Exposing False Theories

If you can believe it, the Redskins will go over a calendar month without scoring a touchdown.

The last one? Sunday October 13th in Miami.

Their next chance? Sunday November 17th against the New York Jets and the man they tried to hire as defensive coordinator this off-season, Gregg Williams, who chose "Gang Green" and Adam Gase over returning to the district.

It's been 204:42 minutes of playing time (if my horrible math is correct) since scoring their last touchdown at 9:42 of the third quarter, in their only win of the year in Miami.

There's many reasons as we mentioned here.

One of the reasons is NOT because they have chose to run the ball more often in the last month, despite some altered statistics that would tell you that is exactly the problem.

Update:

Redskins averaged 17.6 rush attempts per game under Jay Gruden in 2019, scoring 14.6 points per contest.

Under Bill Callahan the team is averaging 24.5 rush attempts per game but only 8.8 points per game.

But sure, keep focusing on the run.....
— Neil Greenberg (@ngreenberg) November 4, 2019

As usual, with statistics, proper context is needed. It's not as simple as it looks.

Bill Callahan took over as Washington's interim head coach starting in Week 6. Since then Redskins are scoring the fewest points per drive in the NFL. But yes @Russellmania621 keep touting the run game. pic.twitter.com/Z2NIYBrseV
— Neil Greenberg (@ngreenberg) November 4, 2019

Despite attempts to boil it down to one thing or the other - I ask you to consider a different path. To use common sense. It's virtually undefeated.

The opponents in the last three games have been top-five defenses. That's indisputable.

Those that say the Redskins should pass the ball significantly more because league-wide trends and data suggest that they should are quite honestly missing the reality.

If the Redskins had a good quarterback situation and were healthy on offense, they would. They don't, so they smartly choose to expose their weaknesses less.

Just one example from Sunday in Buffalo:

The #Redskins threw the ball EIGHT times in the first half vs. #Bills. They dropped back nine times (sacked once).
They scored SIX points on two FG's.

In the 2nd half, they passed the ball 14 times & were sacked three times, for 17 total pass drops.

They scored THREE points.
— Chris Russell AKA the 🐓🐓! (@Russellmania621) November 3, 2019

As the Redskins threw the ball more, sure they made a few plays but just as many negative plays and still no touchdowns.

The Bills shut down the run and dared/forced Dwayne Haskins to beat them. He couldn't and they knew it.

It's not really Haskins fault either. When you're one-dimensional and pass happy against a good pass rush and a tremendous secondary, you're not going to succeed often.

By running, you shorten the game and ideally control the clock. You give your defense a much needed break. You provide opportunities to effectively sell play-action better than a pass-heavy or dominated attack.

Through nine weeks of the NFL season - the top five rushing attacks (yards per game) are Baltimore, San Francisco, Minnesota, Dallas and Houston. Those five teams are a combined (31-11).

Four of those five are in first place and Minnesota is a game off the pace.

In rushing yards per play, the top five running offenses are Baltimore, Cleveland, Carolina, Arizona and Houston. Those five teams are a combined (22-19).

Sure, you are always going to run the ball more when protecting a lead, but the notion that you don't win games by running or that points don't come from rushing the football is absurd too.

Three of the top-six highest scoring teams in the NFL this year are in the top-ten in rushing yards per game (Baltimore, San Francisco and Seattle). Those three teams all rank in the top-13 of a 32 team league in rushing yards per play.

You might be saying to yourself - sure - running the ball is good when you're effective running the ball.

You're right! The Redskins have been effective running it.

Bill Callahan's influence has been undeniable. In his four games as the head coach, Washington has run for 145 (Miami), 104 (San Francisco), 85 (Minnesota) and 127 (Buffalo).

A total of 461 yards over four games or 115.25 per game. That's on 98 total rushing attempts or an average of 4.70 yards per attempt.

That average would put the Redskins at 10th in the NFL, if they had done that for the entire year.

Instead, the Redskins stubbornly tried to have a downfield passing attack that worked once and racked up 344 yards with 145 of those coming in Jay Gruden's final game.

344 yards on 88 attempts in five Gruden called games for a per game average of 68.8 yards per game and a 3.90 per attempt average.

Under Gruden, they racked up 73 points in five games or an average of 14.6 points per game. Under Callahan, the Redskins are averaging just 8.6 points per game.

However, we must keep in mind that in the first three games of the season, the Redskins scored four "garbage-time" touchdowns that ultimately had no impact on the result.

They scored with :06 left in Philadelphia to make it 32-27. They were down 12.

Against the Cowboys in the home opener, they were down 31-14 until a filler score with 2:17 left. That's 14 points that are empty calories.

In week three on Monday Night Football, they were down 28-3 when they scored two touchdowns in the third and fourth quarter to make it semi-respectable. They were still down 13 points after the 2nd score.

The point is this - that's four touchdowns and two extra points (26 points total) that meant nothing at all. NOTHING.

If you take those 26 points away (because they are meaningless filler), the Redskins had 47 points over five games that had any legitimate impact. That's 9.4 points per game or slightly better than what Callahan's group is averaging.

In other words, the offense sucks just the same under Callahan as it did under Gruden this year. It's not because they're running more.

It's because their quarterbacks are mediocre at best and the opponents the last three weeks and four of the past five weeks have been brutal.

That's the truth. Period.

Add us as a preferred source on Google