to deal with Philadelphia creating opportunities for Brown, as well as DeVonta Smith. Only three receivers have run 100% of their team’s routes since Week 9, and they are two of them. Nonetheless, the Brown vs. Sneed duel could be among the year’s best.
DVOA Ranks
- Chiefs: No. 3 in total DVOA | Eagles: No. 9 in total DVOA
- Chiefs: No. 6 in offensive DVOA | Eagles: No. 7 in offensive DVOA
- Chiefs: No. 3 in defensive DVOA | Eagles: No. 19 in defensive DVOA
- Chiefs: No. 6 in special teams DVOA | Eagles: No. 8 in special teams DVOA
Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Chiefs 24
